The Cardinals' biggest perceived strength could end up as their downfall

One of the beautiful aspects of baseball is its unpredictability. Every year, players whom most fans are unfamiliar with break out and others fall flat. For the St. Louis Cardinals, who are embarking on a "youth movement" or "transition" or "retool" or whatever you want to call it, many fans saw their bullpen as a likely strong point that could potentially help the team make an unexpected push to contention in 2025. However, while the offense has been a major surprise for many, the relief corps have not lived up the standards that were expected of them.

The bullpen could be the Cardinals' weakest link in 2025.

The Cardinals bullpen currently ranks 24th in the league in ERA, at 5.54, and it places dead last in strand rate, leaving only 51.2% of runners on base. Ryan Fernandez, the team's Rule 5 pick in 2024, emerged as a linchpin in the bullpen last season, owning a 3.51 ERA in 66.1 innings. It's been a different story thus far in 2025, as Fernandez has walked four batters in four innings and allowed six earned runs while striking out only one hitter. His strand rate sits at a ghastly 20%.

Outside of a few bright spots, the rest of the bullpen hasn't fared much better. Left-hander John King has predictably crashed back to earth after a season that saw his FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, which often signifies that a pitcher benefited from good luck. In an admittedly tiny sample size of two innings in 2025, King has surrendered seven hits and three earned runs.

The longest-tenured Cardinal, closer Ryan Helsley, is 1 for 2 on saves in the season. His most recent appearance, on April 6, was concerning, as he struggled to find the strike zone and allowed hard contact when he did. Helsley walked four batters and allowed two line drives in the ill-fated outing. The Cardinals need Helsley to remain healthy and effective if they plan to flip him at the trade deadline for a bevy of prospects.

One of the few standouts in the arm barn for the Cardinals has been a new face in right-hander Phil Maton. who has six strikeouts and no walks to his name through 4.2 innings. Maton was brought in to replace Andrew Kittredge, who signed with the Baltimore Orioles but will miss several months after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. It was a fortuitous parting for the Cardinals, who may be even further up a creek with a sidelined Kittredge and no veteran presence to replace him.

Riley O'Brien could be the first minor league reliever to get the call should an injury or further ineffectiveness hinder the major league bullpen. O'Brien has tantalized the Cardinals with ferocious stuff, but issues with control have plagued him throughout his brief major league career. Roddery Munoz is another candidate to be promoted. The Cardinals claimed Munoz off of waivers in December 2024, and he has struck out seven batters in four innings in Memphis to this point.

The Cardinals' dependence on their bullpen will become even heavier if they move forward with their plan to utilize a six-man rotation. With a sixth starter pitching on a day where the top starter otherwise would, it's likely that the bullpen will be forced to cover more innings. If the Cardinals can't trust their bullpen to keep the team in the game, they may need to scrap the six-man rotation idea.

Starting pitching was the main issue for the Cardinals in their dismal 2023 campaign. They rectified that concern in 2024 only to see their offense crater. So far in 2025, it's the bullpen that hasn't been up to snuff. If the Cardinals can get all three components clicking in sync, they might be able to compete in the NL Central. But until then, the team will likely languish around the middle of the pack.