The Cardinals need to move on from Matthew Liberatore

Lots of Cardinals fans have been divided by the polarizing play of starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore. Other than flashes of brilliance that are few and far between, the Cardinals southpaw has the fans, front office, and coaching staff split. I’m here to help negate a Cardinals civil war with a simple claim: It’s time to let go of Libby. 

In many films, the hero’s teacher, a promised child of a different era, fades with time as a new successor takes their place. 

Think Master Oogway turning into flowers in Kung Fu Panda, or Yoda going ghost-mode in Star Wars. 

Liberatore, the promised child of the John Mozeliak era, refuses to fade away gracefully. And to add insult to injury, he’s yet to have any kind of prolonged success that warrants his prolonged stay. 

There aren’t many questions fans have had for new POBO Chaim Bloom since he helped Mozeliak fade away. Unfortunately, the remnants of past mistakes continue to haunt a Cardinals roster riddled with potential. 

Until those issues are addressed, specifically Liberatore, these won’t be Bloom’s Redbirds; they’ll be some kind of cross-reference to a different standard set by different leadership. 

With all that being said, let’s look at the facts and why the Cardinals should move on from their struggling southpaw. 

Why the Cardinals should move on from Matthew Liberatore

Options: For the first time in a long time, St. Louis has arms on the horizon. And by horizon, we aren’t talking five years. It could be as soon as next season that prospects such as Jurrangelo Cijntje, Liam Doyle, and Quinn Mathews are impacting the big club. Due to all this depth, Libby is as expendable as ever. Here’s something not many Cardinals fans are thinking about: the 40-man roster. Do you know why St. Louis has struggled so profusely to funnel talent upwards this season, especially regarding its struggling bullpen? Because they have multiple spots on their 40-man roster being hoarded by players running a filibuster in the face of success. Liberatore is one of said players. Until the Cardinals decide whom to move on from, players in the minors will continue to knock on a door left unanswered. 

Commitment: One common misconception by Cardinals fans is that Liberatore will go elsewhere and find success. Boy, wouldn’t that be "egg on Bloom’s face!" I’m here to inform you, it would NOT be. Liberatore has been a Cardinal since 2022. In that span, he’s thrown 436.2 innings. In those innings, you know how much bWAR he’s accrued? The same as you. 0.0 bWAR. Additionally, he’s never held an ERA+ north of the 100 mark, meaning every season he’s been below average. This isn’t the kind of sample size you look back on and kick yourself over. This IS NOT Randy Arozarena, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, or any other Cardinal prospect that was dealt too soon. St. Louis has put more effort into Liberatore than Christopher Nolan did into his brilliant new picture The Odyssey. There are no regrets here. If the Cardinals hurler were to find a new home and success in tandem, so be it. 

Expected Numbers: Do you like data? Do you like when numbers tell you what to think? Regardless of your answer, here’s what they say. Liberatore’s xERA of 5.16 illustrates that this is no fluke; he simply isn’t MLB-caliber right now. What does he specifically struggle with? Well, he doesn’t keep hitters on the ground, surrenders a ton of hard contact, including lots of home runs, is below average in strikeouts and walks, and doesn’t throw particularly hard. What exactly instills confidence from any Liberatore stan out there? What do you see that I or anyone else who agrees with this piece is missing? With a pitching run value of -19, there is almost no counterargument at this point. Liberatore continues to lower expectations for himself and for the rest of the team. 

The Bullpen Argument: "But what about moving him to the bullpen! He was much better there!" In response to this, allow me to rest my case. What arm in MLB compares to this situation? Is there another who struggled to the same degree, with the same putrid analytics behind the curtain, that a team continued to buy into? The one example that comes to mind is the Angels’ Reid Detmers. However, the Halos lefty, who has finally broken out in 2026, always had the sabermetrics on his side. He’s closer to a Lars Nootbaar on the mound than a Liberatore. I can’t wrap my head around a team justifying so much playing time for a player based on prospect pedigree from over five years ago, and team control. Liberatore’s lifetime ERA in the bullpen of 3.89 is respectable, but still not mind-blowing. The Red Sox stumbled upon a similar situation this season with starter Brayan Bello, who is also on a contract extension. He started this year off so poorly that he was sent down, then moved to the pen. When he pitches out of the bullpen, he’s got an ERA that resembles Mason Miller and the strikeout stuff to boot. If Liberatore were to make that kind of a jump in production with a change in role, things would be different. Unfortunately, it seems like he simply goes from bad to mediocre. Doesn’t it excite you to imagine giving those innings to someone else? A breath of fresh air? Maybe it doesn’t work out. But hey, then you’d just be in the same situation as right now. 

Eye Test: In Liberatore’s latest contest against the rival Cubs, velocity was mediocre, command was inconsistent, and he felt hittable to the entirety of a solid Chi-Town lineup. Granted, the Cubs hit lefties well, and it was a tough matchup. Although in the postgame, the Cardinal starter was adamant that it was all on him for not getting ahead of hitters, and less about the Cubs’ persistent success against his archetype. Liberatore can’t locate his curveball, has a flat fastball, and rarely gets ahead in counts. The problem is there is no one pitch he has that functions as a savior, and he lacks the pitchability to strengthen his own arsenal by working ahead. Feel for the game is still important, and judging by where certain pitches end up, Libby’s fingers are numb. Occasionally, when he works ahead and has his slider and/or curveball working, strikeouts can come in bunches. The unfortunate reality is that between those flashes in the pan, the Cardinals get minimal innings, lackluster production, and an unreliable arm in the rotation. You don’t need a prescription to see that the approach right now isn’t working. 

Since arriving in St. Louis, Liberatore got off on the wrong foot. Being involved in such a catastrophic trade only heightens expectations, and when you fail to meet them, you become a martyr for fans, pundits, and executives alike. 

Maybe Libby never got a fair chance. Did all the noise get too loud and scare off his command and velocity? In certain moments, the real Liberatore bleeds through. Like a picturesque moment, it leaves you smiling under your breath, and remembering when he brought promises of ace upside and sky-high curveballs that’d free-fall into the zone. 

There are no harsh feelings when it comes to Libby’s ineffectiveness in The Lou, only fact. And the fact is, with change comes loss. The loss of Liberatore will be a stain on the organization for a long time to come. The saddest thing is, it seems they’ve lost him before he’s even left. 

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