Will JJ Wetherholt succeed with the Cardinals or will he be another Dylan Carlson?

A look at how the minor leaguers are doing

2024 MLB Draft Presented by Nike
2024 MLB Draft Presented by Nike | Richard Rodriguez/GettyImages

Josh Jacobs just wrote about all the accolades the Cardinals are receiving for their top draft pick this year, JJ Wetherholt. MLB.com already has him ranked as the 19th-best prospect in all of baseball.

Ironically he is going to a Cardinals team with the 19th-ranked minor league system.

What will the Cardinals do with a player who was considered a possible number-one draft pick at one point? Can they make him better? To find out the answer to that question, we need to know how their other minor leaguers are doing. FanGraphs has a very comprehensive ranking of minor-league prospects. I was able to export their top 1200 for 2023 and 2024. Both lists were the updated lists that were published after the trade deadline each year. I am using FanGraphs instead of MLB because most of the Cardinals' prospects are way outside the MLB top 100.

The top prospects from last year compared to where they rank this year.

2023 RANK

2024 RANK

Tink Hence

33

52

Masyn Winn

37

N/A

Tekoah Roby

51

101

Gordon Graceffo

77

624

Ivan Herrera

126

N/A

Michael McGreevy

158

654

Cooper Hjerpe

185

164

Sem Robberse

215

260

Chase Davis

245

314

Thomas Saggese

281

232

The results are mixed. Two players, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera were promoted. Cooper Hjerpe and Thomas Saggese had slight improvements. The other six had fairly significant declines.

What have the Cardinals done with the players we traded for at the deadline last year?

TRADED AWAY

TRADED FOR

2023

2024

Genesis Cabrera

Sammy Hernandez

951

1200+

Jordan Hicks

Adam Kloffenstein

465

1200+

Sem Robbersee

215

260

Jordan Montgomery

John King

MLB

MLB

Chris Stratton

Thomas Saggesse

281

232

Tekoah Roby

51

101

Paul DeJong

Matt Svanson

N/A

N/A

JAck Flaherty

Cesar Prieto

520

413

Drew Rom

848

1200+

Zach Showalter

N/A

N/A

Three players who came to the Cardinal aren’t even ranked inside the top 1200 now. Only two players of the nine minor leaguers have a better ranking than last year.

Top five pitchers from last year’s list

2023

2024

Tink Hence

33

52

Tekoah Roby

51

101

Gordon Graceffo

77

624

Michael McGreevy

158

654

Cooper Hjerpe

185

164

Graceffo and McGreevy, two pitchers that not too long ago were being talked about as if they would be big parts of the pitching staff, have a long way to go. Even Hence and Roby have taken steps backward. Hjerpe did take a step up but only at a 10% improvement.

The Cardinals' top five position player prospects from last year, not named Winn or Herrera.

2023

2024

Chase Davis

245

314

Thomas Saggese

281

232

Leonardo Bernal

310

191

Johnathan Mejia

395

1200+

Cesar Prieto

520

413

The hitters are fairing a bit better. Only one player has fallen off the list. The other hitters have moved up and down but not by much. It does appear that the Cardinals somehow can develop catchers.

It appears there are a couple of issues. One explains why Matthew Liberatore was moved into the starting rotation so many times. It’s hard to bring up a pitcher if they are moving down in the rankings.

The other is if you make a trade with another team and those players aren’t getting better but are falling at a quick pace, some even falling completely out of the ranking, then are we having a coaching problem?

The Cardinals' first-round draft pick last year has slipped in the rankings to 314. The 2022 first-round pick has moved up 21 spots to 164. At that rate, he will be inside the top 100 sometime around 2030. I hope Wetherholt makes better progress.

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