So you're telling me there's a chance? Taking a look at Cardinals' Draft Lottery odds

Growing up in the Chicagoland area, any time a draft lottery is mentioned, it immediately brings memories of the 2008 draft when the Chicago Bulls, despite having a 1.7% chance at the top pick, saw their name pulled first and used that pick on franchise defining player in Derrick Rose. Now in its third year, the MLB Draft Lottery does not hold the same fanfare across different leagues, but there is still the potential for teams to back their way into a future star.

Last season, the St. Louis Cardinals had an 8.3% chance for the top overall pick thanks to their abysmal season. Those odds were good for 5th highest among qualified teams but the Cardinals ultimately fell to the #7 spot. Despite the disappointment of dropping a couple of spots in the draft order, the Cardinals drafted JJ Wetherholt, who many viewed as one of the top offensive talents in the draft and now slots in as the team's #1 prospect and MLB.com's #18 prospect across the league.

What are the St. Louis Cardinals draft lottery odds?

Looking ahead to this year's lottery draft, which takes place on Tuesday, the Cardinals are slotted with a 0.8% chance for the top pick. While not ideal, at least it's not a zero like the lowly White Sox and A's, each of whom are ineligible for a pick inside the top-10 slots.

As Derrick Goold points out, the Cardinals' 8.9% chance at a top 6 pick is a near duplicate of last year's top pick odds. As Lloyd Christmas says, 1:1,000,000 odds (in this case ~1:100) still mean there's a chance. With the MLB draft producing prospects rather than Major League talent, the typical thought when picking high in the draft is to take the best player available at that spot. Since Goold stops the odds projection at the sixth spot in the draft, here's a quick look at which amateur talents are ranked within those spots.

1. Ethan Holliday (SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK))

The younger brother of 2022 top overall pick Jackson Holliday and son of former Cardinal great Matt Holliday, Ethan is actually thought to be an even better prospect than Jackson. The 6'4 senior more closely resembles the build and power potential of his father while hitting from the left side. The thought around the league is that Ethan can play shortstop early in his career before his size limitations may force him to third base.

2. Jace LaViolette (OF, Texas A&M)

LaViolette is one of the biggest prospects in the 2025 draft class, and that does not just mean prospect status. The lefty outfielder measures in at a hulking 6'6" and 230 pounds with the power potential to match, receiving 65-grade power on the 20-80 prospect scale. He's not all power though, as he has the ability to become a true 5-tool player with well-above-average measurables for his speed and fielding abilities.

3. Jamie Arnold (LHP, Florida State)

The first pitcher to crack the list worked his way into top pick potential with a phenomenal 2024 season that saw him ranked among the NCAA's best arms and draw comparisons to NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale. Arnold, a 6'1 lefty, showed high-level strikeout ability to go along with stellar command. His 60-grade fastball can touch 97mph and mixes well with his sweeping slider. Despite not needing to use his changeup often, Arnold's tertiary offering is still ranked as an above-average pitch.

4. Tyler Bremner (RHP, UC Santa Barbara)

The next pitcher to crack the top-6 list is Bremner, whose body of work shows outstanding results as both a starter and reliever at the college ranks. Injuries to the Gauchos' staff put Bremner fully into the rotation in 2024, where his power fastball averaged 95mph with the ability to hit 98mph with room for more growth. His secondary offering is ranked as one of the best in the class, with MLB.com giving Bremner's changeup a 65-grade with some scouts pushing it into the 70 range that pairs with an above-average power slider that can reach 88mph. If Bremner showed his ability to be a full-time starter during his college career, some scouts think he could have put himself in the #1 pick conversation.

5. Seth Hernandez (RHP, Corona HS (CA))

The last pitcher to crack the list is prep righty Seth Hernandez, whose 6'4 frame paints the picture of an ideal rotation arm. Looking beyond his size, Hernandez also features a four-pitch mix with a firm fastball that is already sitting in the upper 90s despite his lean 190-pound frame. All three of his secondary offerings rank as above-average with the 18-year-old already showing impressive feel for his changeup to pair with his 12-6 curveball and firm slider. Hernandez has a commitment to Vanderbilt, but being ranked in the top-5 draft prospects most likely puts his Commodores future on pause.

6. Kayson Cunningham (SS/Johnson HS (TX))

The final prospect that the Cardinals have a sub-10% chance to grab in the projected top 6 is another prep athlete, despite being one of the smaller-sized players in the draft. Cunningham is a 5'9, lefty-hitting shortstop with a commitment to the Texas Longhorns. He is currently being seen as one of the more polished prep bats in the entire class, notching a 60-grade hit tool. Cunningham's athleticism (55-grade field and 60-grade run tools) have scouts believing he can stick as a shortstop in the pro ranks with the potential to knock double-digit home runs.

This year's draft lottery takes place on December 10th at 4:30 central time in Dallas. Full coverage of the lottery can be seen on MLB Network or streamed on MLB.com. Cardinals fans should be crossing their fingers to receive some Chicago-area draft luck and net themselves another top prospect for a revamped farm system.