4 ways the Cardinals can approach the trade deadline, ranked in likeliest order

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While most of us were focused on the St. Louis Cardinals' play on the field during the London Series, perhaps the most important information we gathered came from the time that President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spent with the media that weekend. When asked about the Cardinals' plans at this year's trade deadline, Mozeliak was candid about the options that were on the table.

“I think we could probably define (four) models on how we think about the trading deadline,” President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said. “As we sit here on the 23rd of June, we still don’t know exactly which path we’ll walk. From a front office standpoint, we have to start preparing."
John Mozeliak

Four models? What does he mean by that? Well back in early June, I was able to talk to Mozeliak about how this deadline could play out, and he indicated something very similar to me. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat captured Mozeliak's most recent comments about this publicly, where Mozeliak further explains these four "models". They could look to buy, sell, do nothing, or a fourth path, which Mozleiak defines in this quote:

“There could be some deals made that ... maybe could help now, but also could help in the future, or that maybe could be more of a reshuffling."
John Mozeliak.

Everyone is going to have their own opinions on what the Cardinals should do at this trade deadline, but what I think matters most is what they actually will do in late July. We can talk all day about hypotheticals, but their actions, at the end of the day, are what will actually impact this team.

I've ranked the four scenarios, in order, of what I think is the Cardinals most likely approach at this year's trade deadline.

#4 - Do nothing

Luckily, I do not see any scenario where the trade deadline comes and passes and the Cardinals have made no moves. Mozeliak's comments indicate that strongly.

"We know we’re not where we want to be. We know we have to make some changes. We’ll try.”
John Mozeliak

There have been deadlines in the past (see 2017) where the Cardinals sat back and did not make a single move. Sometimes the club makes a series of smaller moves (J.A. Happ and Jon Lester in 2021), and sometimes they go and make some bigger swings (Harrison Bader-Jordan Montgomery in 2022).

This year's deadline will likely see the Cardinals make more moves than they've made in recent years (more on the specific moves later). There are just so many potential ways to capitalize on value, or improve this team, that they'll be able to pretty easily find moves to make.

I don't have a ton more to say here, because the real meat and potatoes come from the other three scenarios.

#3 - Buy

While they may make moves that are more "buying" in nature (again, see more on that later), the overwhelming likelihood is they will not be buyers, at least not in the traditional sense of acquiring rental players.

Yes, the club badly needs starting pitching help. Names like Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Lance Lynn, and Rich Hill could all help improve the Cardinals' rotation for the rest of the year, but would they really look to bring in a guy who is about to hit free agency when their playoff odds are so low?

This team knows they cannot take their eyes off 2024 anymore. They still have an outside chance to make the playoffs this year, but their focus needs to be on helping this team get better for next season and beyond, rather than jeopardizing that for short-term gain.

If the club was meeting my expectations from before the season started, they'd have firm control of first place right now and be ready to add as much talent as possible. But they simply are the furthest thing from that right now, and cannot find themselves in bidding wars with true contenders in a seller's market.

In fact, not only should they not be contending with the contenders in this market for win-now pieces, they should be pawning theirs off to them, which takes us to the second most likely scenario.

#2 - Sell

You'll see in a moment how the most likely scenario still includes this, but something that John Mozeliak has talked a lot about when it comes to this team is the ROI (return on investment) that the club can get from their impending free agents.

If you look around baseball, there are about 20-24 teams that I can see being "buyers" at this year's trade deadline because of the expanded playoffs and how bunched up teams are this year. Of those 24 teams, 18 of them should be fairly aggressive when it comes to adding talent.

That leaves us with 6-10 true sellers in this year's trade market. And when you compare the Cardinals assets to teams like the Nationals, Rockies, Athletics, Royals, and Tigers, you'll see why the Cardinals' front office may want to capitlize on their talent.

First, here's what they won't be selling. They will not be trading away Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, or guys like that for a full blown rebuild. It's not happening. But they do have assets that can bring them back significant talent.

While Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery have not been studs by any means this year, when you compare them to the other pitchers available on the market, they will actually be two of the strongest names available. Not only that, but almost every buyer in this year's market is going to be looking for starting pitching help. This means St. Louis will likely get more in return for those two starters than you would normally expect.

Jordan Hicks has been one of the best relievers in baseball as of late, and should fetch a really nice return as well for a contender looking to add elite stuff to their late inning group. Tyler O'Neill is a prime bounce back candidate that other teams will be interested in. Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and Genesis Cabrera are guys the Cardinals could captilzie on the value of as well. Even guys like Chris Stratton, Paul DeJong, and Drew VerHagen could grab value for them.

The Cardinals are going to lose Flaherty, Montgomery, and Hicks this offseason anyways. Why not just free up payroll with their depatures this offseason but also grab some valuable assets in the process?

But here is what I see, in combination with this scenario, as the Cardinals' number one strategy at this year's deadline.

#1 - Sell on pieces that will not be here in 2023, use remaining assets to retool for 2024

Call it a jump start on their offseason.

While they should for sure be shopping the names I listed earlier and getting the most return on investment that they can for them, they should also be looking to package some of their own young talent to improve their pitching staff for 2024 and beyond. What do I mean by that?

Say St. Louis trades all three of Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, and Jordan Hicks. Let's add in Tyler O'Neill and one of Ryan Helsley or Giovanny Gallegos as well. This means they are stockpiling on even more assets with an already strong farm system and young major league position player group. Some of these assets, especially if they are pitching, could be used to help the club in future seasons. Some could become trade chips later on like the Yankees did when they retooled at the 2016 deadline.

But what it really helps open up is the possibilities of the Cardinals acquiring controllable talent for 2024 and beyond.

Jon Morosi has already indicated that the Cardinals and Mariners have talked over the last year about various deals. The Mariners need young bats and have controllable arms like Logan Glibert, Bryce Miller, and George Kirby that they can deal. The Marlins are in a similar position with Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and mulitple top pitching prospects. The White Sox could be compelled to move on from Dylan Cease or Michael Koepch. The Guardians may be willing to deal Shane Bieber.

All of these pitchers have team control beyond 2023, meaning if the Cardinals make a move for them now, they are buying not only for this season, but for their 2024 team and possibly further out.

If this was a rebuild, you wouldn't see them engage in trade talks that could require them to move on from Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar. But when you are looing to retool, those guys become potential trade chips to acquire what you need. And if you are selling on assets like your impending free agents, you can have replenish some of that production you may lose.

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I would be shocked if St. Louis does not make a major effort to approach their deadline by capitilzing on the ROI of guys they do not see a future with beyond 2023, while also looking to add MLB ready arms for 2024 and beyond.

Check out my weekly podcast "Redbird Rundown" on Spotify or Apple Podcasts as well as follow me on Twitter @joshjacoMLB for more Cardinals content

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