The pros and cons if the Cardinals trade Paul Goldschmidt this off-season

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The Cardinals will be one of the teams to keep a close eye on this winter. Coming off one of the worst seasons in franchise history, the fan base will expect some changes to the roster for the 2024 season. Whether it is via a big free agent signing or a big trade, we can expect the Cardinals to not make 2023 a common theme if they can help it.

As I mentioned earlier, there is nothing currently that would make anyone think that the Cardinals will trade or even explore a trade involving first basemen Paul Goldschmidt. But you could make the argument that it might make sense to move him. He is going into the final year of a 5 year 130 million dollar contract and is going into his age 36 season.

There was a considerable decline in his numbers this season which was somewhat expected after winning the National League MVP in 2022, but they were still great numbers, especially for somebody in his mid-30s. Over Goldschmidt's five seasons in St. Louis, he has been a reliable bat and glove, hitting towards the top of the order, and has played every day, as he has only missed 24 total games since 2019.

How many teams could use somebody like Goldschmidt? I am not advocating for the Cardinals to trade Goldschmidt, it would definitely be a huge loss, but like with most trades there are some potential positives and some negatives for all parties involved. There are three potential pros and three potential cons when it comes to trading Goldschmidt this off-season. We will start with the pros.

Pro #1: Goldschmidt's value could get the Cardinals some MLB-ready starting pitching

There is no doubt that if Goldschmidt was made available there would be plenty of suitors, and some of those teams have plenty of options when it comes to pitching which is what the Cardinals need.

The Cardinals would be losing a middle-of-the-order hitter and one of the better defensive first basemen in the game, but that value could give the Cardinals what they need the most, which is dependable pitching.

If you think about teams who currently have lots of solid pitchers but are lacking a bit on the offensive end, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Seattle immediately come to mind, those teams could have some young pitching that the Cardinals would be interested in investing in for the long haul.

Pro #2: The Cardinals would get something for Goldschmidt in case he leaves in free agency or retires after 2024

Goldschmidt is a guy who keeps to himself and doesn't give the media that much when it comes to soundbites, so he doesn't seem like a guy who'll talk a whole lot about being a free agent next year, so this is just speculation.

I would say the chances of Goldschmidt signing with St. Louis to end his career here are strong, but if that is not the case then the Cardinals would surely get more than just a draft compensation pick in a trade.

As he gets closer to free agency we will probably hear more rumors and speculation than we are currently, but it could be a situation the Cardinals will have to pay attention to in 2024, especially if the Cardinals find themselves out of contention again and Goldschmidt is having another strong season.

Pro #3: Goldschmidt may not be more valuable than he is right now

This would also be pure speculation on the Cardinals' part if they feel like Goldschmidt would significantly decline as he goes into his late 30s, but will he actually decline? "Goldy" won the MVP in 2022 in his age 34 season, he's the oldest MVP since Barry Bonds won the 2004 NL MVP at age 40.

For most players however, their numbers do decline as they get older, and Goldschmidt will be 37 at the time he's going to be eligible for free agency, what if he'll never be as valuable as he is now? Would the Cardinals be missing out on an opportunity to set themselves up better for the future? Depending on how this off-season goes and how next season goes, those are some questions that the Cardinals might need to address.

Let's look at the three cons if the Cardinals decide to trade Paul Goldschmidt.

Con #1: The Cardinals would be losing a middle of the order hitter who has been relied on to drive in runs

Obviously taking Goldschmidt out of the Cardinals lineup would be a massive loss. In Goldschmidt's full seasons with the Cardinals (excluding 2020), he has hit at least .265 with a minimum of 25 home runs and 80 RBI, that production is very difficult to replace.

Would the Cardinals be willing to sacrifice a little offensive production to make improvements to the pitching staff? It would be a risk no question, because if the pitching struggles again like it did last season, then the lineup would be relied on more to win games, and not having Goldschmidt in the middle of that order, would make that much more complicated to accomplish.

Con #2: The Cardinals don't currently have anybody ready to replace Goldschmidt at 1st base

Looking at the current roster for the Cardinals, they have some guys who could play first base and did so from time to time this season. The players we saw the most at first base when Goldschmidt had a day off were Luken Baker and Alec Burleson.

Baker is coming off a fantastic season in the minor leagues, winning the International League MVP, but he did not see the same success at the plate in the big leagues in limited time. Also, Baker isn't as blessed defensively as the 4-time Gold Glove winner Goldschmidt is so that would be another thing the Cardinals would be losing, as the Cardinals took a huge step back in their defensive play this season.

And then Alec Burleson spent most of his time in the outfield while playing first base on occasion. If Burleson wanted to play every day it would probably have to be at first base due to the current outfield logjam, but has he shown enough to be an everyday player? And some people have thrown around the idea of moving Jordan Walker to first, the problem with that is he has never played first base at the professional level and made huge strides defensively in right field at the end of this season. So do the Cardinals have someone who could play first base every day? At this point, I would say they do not.

Con #3: No Goldschmidt in the lineup could affect Nolan Arenado offensively

Having Goldschmidt out of the lineup would cost the Cardinals an offensive weapon, but it could also have recurring effects on Nolan Arenado. In Goldschmidt's time with St. Louis, he has hit second and third in the lineup, and then Arenado has hit mostly clean-up, without Goldschmidt Arenado would move up to the three-hole, so the question would be who will be Arenado's protection in the lineup.

We saw mostly in the shortened 2020 season where teams did not attack Goldschmidt all that much because he was far and away the biggest threat in the lineup that year, he had limited protection. The current lineup is better than what it was a few years ago, but how many pitches would Arenado see in a lineup without Goldschmidt?

The two best options right now, in my opinion, to hit behind Arenado would be Willson Contreras and Nolan Gorman, Contreras was one of the best hitters in the league in the second half of last season, and Gorman has shown when he's on his game, he's one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball, so it may not affect Arenado as much as we think. However Goldschmidt has been the epitome of consistency throughout his Cardinal tenure, if Contreras and Gorman are as streaky as they were last season, teams may be hesitant towards pitching to Arenado.

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Also even if Contreras and Gorman are both going to have strong and consistent offensive seasons, losing Goldschmidt hurts the depth of the lineup. Moving everybody up one spot to fill that void might leave the bottom of the Cardinal order to be less dangerous, because as I said earlier, losing a guy who hits 25-30 home runs and drives in 80-100 runs is difficult to replace.

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The pros and cons if the Cardinals trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason