St. Louis Cardinals' ZiPS projections are out, and they are pretty favorable

Batters

There are a few takeaways that I have right away when looking at these predictions for the batters: first, the Cardinals will be a high-floor, middle-ceiling team next year. Nolan Arenado is projected to be the team's best player at 3.8 WAR; that's a significant drop from last year's projection of 5.8 WAR, but it's better than how he ended last year. The Cardinals don't have a single position projected for under 2.1 WAR. That makes for a team that won't get in its own way.

Second, ZiPS sees Masyn Winn getting significant time at shortstop and improving offensively with a projected 2.7-WAR season at the position, possibly bolstered by Tommy Edman seeing time there as well. Tommy Edman figures to be second on the team in WAR with 3.2 in center field with Dylan Carlson supplying some of that WAR total. Paul Goldschmidt is aging like a fine wine with a projected 3.1-WAR season as a thirty-six-year-old.

Lars Nootbaar is projected to continue to decline a bit, but he is still a top-five player on the team. Nolan Gorman is projected to be the team's starting second baseman while Brendan Donovan gets the majority of the designated hitter reps. Donovan will likely play multiple positions next year to spell the mainstays when he isn't the DH.

The Cardinals' position players offer quite a bit of flexibility. Tommy Edman can play three positions handily, Brendan Donovan is listed at two positions but can also play outfield, Alec Burleson is listed in the outfield and DH, but he has played first base, and Lars Nootbaar will likely see time at all three outfield spots. Richie Palacios, last season's breakout player, has played all three outfield positions and second base.

Pitchers

The Cardinals appear to have their ace. Sonny Gray's projection for a 3.6-WAR season is significant. Even though he finished second in the American League Cy Young last year, fans still don't see him as an ace; Gray, however, stands with or surpasses other "aces" across the league like George Kirby (3.9 WAR), Kodai Senga (3.9 WAR), Logan Gilbert (3.8 WAR), Shane Bieber (3.8 WAR), Joe Musgrove (3.5 WAR), and Tarik Skubal (3.4 WAR), and even Jesus Luzardo (3.1 WAR).

Behind Sonny Gray rests a collection of starting pitchers hovering between 1.5 and 2.1 WAR. Miles Mikolas will assume the role as the team's #2 starter followed by Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and lastly Steven Matz. Matz is projected for only 1.5 WAR in approximately 104 innings. I spoke in depth about Matz when looking at Steamer projections. If he plays a full season (150+ innings), Matz is a very solid #2 or #3 starting pitcher.

One noteworthy exemption from the lineup is Matthew Liberatore; I most recently stated that he may not even make the roster out of Spring Training, and while ZiPS doesn't have him listed, Dan Szymborski stated on Twitter that he isn't on the graphic due to a projection for fewer than 30 innings pitched. I think Libby needs to hone his skills at AAA and be ready to start in St. Louis should an injury arise.

Ryan Helsley will spearhead the bullpen with a projection of 0.8 WAR, comparable to other All-Star closers across the league. Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, and Andre Pallante round out the remaining "top-tier" bullpen pitchers for the Cardinals. This tier is actually quite strong.

ZiPS isn't as bullish on the team's bullpen next year as it was in 2023. The second tier of pitchers (John King, Nick Robertson, and Ryan Fernandez) don't have as high of a ceiling as last year's players such as Chris Stratton, Genesis Cabrera, and Andre Pallante had. The depth is there, especially if players like Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo, or Michael McGreevy make an appearance, but the high-end talent is lacking out of the 'pen.