Who should stay and who should be removed from the Cardinals' rotation after deadline

The Cardinals' rotation has been a bright spot this season. That's especially encouraging after the way the unit struggled last year. Adam Wainwright fell apart, Miles Mikolas regressed significantly, and young starters proved they weren't ready to step up. Over the offseason, the front office did little to assuage concerned fans. While Sonny Gray represented a massive upgrade, many harbored doubts about the two additional acquisitions: Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

Fast forward several months, and the Cardinals have a winning record. Their offense, as many have noted, has held the pitching staff back. Gray has pitched like an All-Star. Mikolas has rebounded after a tough start. Gibson has been one of MLB's most pleasant surprises. Even Lynn has pitched serviceably. In place of the injured Steven Matz, Andre Pallante has performed well. Even Matthew Liberatore has made a few solid spot starts.

The team's strong performance over the past two months has justified investment at the deadline. The Cardinals will upgrade their rotation, though to what degree remains undetermined. When they do, they will have no choice but to relieve at least one current starter from rotational duties. In this article, we'll discuss their options. Who deserves to stay? Who doesn't? What happens to displaced pitchers?

There are a handful of pitchers we won't even need to discuss here. Sonny Gray is the ace, and he won't be relieved of his duties. It's highly unlikely the Cardinals acquire another pitcher of his caliber, though doing so would certainly strengthen the roster for a stretch run. Kyle Gibson has pitched phenomenally. Assuming he doesn't implode over the next few weeks, he will remain comfortably within the rotation. However, names like Andre Pallante, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Matthew Liberatore are worth discussing.

Andre Pallante

Pallante is probably the most obvious candidate for removal. He wasn't part of the Opening Day rotation. Instead, Pallante was part of the Opening Day bullpen. That went terribly. Pallante appeared in just nine games, pitching to a 6.30 ERA. Opponents crushed him, hitting to an OPS of .820. On April 20th, Pallante pitched the final three innings of a blowout loss to Milwaukee and was promptly demoted to AAA Memphis. However, a month later, Pallante was promoted, this time as a starter. On May 29th, Pallante twirled six innings of shutout ball against the Cincinnati Reds, leading the Cardinals to a 5-3 victory.

Since then, Pallante has pitched well. In eight starts, he owns an ERA of 3.70. Pallante has pitched into the seventh in each of his last two starts. Only once did he not at least give the team a chance to win. The Cardinals are 5-3 in his starts. He has, by any measure, been a productive member of this rotation, and it's difficult to envision a future without Pallante. It's also worth mentioning that Pallante probably carries more value as a starter at this point. His stuff generates ground balls and soft contact. Stretched out over five or six innings, he's capable of pitching well. However, his lack of strikeout stuff makes it difficult to rattle off shutdown innings. He's also shown an ability to eat innings, something the Cardinals have benefitted from. He's pitched into the sixth inning in five starts.

As well as Pallante has pitched, it's still possible that he's the odd man out. He'd be the easiest to demote from a logistical standpoint. Pallante would either move to the bullpen or return to Memphis. The Cardinals have already optioned him this year, meaning they'd be likely to do so again. It's possible that Pallante is removed in favor of Steven Matz as well, though his return date is still unknown at the moment.

Verdict: Likely to lose his spot

Lance Lynn

Lynn is the likeliest of the Opening Day starters to be removed from the rotation. Things were going okay before his implosion on July 6th. Across six starts in June, Lynn pitched to a 3.86 ERA and kept the Cards in each of those games, leading the team to a 5-1 record. But, it's worth mentioning that Lynn wasn't giving the Cardinals what they needed most: innings. He covered a measly 30.1 innings in June, averaging just over five per start. In 3 of those games, he failed to pitch through the fifth. Lynn's inefficiency has contributed to the stress placed on the Cardinals' bullpen.

Then came July 6th. Lynn surrendered four runs in the first, five in the second, and two more in the third before being lifted for Matthew Liberatore. By the time it was over, Lynn had given up 11 runs in just 2.2 innings. None of his stuff was working, and the game against the Nationals was over before it really began. Lynn's ERA jumped from a respectable 3.59 to 4.48. He also allowed three home runs, a low point for him on the season. Now, there's real doubt about his future with the Cardinals.

It may surprise many, but Lynn has struggled to eat innings all year. In 18 starts, he has pitched six or more innings just five times. The Cardinals need more from him. Unfortunately, it's difficult to project more. Lynn walks a lot of hitters, strikes a lot of hitters out, and frequently finds himself in deep counts. He doesn't get the quick outs that guys like Mikolas and Gibson rack up. But, his strikeout stuff does allow him to escape jams more often.

Regardless, the results dictate that Lynn is likelier to leave than Mikolas or Gibson. He may carry some value as a reliever. Again, he records more strikeouts than Mikolas and Gibson. But, he just doesn't feel like a reliever. He's 37 years old, he doesn't throw a slider, and he hasn't really pitched in relief since 2011.

Perhaps Lynn carries some trade value. Before his implosion, his season numbers actually looked pretty good. Even now, a 4.48 ERA isn't awful. There may be some team willing to take a look at Lynn, especially if they're dealing with injuries of their own. He won't bring back any notable prospects, but maybe the Cardinals could shed some of his salary. If the Cardinals can't find a taker, it's possible that they just DFA him, though they'll probably be fairly resistant to that option. The Cardinals never like wasting value. Lynn is probably safe if they just go after one pitcher, but a second starter would jeopardize his role.

Verdict: Probably safe... for now

Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas has had a strange season. The team is 9-10 when he pitches, but in five of those losses, Mikolas has recorded a quality start. He gets basically zero run support at times. His best outing of the year came in Pittsburgh when he carried a no-hitter into the seventh. He surrendered a hit, got out of the inning, and watched the bullpen lose the game. The Miles Mikolas experience is just like that sometimes. This year, it's been a mixed bag. The highs have been high, but the lows have been really, really low. To be fair, it's been that way throughout his entire Cardinals career.

2024 is perhaps best described as a tale of two different Miles Mikolas-es. You see, over his first eight appearances, Mikolas was nearly unplayable. Many expressed concerns about his future. Fans lampooned the extension he and the club agreed to last spring and wondered how they could possibly escape his terrible performance. Mikolas surrendered an astonishing 30 runs in his first 42 innings of work, good for a 6.43 ERA. He allowed eight homers. His shenanigans were a big part of the Cardinals' early scuffles, as the team went just 2-6 in his starts.

Then, he pitched quite well on Mother's Day (May 12). Mikolas gave the team six strong innings of two-run ball, and they beat Milwaukee for the first time in seven contests. They also ended a seven-game skid and avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of their division rivals. Perhaps Mikolas acted as a sort of catalyst for the team. Since that game, the Cardinals own the NL's best record at 33-20. They thrust themselves into the Wild Card race and are now players in the divisional battle.

Mikolas has been effective over this stretch. In 11 starts, he's averaging six innings per start with a 3.88 ERA. He has recorded 8 quality starts. Aside from a blowup start against Cincinnati, he's been nearly flawless. The team is 7-4 in his starts, but he's given them a legitimate chance to win at least 10 of them. Mikolas has only taken two losses himself over this timeframe. If you remove that blowup start, Mikolas sports a 2.82 ERA since May 12.

So, Miles Mikolas isn't going anywhere. He's been one of the game's most reliable pitchers over the past two months, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals disrupt that. He's done everything they have asked. He has locked down a spot in this rotation.

Verdict: Miles ain't going anywhere