Which St. Louis Cardinals' Players Increased or Decreased their Value?

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At the beginning of the year, expectations were high for the St. Louis Cardinals. While their starting rotation was predicted to be below average, management and fans expected the team's depth to perform well, thus opening the possibility of trading depth pieces for an established starter.

That plan seems to have changed thus far. Team performance aside, many depth pieces haven't quite lived up to their expectations, making it harder to trade those players to upgrade in other areas.

Players such as Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery were on expiring deals; the hope was that they would play well enough to earn a contract extension or become the ace of a staff that needed one badly. Others such as Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, and Dylan Carlson were expected to settle into a starting role and carry it through the season.

Let's take a look at eight players who have either increased or decreased their trade value significantly. Keep in mind that most of the team hasn't done enough to change management's perception of them, or those players were never options to be traded anyway (Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker, etc.).

The Overperformers: Part 1

Jordan Montgomery

Last year, the Cardinals and Yankees made a surprise last-second trade at the deadline. The Yankees acquired an injured Harrison Bader and in turn, sent lefty Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals. Monty quickly settled in with the team, leading a postseason push alongside Jose Quintana, another deadline acquisition.

Montgomery wasn't an ace of a staff, but he was definitely a very reliable pitcher who could eat innings and limit damage. For his career, he has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.218 WHIP, a 3.76 FIP, and a 113 ERA+. Since the Cardinals acquired him, he has a 3.18 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, and a 1.115 WHIP, for an ERA+ of 130. He has been outstanding for the Cardinals, pitching similarly to a staff ace. His numbers on the season are stronger than his career numbers, and that has increased his value.

Paul DeJong

Here's a doozy. Paul DeJong has been a player who occasionally will give hope to fans only to revert to high strikeout rates, hitting into double plays, and whiffing at pitches not even close. For his career, DeJong has a slash line of .233/.306/.431 and an OPS+ of 98. His career strikeout rate is 26.4% to an 8% walk rate. DeJong's defense has always been at the top of the league.

On the season, DeJong's numbers outpace his career stats. He is slashing .240/.317/.460 for an OPS+ of 110. He is striking out at 26%, however. The main difference in DeJong's success this year is his home run percentage (5.4%), which is backed by his hard-hit percentage (40.3%). On the defensive side, DeJong has racked up 6 Outs Above Average thus far for the season. He does very well coming in and moving to his right, but he struggles when moving towards first base.

There are plenty of teams who will take a defense-first shortstop with power potential on a contract that is relatively cheap. His contract also has two club options that can be exercised.

The Overperformers: Part 2

Jordan Hicks

Relievers are volatile in general, but Jordan Hicks has taken volatility to a new level in his career. Once a flame-throwing closer, Hicks dabbled in the rotation back in 2022 but was hampered by injuries. This year, he was able to focus on pitching out of the bullpen and refining his fiery stuff. The most useful stats for Hicks would be his career 9.6 Ks/9 innings, 1.307 WHIP, and a .202 batting average against. He limits hard hits and induces a high amount of ground balls compared to the MLB average.

On the season, Hicks's numbers are much stronger. He currently is striking out batters at a ridiculous clip of 13.6 per nine innings. His early season numbers inflate his WHIP and opponent's batting average, but he has been very strong in his last few appearances. He pitched a total of 22 innings between the months of May and June while keeping batters to a .154 batting average and an OPS below .550. Hicks struck out 32 of the 91 batters he faced during that span (35.2%).

While Jordan Hicks may have had a bumpy start to the season, he has settled in nicely as the team's closer (and possible trade chip). Let's ignore his most recent blunder in the field...

Dylan Carlson

Once a top-ranked prospect in the organization, Dylan Carlson has fallen out of admiration with many fans. Carlson was a toolsy prospect who could play center field. For his career, he has a slash line of .247/.324/.405 for an OPS+ of 103. He has accumulated innings at every spot in the outfield for his career, though most of his innings have come from right and center field.

Carlson's season numbers are similar to his career numbers (.248/.328/.389, OPS+ of 96) albeit with a bit of a power dropoff. This is not where he has shown improvement. Rather, Carlson's improvement has been on the defensive side, particularly in center. He has 2 out above average thus far in center compared to -1 in right field. Actually, his center field numbers on the defensive side have always been positive while his corner numbers have been negative or neutral.

Another positive aspect of Carlson's game has been his barrel percentage. In his career, he barrels balls at a 6.4% rate; on the season, he has barreled balls at an 8.2%, 1.5% above league average. While his slugging is at .389, his expected slugging is .416, showing that there is room for growth. A center fielder who can hit for league average or slightly better is a commodity that many teams may want, particularly one who is only 24 and has three years of control left.

The Underperformers: Part 1

Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman is a tough player to pinpoint for this exercise. While he has upped his value by showing he can play center field handily, his offensive numbers have dipped across the board pretty heavily. For his career, he is slashing .265/.319/.408 for a league average 100 OPS+; however, on the season, he is slashing .237/.303/.391 for an OPS+ of only 89.

Most of his offensive struggles this year can be attributed to a career-high ground ball percentage (51.7% vs. league average of 44.7%). Also, Edman has a high chase rate of 36% and an even lower 15% barrel rate. He sprays the ball well since he is a switch-hitter, but he definitely hits better as a right-handed batter.

Despite his defensive versatility, Edman's value has probably dropped slightly this year to a drop-off in his offensive numbers. Edman is also getting near his career peak at 28 years old. As he ages, his defensive versatility will fall slightly.

Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman was one of the best hitters in the league through the month of May. Since then, he has seen a marked difference in his offensive numbers. In March-May, Gorman batted .275/.361/.570(!!) for an OPS above .900. Gorman did a good job of laying off the high fastball and instead focusing on fastballs down and off-speed pitches that missed the catcher's target.

Since May, Gorman has been abysmal, to put it bluntly. He has a slash line of .150/.225/.275 for an OPS well below .550. He seems to have reverted back to swinging at the high fastball as his K% is in the 10th percentile, his whiff percentage is in the 11th percentile, and his line drive percentage is 25.3%, lower than his career average significantly. His ground ball percentage has increased, leading to more soft contact.

While Gorman is still very young, he must take steps to correct issues that have been present in his offensive game since he was a prospect.

The Underperformers: Part 2

Jack Flaherty

For a career that has been riddled with injuries, Jack Flaherty has finally been healthy this year. However, health alone won't build up his trade value. Once a top-four Cy Young candidate in 2019, Flaherty has faced numerous struggles on the mound this year. For his career, he has a 3.57 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.172 WHIP, and he averages 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

The story this season has been much different. Through 86 innings, Jack has walked 46 batters and has a 4.60 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 1.558 WHIP. He is also striking out only 8.8 batters per nine innings. His fastball this year (92.9 MPH) is significantly slower than his fastball at his peak in 2019 (94.2 MPH).

Perhaps the biggest detriment to Flaherty's trade return potential would be his expiring contract at the end of the year. Volatility, a lack of control, and minimal contract duration are all impediments to Flaherty's trade value.

Matthew Liberatore

Matthew Liberatore has been worth -0.7 WAR. Need I continue? Liberatore will always be known as the pitcher the Cardinals got in exchange for Randy Arozarena, a fun, athletic, powerful outfielder. While it was never an idea to trade Liberatore this season, he could have been used as a supplementary piece in a bigger deal. That possibility has since faded.

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For the season, Liberatore has a 6.75 ERA, 1.844 WHIP, and gives up 12 hits per nine innings. He has, however, done a good job at limiting home runs this year (0.6/9 innings). His stats last year weren't strong, but the hope was that he would get over the rookie hump and show signs of improvement this year. He pitched very well in AAA, leading to his call-up last month. He has struggled mightily in the majors and has not shown signs of correction lately.

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