The Cardinals' approach has failed to adapt over recent years

Over the last few seasons, Major League Baseball has seen tremendous changes. In 2013, the Baltimore Orioles led all of baseball with 212 home runs. Ten years later in 2023, the Atlanta Braves led baseball with 307 home runs, nearly a 100 home run difference in ten years. In fact, the percentage of runs created by the home run hovers around 40%-45% in today's game as opposed to around 35% in 2010. While the reliance on home runs has been one of baseball’s continuing changes, an increase in stolen bases has been a recent change. With these two factors contributing so much to MLB success in 2025, why is it that the St. Louis Cardinals have failed to adapt to this new way of play?

Starting off with the power numbers, after finishing dead last in team home runs for the 2020 season, the Cardinals have finished 15th, 9th, and 12th in the years 2021-2023. Last season, however, the team ranked 22nd in home runs, and halfway through the year thus far, the Cardinals sit in 21st. Averaging these finishes together, the Cardinals tend to finish in a mediocre 18th place in home runs over the last six seasons. To prove how the home run drives team success, currently in 2025, eight out of the top ten teams in home runs are either in a playoff position or within four games of one. Although the Cardinals' power numbers aren’t great, their contact numbers provide quite an interesting contrast.

Once being known as a team that would string hits together, the Cardinals have upheld this philosophy recently. In the last five seasons, the Cardinals have finished in the top ten in team hits twice, including an eighth place finish in 2024. Currently in 2025, the Cardinals rank 11th in hits, trailing 10th place by just one base hit. Over the last five seasons, the team has averaged an 11th-place finish in hits per season. This unfortunately has not translated into a high run total. In the same sample size of 2021-2025, the Cardinals finished in the top ten in runs just once, their playoff season in 2022. Apart from that, they’ve finished 19th, 21st, 22nd, and 11th so far in 2025. This average puts them in the middle of the pack (15th) in runs per game since 2021. To put these contact numbers in perspective, the Cardinals have more hits this season than the Detroit Tigers, who hold the best record in baseball, but still trail them by five placements in runs per game.

Last but not least is stolen bases. Since Major League Baseball increased the size of the bases prior to the 2023 season, the league has seen an increase in stolen bases once more. This is something the Cardinals have failed to take advantage of, struggling in this category much more than home runs. Since the expanded bases, the Cardinals finished 20th in stolen bases in 2023, 22nd in 2024, and currently sit 22nd in 2025. Not to mention the team has just one player with over five stolen bases, their nine-hole hitter, Victor Scott II, who has snagged 24 bags at the All-Star break. To show the impact stolen bases have on success, as of right now seven out of the top ten teams in stolen bases are either in a playoff spot or within four games of one.

Although the Cardinals' pitching can also shoulder a considerable amount of blame for the team’s struggles over the past few seasons, their lack of speed and power should not be overlooked. How can the team fix this? Two answers. The first is finding their next star player or an established power bat. Like Paul Goldschmidt, who won the MVP in 2022, just having one amazing contributor can turn an entire offense around. Whether or not the Cardinals make a move for a star player this offseason, the team should certainly look into power hitting options in order to score more runs. Currently ranking in a tie for second place in fielding percentage (.990), the Cardinals should be willing to take some defense out of their lineup if it means inserting a powerful bat. Finally comes a change in approach on the basepaths. While the Cardinals may not be the fastest team in the league, there are a few players more than capable of stealing bases. The aforementioned Victor Scott II is one, but players like Masyn Winn (81st percentile speed) and Thomas Saggese (84th percentile speed) also come to mind. A more aggressive approach on the basepaths could see the Cardinals' offense threaten more with runners in scoring position and cause havoc on opposing pitchers. With baseball constantly changing, the Cardinals need to modify their approach in order to excel in more offensive categories.