The next St. Louis Cardinals front office needs to address this reoccurring issue

Over the past decade, the St. Louis Cardinals have created a trend that you would think all fans would be in support of.

Many teams in MLB do not operate in this manner and many fans would desire to have their team make decisions like this. Homegrown stars will ride out their arbitration years and then depart for free agency for the big contracts. It makes more logical sense to sign players to extensions before they become too expensive for your business model. The Cardinals have built a winning tradition where players want to stay and win. The Cardinals recognize this and act in favor of keeping a sustainable roster on an affordable budget. So where is the downside with this?

The Cardinals have a problem with signing players prematurely to lengthy contracts. Locking in players long-term should be a good thing right...? Most fans would think so. However, for the Cardinals, it has become a negative trend that is leading to more failure than success. Over the years, we have seen many players receive contract extensions or free-agent deals that seem a little too aggressive on length in term or average annual value. It is especially frustrating when it is for unproven players within the organization or if it is for players who are obviously on the decline in their careers.

Let's start with the 2016 season. Mike Leake signed a free agent deal to come to St. Louis for five years, $80 million dollars, with a full no-trade clause. At the time, the Cardinals came off of a very strong 2015 season and wanted to carry momentum for 2016. John Lackey left the team to join the rival Cubs and Lance Lynn was out with an injury. So solidifying the rotation makes sense. But signing a number four or five starter to a five-year contract seemed a little extreme at the time.

As it turned out, Leake's contract was one of the worst deals made by the John Mozeliak front office. Leake lasted nearly two seasons in St. Louis before being dumped for a minor-league prospect. The Cardinals were stuck paying out $17 million just to dump the remaining $53 million owed. It could've been worse, but it is still a bad business decision.

During that off-season, the Cardinals signed reliever Brett Cecil to a four-year, $30.5 million dollar contract also with a full no-trade clause. This deal has less guaranteed money, but the Cardinals had to swallow this entire contract and take the seismic loss. A four-year contract is very bold for a relief pitcher, let alone one who is 30 years old. The trade-off with this deal is that Brett Cecil was barely on the mound. He pitched 100 innings over two seasons before battling relentless injuries. The on-field value was horrendous, where he posted a 4.29 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and a 1.357 WHIP.

The latest of the bad contracts

Post-COVID in Cardinals Nation did not skip a beat! The Cardinals signed Steven Matz to a four-year, $44 million contract. He had a great 2021 season in Toronto and the Cardinals rolled the dice on his health hoping to repeat that production at a low cost.

Once again, the Cardinals need to avoid gambling. Matz is a frequent rider on the IL and cannot put together a full season as a reliable starter. When he can pitch, it is now as a long reliever due to his lack of performance when healthy. If this was a two-year contract, so be it. But again, long-term contracts continue to hurt Mozeliak and brass.

Are we done yet with recapping the history of premature lengthy contracts? Well, we are still waiting for the results of Willison Contreras' five-year deal that is worth $87.5 million. We are also awaiting the results of Sonny Gray's three-year deal worth $75 million.

It might be too early to make final decisions on if those will be worth the investment. But with the obvious track record here, all hope is gone. Whoever takes the lead in the next Cardinals front office needs to not act reactionary. If a player has one great season before free agency, look at his past first. Is this a fluke year? Or has he been trending in this direction for a while? "Players who want to be here" does not mean you give them full no-trade claused. Offering long-term contracts to play with the average annual value works for teams who are signing stars like the Dodgers. The Cardinals want to operate the same way but this method does not work when signing depth pieces.

There are many issues that need to be addressed and corrected with the next front office. Many areas of improvement might outweigh this trend I have addressed and those might turn this organization around at a much more rapid pace. But the matter is the Cardinals have an issue here with how they negotiate contracts and that needs to be looked at further. If this trend continues in the hands of Chaim Bloom, Randy Flores, or someone else, we will know there is a much deeper issue with the front office.