Why the Cardinals were right to pass on Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow may soon be headed to the Dodgers, much to the dismay of many Cardinals fans. However, it may not be such a bad thing that the Cardinals passed on him.

Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

St. Louis Cardinals' trade target Tyler Glasnow is heading to the Dodgers along with outfielder Manuel Margot. The Rays would be getting right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca in exchange.

Ken Rosenthal was the first to report the news.

This news is likely going to be very upsetting for certain Cardinals fans who were hoping that the team might approach the Rays with an offer.

We've discussed Glasnow on the site multiple times and how he might fit into the Cardinals' plans. I for one, am in the minority of fans who believe that making a deal for Glasnow would be a mistake.
In this piece, I will once again explain why I believe the Cardinals are right to pass on the right-hander despite his upside.

Why the Cardinals are right to pass on Glasnow

Before I start, I must make clear that I do believe Glasnow would have helped the team out. But he's not what the Cardinals need.

Yes, he has a ton of upside and swing-and-miss capability. That makes him an ideal target in many ways. So why are the Cardinals right to pass on him you ask?

I'll reiterate what I said in a previous piece about why the Cardinals should stay away from Glasnow. While he does possess a ton of upside, I think the cons outweigh the pros.

Glasnow has spent a considerable amount of time on the injured list over the past several years. This year, he was limited to 21 starts and 120 innings pitched. To make matters worse, those were both career highs.

For somebody who is already 30, that is a major concern. Glasnow also doesn't fit the mold of an ace, at least not in my eyes. He posted a 3.53 ERA, which is pretty good, but it's not ace-level material by any means.

Secondly, Glasnow had only one year of team control left, and the Dodgers just signed him to a five-year, $110 million extension. While I believe the Cardinals need to be bold and part with some key pieces in order to land a top-level starter, I don't think it's worth it for somebody like Glasnow. The Rays would almost certainly have wanted somebody like Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, or Brendan Donovan. Giving one of those guys up for just one year of an injury-prone pitcher is not worth the risk.

Finally, we must consider the risk of trading with the Rays and revisit the most recent trade the Cardinals made with Tampa Bay. We're now three years removed from the Randy Arozarena trade, and the Cardinals are still feeling the effects.

Arozarena has blossomed into an MVP-caliber player and is even a postseason hero for the Rays. Meanwhile, Matthew Liberatore has yet to become the ace he was expected to be. He's shown flashes of brilliance but has mostly disappointed.

We also must consider other teams who have made trades with the Rays. One that sticks out is a trade that actually included Glasnow himself.

Back in 2018, the Rays were buying and selling at the trade deadline. The Pirates were going for it and made a deal for Chris Archer. They sent Austin Meadows and Glasnow back to the Rays in that deal.

While still injury-prone, Glasnow became a reliable starter for the Rays, while Meadows turned into an All-Star. Archer never gave the Pirates exactly what they were looking for. Four years later, the cycle repeated itself when Meadows was traded to the Tigers and the Rays landed Isaac Paredes.

There are obviously several reasons why the Cardinals were right to avoid Glasnow. At the end of the day, if they're going to trade for a starter, it needs to be somebody like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert, who can handle a heavy workload and stay healthy.

manual