The Cardinals' offense will be capped until they can tap into more power

Overall, the St. Louis Cardinals' offense has been impressive to begin the 2025 season despite their 10-14 start to the year.

Through their first 24 games, the Cardinals rank second in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, eighth in slugging percentage, and fifth in OPS in all of baseball. While they've cooled a bit over the last few weeks (regressing to 16th, 21st, and 24th in those respective areas of the last 15 days), the club has clearly been very impressive to begin the year.

Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar have led the way so far this year, while Ivan Herrera and Thomas Saggese have been incredible in small sample sizes as well. Willson Contreras has heated up over this road trip (.831 OPS over his last 7 games), as has Victor Scott II (.917 OPS in his last week of games). Nolan Gorman has been swinging a nice bat the last two games, and Masyn Winn is back and ready to roll after a brief injured list stint.

This offense has a lot of pieces to compete at a high level this year, but it is clear that their slugging will need to get more consistent in order to get runs across the plate.

The Cardinals' offense needs consistent power to make the most of their on-base skills.

When you look at the Cardinals' roster right now, there are a lot of players you trust to draw a walk or put the bat on the ball, but not enough of their lineup consistently puts the ball over the fence.

Even with a top 10 ranking in slugging percentage, most of that work is being carried by their league-leading 49 doubles. That's an awesome number that will help the offense be in the top half of the league, but their current ranking of 18th in baseball in home runs will limit them from being one of the top 10 or so offenses or better all season long.

Lars Nootbaar and Ivan Herrera are tied for the team lead in home runs with just four, and unfortunately, Herrera has only played in seven games. Missing Herrera as well as Gorman for some time has hurt them in the power department, but the offense needs others to step up as well to truly be a threat with the long ball.

Only the Blue Jays', Royals', and Rockies' team leaders in home runs have hit fewer than four on the year. There are a lot of players on the Cardinals who can hit home runs, but not enough.

Once Willson Contreras has fully bounced back, he can represent a power bat in the lineup. Herrera seemed to be trending that direction this year, but it is probably too early to chalk him up as a big-time power guy as well. Outside of those two, though, where does that top-end power come from?

Nootbaar and Donovan could eclipse 20 home runs this year, but neither is likely (especially Donovan) to sniff 30 in a season. Alec Burleson showed great power in the first half of 2024 but saw his power drop off significantly in the second half and is the only Cardinals regular to not hit a home run yet this year. Jordan Walker is a guy they want to see hit for power long-term, but he's only regressed so far this year in that department. Gorman has 40+ home run potential, but his strikeout issues make it hard to believe he can do that as a middle-of-the-order bat.

This is not only a question for the club this year, but it will also be an area of concern for 2026 and beyond, unless someone steps up this year. There really isn't big power potential waiting in the minor league either, so that may be one of the top items on Chaim Bloom's shopping list moving forward.

With all of that being said, I do think we've seen that this offense can be productive without that consistent power. While the lineup may be inconsistent at times, they have so many guys who can produce when needed, so that kind of lineup depth helps them weather the highs and lows of a season. On-base skills complemented with the high rate of singles and doubles will score runs, but it's not the recipe for top-end success in today's game. Should they go through stretches where they are not collecting bases at a high level, that lack of power will really rear its ugly head.