The baseball world is sleeping on the idea of rewarding Jordan Walker for his resurgent season

As the baseball season winds down, award speculation ramps up. MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and Rookie of the Year tend to receive the most fan buzz and media attention, but an overshadowed award often ends up as one of the most interesting and inspiring prizes that Major League Baseball hands out. Although he hasn't received much love from odds sites, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker deserves serious consideration for the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award.

This award, handed out to one player in each league, is given to someone who is judged to have "reemerged on the baseball field during a given season." Walker, as Cardinals fans know, has stormed onto the scene in 2026 after floundering in 2024 and 2025, yet according to Oddspedia, Walker is not among the five players with the highest likelihood to receive the award.

The site names Miami Marlins starting pitcher (and former Cardinal) Sandy Alcantara as the favorite to win NL Comeback Player of the Year. Tommy John surgery wiped out Alcantara's 2024 season, and the effects of it lingered into 2025, where he sputtered to a 5.36 ERA. This year has been a different story, as a fully healthy Alcantara leads the majors in games started and innings pitched, and he has a 3.78 ERA.

The player with the second-highest odds is Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, who hit just .249 with a .678 OPS in 2025. In 2026, he's back to his 2022 Rookie of the Year form, hitting .291 with an .808 OPS. In third place is Oddspedia's "sleeper pick" for the award, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz.

Walker's omission from this list appears to be a glaring one. In terms of year-over-year improvement, Walker is the most improved player in slugging percentage, with a .182 increase; the most improved in isolated power, with a .116 increase; and the second most improved in batting average, behind Cruz, with a .066 increase. Walker also has the largest jump in OPS+ among him, Cruz and Harris, with a whopping 65-point increase for Walker compared with 43 for Cruz and 33 for Harris.

Since Walker is a hitter and Alcantara is a pitcher, it's much more difficult to compare them, but Alcantara's jump in ERA+ (the pitching equivalent of OPS+) is just 25 points. So why is Walker getting snubbed in the odds?

One key facet of the award could be keeping Walker from earning his stripes

Recall the definition of the Comeback Player of the Year Award: someone who has reemerged on the baseball field during a given season. That "re-" prefix is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It's likely that in the view of those who are deciding the odds, Walker never proved himself to be established enough in the first place for his current production to be labeled a "comeback."

There remains plenty of room to quibble on that front, though. Walker had an above-average rookie season, hitting .276 with a .787 OPS and a 113 OPS+, before becoming one of the worst hitters in the major leagues over the next two years. Still, those who didn't know Walker from his prospect days were probably only aware of him in passing and didn't receive full exposure to his breakout season until he claimed victory in the exhilarating 2026 Home Run Derby.

Walker also carries the (mis?)fortune of not falling victim to injuries or other medical problems that could put him in more serious talks for the award. Several winners are those who came back from Tommy John surgery, but others emerged from less common medical matters in baseball. Trey Mancini overcame colon cancer to win the award, and Carlos Carrasco and Liam Hendriks received the award after returning from leukemia and lymphoma diagnoses, respectively.

Walker hasn't battled anything as serious as life-threatening medical conditions or even had any major surgeries in his brief career, but he has discussed how he grappled with his mental health while the Cardinals constantly tinkered with his swing amid his struggles. However, the baseball writers who choose the Comeback Player of the Year might not see that as enough of an obstacle for Walker to earn their vote.

Nobody in baseball has approached Walker's turnaround this season, and ostensibly, that's what the Comeback Player of the Year Award should reflect. But because Walker wasn't a big name prior to 2026 and didn't face a more daunting physical issue like that of many previous winners, he may not receive the credit and consideration that he deserves.

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