What are the Cardinals' chances of landing the top pick in the 2025 MLB Draft?

The St. Louis Cardinals are all but eliminated from playoff contention in 2024, so it's time to look toward the future. Not only should the Cardinals be letting their younger players get more playing time, see Victor Scott II and Luken Baker, but they should also be focusing their attention on the 2025 MLB draft. They got a bit unlucky in the 2024 draft lottery, ending up with the 7th overall pick, but their selection of JJ Wetherholt may have been the steal of the draft.

So, how do the Cardinals' chances stack up for landing the first overall pick in the 2025 draft? The Cleveland Guardians landed the first overall pick in 2024 against all odds (only a 2% chance), so it's definitely possible. As of right now, the Cardinals have the 11th best odds to land the first overall pick, with the 13th worst record in baseball. Due to the regulations of the CBA the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics can't pick outside the top 10 next year, so it gives the Cardinals a higher chance for a better pick.

What are the Cardinals' chances of landing the number one overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft?

If the season ended today, the St. Louis Cardinals would have a 1.22% chance to pick first overall. That's not great odds and a bit less than the Guardians had this season, but it's more than double the Cardinals' chances of making the playoffs this year according to FanGraphs (0.5%). If they drop in the standings even further, their chances of picking higher in the draft will increase as well. I'm not advocating for them to tank for the sake of the draft, but playing young talent and prioritizing the future may end up benefiting the team in more ways than one.

Landing the first overall pick may be difficult for the Cardinals, but they're certainly well-positioned to add another top prospect to the system, so a disappointing season may have a silver lining.