St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS projections take a dip from 2024

Each year, Dan Szymborski and his computer spit out projections for every single player and team in Major League Baseball. For weeks, followers of Szymorski on Twitter/X have been salivating to see their team's projections be posted. Fans of the St. Louis Cardinals had to wait until the penultimate release to see their favorite players be listed.

I broke down last year's projections, and you can give that piece a read -- along with a hindsight reflection -- here.

ZiPS projections for the Cardinals this year have taken a dip from previous years. For a team that was once a lock for 85-95 wins, the tide has changed. Now, the Cardinals appear to be a club stuck in the .500 level until some of their homegrown players reach higher levels. That could be just the case for players like Masyn Winn, Lars Nootbaar, Michael McGreevy, and Thomas Saggese.

The Cardinals' player with the greatest fWAR projection for 2025 is Sonny Gray at 3.9 fWAR. ZiPS sees a return to stardom for the team's resident (and national) ace in 2025 following an uptick in home run totals in 2024. While we can't expect Gray to regress to allowing only eight home runs as he did in 2023, we can definitely expect an improvement from his 21 home runs allowed last year. Expect him to sit in the 12-15 home runs allowed range, particularly given Busch Stadium's tendency to absorb fly balls.

Behind Sonny Gray, we see Nolan Arenado with an fWAR projection of 2.9. This is a very slight decrease from his 3.1-fWAR 2024 season, a year in which his slugging plummeted but his average rose. Thanks to a mild return to power and a more stable defensive profile for the bulk of 2025, Arenado is able to be a solid third baseman still next year. Given the recent news surrounding Ryan Pressly, Alex Bregman, and the Houston Astros, there's a chance that Arenado would be traded and subsequently dethroned as the position player WAR leader.

Should Arenado be traded, Masyn Winn would ascend to be the leader of the position player side of things. ZiPS projects Winn to slash .253/.307/.392 next year with 14 home runs and 13 stolen bases. I've been adamant all offseason that Winn has the potential to be at least a 15-15 guy with a chance to go 20-20 next year.

Lars Nootbaar is projected to experience more health in 2025 with a plate appearance total of 475. The last time he surpassed that mark as 2023, a year where he was a three-WAR player. ZiPS gives him 2.3 WAR and a 116 OPS+ next year.

Perhaps the most surprising (disappointing?) part of the ZiPS projections would be in right field with Jordan Walker. He's going to see 600 or so plate appearances if he's healthy, but he's projected for a measly 0.5 fWAR next year. When I spoke with Szymborski about these projections, he confirmed that Walker's low total is a result of unproven offensive success combined with poor defensive metrics. ZiPS has him pegged for a 99 OPS+ with 19 home runs. Even his 80th percentile projection gives him just 1.9 WAR and a 118 OPS+.

The bullpen is headed by Ryan Helsley, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, and JoJo Romero, and the relief corps as a whole is projected for 2.9 fWAR. In his write-up, Dan says that the bullpen teeters towards the "Ryan Helsley and some other guys" level. Hels is expected to hit 67 innings next year with a 2.77 ERA and 75 strikeouts. His K rate has dropped these last two years, and that trend is expected to at least stay the same or even drop slightly once again.

Other surprising aspects of the ZiPS projections would be which players are slated to see the most time at key positions next year. ZiPS projects Michael McGreevy to log the most innings of any pitcher on the staff next year with 153.3 innings. This is quite surprising to me, as Miles Mikolas and Sonny Gray have consistently pitched more than their innings projections of 150 and 140, respectively.

Quinn Mathews is also given a generous helping of appearances with 25 starts next year while Andre Pallante is projected to float between the bullpen and the rotation, perhaps some leftovers from his days as a swingman in the organization.

ZiPS sees several ready-to-go pitching prospects for the Cardinals who could log serious innings next year even beyond McGreevy and Mathews. Drew Rom is given 17 starts and 84 innings, Tink Hence is projected for nearly 100 innings and 26 starts, and Gordon Graceffo is listed for 124 innings and 24 starts. Obviously, these can't and won't all happen, but it's promising to see so many ready arms waiting in the wings.

ZiPS projects Victor Scott to see more reps in center, Thomas Saggese to lead the Saggese/Brendan Donovan/Nolan Gorman triumvirate at second base, and Ivan Herrera to be the primary catcher. Each of these plate appearance splits are mildly contradictory to what the front office and management have been stating this offseason.

John Mozeliak stated toward the beginning of the offseason that his preferred outfield alignment is Nootbaar/Siani/Walker. If Nolan Arenado isn't traded, Brendan Donovan will be the primary second baseman with plenty of time logged at other areas on the field, especially left field.

If Oliver Marmol's usage of Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera last year is an indication of things to come, fans should expect Pages to see 60% or more of the innings behind the plate with Herrera getting some time in at designated hitter.

Dan put it best at the end of his article when he said "Even throwing in the towel would be more interesting, and probably more helpful than cosplaying as the heat death of the universe." The Cardinals have been stagnant all offseason, and that has done nothing to either boost or lower their 2025 outlook.