3 realistic mock trades for Cardinals' Dustin May

The St. Louis Cardinals’ easiest and most predictable trade asset is veteran starter Dustin May. 

May, 28, has finally broken through his injury-plagued ways for a solid season in The Lou. Thus far, he’s accumulated 0.5 bWAR and a 4.59 ERA. 

His success comes in peaks and valleys. When May is good, he shuts down the best lineups in baseball. When he’s bad? Baseballs impersonate airplanes. 

Underlying numbers suggest that May has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.96 xERA and well-kept barrel percentage both hint toward positive regression. 

Luckily for the Redbirds, that kind of data plays a major role in negotiations nowadays. Front offices across baseball preach Bill James and adhere to sabermetrics more often than not. That being said, May has value, and below are three realistic trades that could take place. 

Trade one: Chicago Cubs

Hold your breath, Cardinals’ fans. I know this is scary territory. The Cubs? Anyone but the Cubs! Am I right? Well, no. I’m not. 

Chicago has been MLB’s most desperate organization for pitching all season–and they aren’t hiding it. 

They’ve already traded away a top-30 prospect for Mets’ David Peterson, who has a 5.97 ERA this season. And after acquiring Peterson, they doubled down on the middling-starter fad and added Aaron Civale. 

May doesn’t have the kind of stat sheet that nets legitimate prospect capital–unless the team you’re trading with has no way to negotiate. 

What are the Cubs gonna say? ‘We don’t value Dustin May.’ They already valued Peterson! Granted, he was an All-Star last season, and it’s a buy-low move. However, the North Side is in win-now mode. They don't just need innings: they need production.

Here’s what a realistic trade could look like:
Cubs Receive: Dustin May (SP)
Cardinals Receive: Jostin Florentino (CHC #16, RHP), Mason McGwire (CHC #19, RHP)

The Cubs get another arm to help bolster a rotation that resembles the ‘bring out yer dead!’ scene in Monty Python’s The Holy Grail, and the Cardinals get more arms for the future. 

It’s worth noting that this works because the Cubs don’t have indefinite rotation spots to hand out. Their horses will be back. May fits the exact mold of pitcher they need; a rental on the cheaper side. But because other teams know how desperate they already are, the Cards might be able to squeeze out more value than you’d expect. 

Trade two: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are the opposite of the Cubs. With one of MLB’s best rotations that’s almost entirely intact, they simply need innings down the stretch. May might not be their first choice due to his injury history, but if other options fall through, a trade becomes very feasible. 

As it stands, Zack Wheeler leads the Phils’ starting rotation, which Fangraphs has listed as a four-man unit. May would provide another body down the stretch to throw every fifth day. Unlike the Cubs, the Phillies aren’t limping; they’re sprinting. Rather than being a crutch, May is grabbing the baton in the City of Brotherly Love, and helping to carry it to October. 

Here’s what a realistic trade could look like: 
Phillies Receive: Dustin May (SP)
Cardinals Receive: Cody Bowker (PHI #15, RHP)

Bowker has incredible strikeout stuff and is projected to reach MLB by 2028. The Cardinals have been stocking up on big arms, and this would simply further Chaim Bloom’s new tactic. 

St. Louis would likely get less from the Phillies because they won’t be as entranced by May as the Cubs would be. As previously stated, he’s a stopgap choice and won’t be a likely candidate for playoff innings. 

Trade three: Houston Astros

Trust me. I agree with you. Why would the Astros buy? They’re 52-55, and have been a non-story all season. 

Well, somewhere between the return of shortstop Jeremy Peña and the MVP-antics of Yordan Alvarez, general manager Dana Brown convinced himself they can overcome the current two-game deficit in the AL West. 

The Astros’ biggest vice all year has been their starting rotation. Whether it’s Tatsuya Imai’s pitiful season or the misfortunes of Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco, the Stros are wailing for pitching aid. 

May is cheap enough that Houston would be able to add his services, as they have one of MLB’s least enticing farm systems. 

Here’s what a realistic trade could look like: 
Astros Receive: Dustin May (SP)
Cardinals Receive: Ethan Frey (HOU #7, OF), Max Holy (HOU #20, SS)

In this deal, the Cardinals would add some position player depth up the middle. 

Frey has had nothing but success in his minor league career, and Holy is a buy-low addition who could mature into a nice depth piece up the middle. 

The Astros will have to fork over more than almost anyone else, regardless of who they trade for. Thus is the life of a middling farm system.

No matter who May plays for after the August 3 deadline, Cardinals fans will look back and smile on his half-season in The Lou. 

It wasn’t perfect; heck, sometimes it wasn’t even pretty, but it was wild, red-headed, and fast. Like his 100 mph sinkers, May’s time in St. Louis passed us all by, and it deserves nothing but a ‘best wishes’ as he heads for a new home. 

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