The good, the bad, and the ugly from the Cardinals 2024 Winter Meetings

The 2024 MLB Winter Meetings have officially concluded in Dallas, Texas. While the St. Louis Cardinals were present and visible during the industry's most important event of the offseason, the meetings came and went without any official action from the club.

I was originally going to "grade" the Winter Meetings from the Cardinals' perspective, but I don't think it's completely fair to say that a lack of movement during the meetings is deserving of any letter grade. At best, the Cardinals' Winter Meetings should be seen as an "incomplete" assignment, where the official grade will come as the offseason continues on and they do or don't make certain moves in response to what happened this week.

I do think we can look at their Winter Meetings through the lens of the "good, the bad, and the ugly" though. Even if we can't give them a letter grade, there are trends or results from the meetings that play into the Cardinals' favor or are setting a bad tone for things to come, and I want to briefly recap all of those things for us.

The Good

The Cardinals get lottery luck, jump into the top five in the 2025 MLB Draft

The single best thing to happen to the Cardinals at the Winter Meetings was jumping to the fifth overall pick in the Draft Lottery. Due to their winning season in 2024, the Cardinals were projected to select outside the top ten in next year's draft, but luck was on their side as they jumped up the draft order.

It's far too early to say who the Cardinals may draft with that selection, and there is no guarantee that the club will get a player who becomes a key part of their future. We see busts left and right at the top of drafts all the time. What does matter here for the Cardinals though is the opportunity.

Frankly, drafting in the top five affords clubs the chance to select players who have elite tools and projectability off the bat that players lower in the draft may not have. Given the fact that Chaim Bloom is transforming their player development right now as well, there is reason to believe the Cardinals are trending in the right direction in how they handle young talent, and that makes this pick even more exciting (more on Bloom in a moment).

Erick Fedde's trade value rose siginifcantly*

*Which only matters if the Cardinals do the smart thing and trade him. Big asterisk!

Ever since the Cardinals proclaimed their plans of a reset this offseason, Erick Fedde became a clear and obvious trade candidate. Set to make just $7.5 million next year, Fedde is coming off a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts, reinventing himself into a clear number three starter. He was a valuable piece back in October, but I would argue his value has only increased since then.

Let me list out some of the contracts that have been handed out to starting pitchers this offseason...

Yusei Kikuchi - 3yr/$63m
Nathan Eovaldi - 3yr/$75m
Frankie Montas - 2yr/$34m
Luis Severino - 3yr/$67m
Nick Martinez - 1yr/$21.05m
Matthew Boyd - 2yr/$29m
Clay Holmes - 3yr/$38m

The price of pitching is insane right now. Middle-of-the-rotation starters require multi-year deals with AAVs ranging from $17m to $22m. Back-end arms are getting deals north of $14 million annually as well. Everyone needs pitching, and as the market continues to thin out, someone like Fedde becomes more and more attractive.

Hopefully, the Cardinals see the opportunity as well and find a new home for Fedde this offseason. Out of all of their tradable assets, Fedde may have the most suitors of anyone and may even have the highest trade value.

Chaim Bloom's rebuild of the Red Sox farm system gives hope for Cardinals' future

Look over at Boston! The Red Sox just traded for the best starter available on the trade market and were able to do so because of the elite farm system they have been able to build, most of which was Chaim Bloom's doing.

In the Garrett Crochet trade, the White Sox gave up Kyle Teel, the 25th-rated prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline, Braden Montgomery, their first-round pick in 2024 and the 54th prospect in baseball, as well as two other intriguing prospects. What's even crazier about this is that Teel and Montgomery were only the fourth and fifth-best prospects in the Red Sox system, as they still have Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell who are all viewed as top ten prospects in the game today.

If the Cardinals are going to get back to their winning ways, they are going to need to have homegrown talent produced on their roster in a big way once again. They are also going to need to have the farm system strength to go out and make big trades like this to put them over the top. Bloom's work in Boston positioned the Red Sox to do that, and it is now his job to set the Cardinals up in a similar way.

The Bad

Nolan Arenado's market remains complicated

John Mozeliak did confirm to reporters his intention to trade Nolan Arenado, and while the market for him does seem to be heating up, it is clear that any deal is going to be complicated and highly dependent on what teams truly pivot to him and how much money the Cardinals are willing to eat.

I broke down Arenado's trade value on the site today and Thomas Gauvain provided some potential proposals to each of the rumored teams in on Arenado, but overall, it is going to be a difficult process for the Cardinals to get value back in a deal if they do not send a lot of cash to the club acquiring Arenado. His no-trade clause complicates things further, but it is nice that he reportedly is open to a variety of destinations.

The Cubs heavy interest in Kyle Tucker

On a side note, the Chicago Cubs seem to be the favorites to acquire Kyle Tucker in a trade this offseason. Tucker is arguably a top-ten player in baseball right now, and although they would have to bid against other teams to secure him long-term next offseason, seeing the Cubs add a star like Tucker will sting.

Ryan Helsley's name is not in trade rumors

Devin Williams is drawing trade interest around the league, but Ryan Helsley's name is notably absent from such rumors. It has been reported lately that the Cardinals are now more likely to hold onto Helsley this offseason, which if they are not getting fair offers is not a bad thing in my eyes. But if teams are offering good value for Williams, I would imagine they are offering that as well for Helsley. If a fair offer is presented to the Cardinals for their closer this offseason, they need to take it.

The Ugly

Weird excuse from Mozeliak not to make a Rule 5 selection on a reliever

Just a year after striking gold with Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft, the Cardinals passed on making a selection this year. Honestly, I do not understand why. If the player they selected did not work out, they can always return them to the organization they selected them from later. But what I found even weirder were Mozeliak's comments about the Fernandez pick.

Um, what? Fernandez was one of your three or four best relievers last year and you got him for free? I do not understand why Mozeliak had that as his main takeaway from the Rule 5 last year rather than the fact that their dart throw panned out in a big way. He should have seen that as a reason to go in on a reliever again, not avoid one.

As the contracts continue to get crazier year to year, the Cardinals' odds of going after high-end free agents continue to decrease

Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Max Fried, Willy Adames, soon-to-be Corbin Burnes and Pete Alonso, the market for big-time players continues to rise and rise financially. Yes, the Cardinals have to find a way to play in those waters occasionally in the future, but I do think it is fair to say that for now, the state of the market is going to make it far less likely the Cardinals make big swings like that.

I know the Cardinals have avoided those waters for a while now, but I also think the Tucker trade talks are another example of how the Cardinals may regress in their aggressiveness. The club went out and traded for Paul Goldschmidt while extending him, they basically did the same with Matt Holliday years prior, and they took on Arenado's big deal and convinced him to not opt-out. Now many players don't want to sign an extension right before free agency like Goldschmidt did or players like Mookie Betts have, so that tactic may not work for the Cardinals either anymore.

Did the Brewers just outsmart the Cardinals again?

Lastly, the Brewers did use their Rule 5 selection this year, nabbing left-handed Connor Thomas from the Cardinals' system. While very few people expected Thomas to be selected this year, it is a bit worrisome that an organization as smart in pitching development as the Brewers are saw value in him.

The Brewers have been outclassing the Cardinals for awhile now, and they may have just done so again.