The St. Louis Cardinals who will be most negatively impacted by MLB rule changes

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With MLB's new rule changes, these St. Louis Cardinals will be negatively impacted the most

Last week, I covered the St. Louis Cardinals players who will benefit the most from the MLB rule changes that are going into effect this season. Names like Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Willson Contreras should all see noticeable improvements or value added to the team in 2023.

On the other side of the coin, there are players around the league, and on the Cardinals, who will feel penalized and negatively impacted by these new rules that are in place. These players will have to find a way to adjust, or they may end up being frustrated throughout the season.

If you have forgotten which rule changes go into effect this year, the major ones include the following: a ban on extreme infield shifts, the introduction of a pitch clock, larger bases, and a limit on how often a pitcher can throw over to a base to hold a runner. More information about these rule changes can be found at MLB.com.

When you look at these rules changes, certain players types come to mind. Left-handed hitters, in general, should benefit from the shift changes, granted they put the ball in play at a high enough rate for it to have been a major impact in the first place. Groundball pitchers may find themselves giving up a few more hitters here and there.

Players who lack athleticism and play in the infield will suffer from not being covered by the shift, and players who do boast quickness will benefit from not only the shift making their defense more valuable but also the pitch clock and larger bases to increase steal attempts.

Let's take a look at the Cardinals I think will be most negatively impacted by the new MLB rule changes this season.

Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman continues to be underrated by many around baseball entering camp in 2023, as he's gone from an exciting young slugger to almost an afterthought on this Cardinals roster. Although I still see him as a valuable piece, there's no denying the rule changes did not do him any favors.

Defensively, the Cardinals already had question marks about Gorman over at second base. There is a natural improvement that will happen for him there, as he just recently transitioned to play the position in the last few seasons. But his lack of lateral quickness and below-average defensive ability will be further exposed at second base this year, barring major improvements.

One may look at the shift ban as a benefit to Gorman offensively, and while it may end up being that, his strikeout rate tempers how much it will truly impact him. If Gorman cuts down significantly on that number in 2023 and is putting the ball in play more consistently, then he will surely see a rise in his batting average with the shift no longer in play. But if he remains a very high strikeout player, I think it will be a minimal improvement at best.

Remember, this is who will be negatively impacted by the rule changes, not a list of who will now be a "bad player" because of it. Gorman can overcome these new hurdles, but it's clear they added complications to areas of his game where there were already question marks.

Andre Pallante

Andre Pallante was one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season for the Cardinals and provided a reliable arm down the stretch due to his 63.9% groundball rate, which was second in baseball out of all pitchers who threw over 100 innings.

See what I am getting at here?

The new rule changes won't make being a ground ball pitcher a bad thing, but it will increase the need, especially from bullpen arms, to have more strikeout stuff in their game. Pallante averaged 6.1 SO/9 last season, so his reliance on the ground ball is a very real thing. His 3.17 ERA during the season was great, but a 3.98 FIP indicates that he receives a ton of help from his defense.

While Pallante should still be a quality arm for St. Louis this season, it's fair to wonder whether or not we'll see significant regression from the right-hander in 2023, especially if a guy like Gorman sees significant time at second base.

The Cardinals' starting pitching

Like Pallante, it's been well documented that this Cardinals' pitching staff lacks strikeout stuff, especially in their starting rotation. Jack Flaherty's return should help with that, but outside of him, there is a lot of "pitch-to-contact" kind of guys.

In 2022, the St. Louis rotation ranked 26th in the league with a 6.98 SO/9, while they were a major beneficiary of ground ball outs, ranking 3rd with a 1.21 GO/AO. The way this Cardinals' pitching staff found success was by getting balls on the ground, and while that is not a bad strategy moving forward, it's not as effective as it once was.

The Cardinals' shouldn't expect to see guys like Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, or Jordan Montgomery all of a sudden be horrible pitchers, but like Pallante, regression could be on the table if they are not able to produce more swings and misses.

This could lead to the Cardinals leaning toward a more defensive-minded middle infield during the season if they are noticing major issues. Brendan Donovan could become the primary second baseman, or if things were bad enough, Tommy Edman could move over to second with Paul DeJong at shortstop.

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With MLB's new rule changes, these St. Louis Cardinals will be negatively impacted the most

Nolan Gorman

Andre Pallante

The Cardinals' starting pitching

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