The National League Central fully embraces the bare minimum, Cardinals included
Teams across MLB are evolving with the game to find new ways to win. But the NL Central is contemptuous of their old ways of doing business.
The landscape of Major League Baseball has changed drastically over time and as recently as the latest CBA agreement. Teams are adjusting to rising salaries and costs within the game and finding new ways to build a foundational core. New rules and policies are generating enough buzz for fans to find a new love for the game and come back to America’s pastime. Teams are using the new rules and policies to find creative ways to build dynasties. We are seeing historic figures in ticket sales, ad revenues, merchandise sales, and social media interactions. The league is more profitable than ever and several teams are taking action because of it.
The Atlanta Braves have signed most of their young talent to long-term contracts to provide players with life-changing money that is still within the team's operating payroll for AAV and also buys out players' arbitration years (more on that later).
The Texas Rangers realized they had a very short window to jump the Houston Astros and truly compete for a World Series. They acted by signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to mega deals that purchased their new core going forward which quickly led to a World Series championship.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are…..well they are in their own league at this point. If teams are operating under the old norm, they will be left in the dust. Unless teams are changing how they operate within the new game, they do not stand a chance to compete going forward. The entire National League Central division is stuck in the old norm.
The reigning NL Central champions Milwaukee Brewers have been in the same rut dating back to 2018. They rely on the most dominant pitching staff in baseball to hold the score close while they rely on their mediocre offense to produce the minimum possible to win. Christian Yelich is still around, but he is not the superstar player he once was. The lineup needs more reliable options to get on base and drive in runs. The only potential fit to provide this is Willy Adames who is reportedly on the trade block this winter. Instead of extending a surefire talent to play shortstop for years to come, they would rather trade and collect unproven cost-controlled prospects.
This model leads to you relying on 37-year-old Josh Donaldson to provide any sort of pop to the lineup. Is the future core of Garrett Mitchell, William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and phenom Jackson Chourio very exciting? Absolutely. But it is not the best young core coming up in their division and it will not matter once the team trades Corbin Burnes. Instead of being creative and extending Burnes years ago, they decided to take one of the best aces in baseball to arbitration and fully offended him as a professional. Penny pinching for no necessary reason. I also haven't mentioned Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered this off-season.
The shocking and unexpected 2023 Chicago Cubs have rejuvenated the fanbase after years of letdown following the historic 2016 World Series championship. The organization was being hyped as the next dynasty in baseball with a strong core leading the way for years to come. Instead, we saw year after year of letdown, and eventually, the entire core was traded away. With the only thing left from the 2016 era being manager David Ross, the identity of the organization was non-existent. Cubs GM Jed Hoyer decided to act like a big market organization and signed Dansby Swanson to a multi-year deal and rolled the dice on the reclamation project Cody Bellinger. Both gambles paid off tremendously, as the Cubs almost clinched a postseason berth in a season where they were not expected to make any noise.
With the positive momentum in their favor, the organization made a bombshell announcement by firing David Ross and signing Craig Counsell to the richest contract in MLB history for a manager. This showed the Cubs were not messing around and were ready to build onto the new core. So far though, their only offseason acquisition has been Shota Imanaga. The idea to keep cheap and unproven talent but to simply manage them better to sustain a winning team is not a great look. This sounds like lost momentum from the outside perspective.
Oh, and we haven't even gotten to the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, and Pittsburgh Pirates yet.
The Reds and Pirates offer more of the same
The best core going forward belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. They had a fun summer breakout with many rookies flashing their potential and bringing the Reds back to relevance. It only took the organization a decade to get back to this point which essentially wasted any chance to get franchise icon Joey Votto a World Series ring. Votto was not offered an extension and is now exploring Free Agency for the first time in his career. The Reds feel ready to move on from their veteran leadership and to fully invest in the young core to win games on their own. So how have the Reds supplemented the roster to add in veteran presence?
The Reds have been busy this winter, which is a good sign for fans. Jeimer Candelario is their biggest splash, but he really does not fit on the current roster unless they want him to take over Votto full-time at first base. Emilio Pagan and Buck Farmer were added to the bullpen which would be nice moves if it was two years ago. Nick Martinez was signed as a swing man option which will be a sneaky move. Lastly, they signed Frankie Montas who is extremely questionable with his shoulder health. The Reds are showing an effort to build onto the roster to further compete next season. But is patching holes enough to compete when the roster was not strong enough to make the wild card? The development of this exciting young core will be the answer to that question.
The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be one of the biggest laughingstocks in professional sports. Owner Bob Nutting is one of the tightest owners in the sport and will never show the effort to financially invest in a roster. Year after year, Pirates fans watch the team develop promising prospects, let them fail at the major league level, and then trade them for quantity over quality while the players flourish on their new teams.
The organization has spent over a decade failing to build a sustainable core and continues to do so. Oneill Cruz is the most exciting player since Gerrit Cole to make the big league team. Prospects Temarr Johnson and Paul Skenes are expected to become stars at the big league level in the next several seasons. Ownership showed some kind of investment by locking in Bryan Reynolds to a multi-year extension after he publicly stated he wanted out of Pittsburgh.
With all the financial resources to build a stronger current roster, the team instead has bargain deals for Rowdy Tellez, Martin Perez, and signing aged veteran/franchise icon Andrew McCutchen this offseason. No player will want to play in Pittsburg if you operate a franchise like this. They have one of the best ballparks in sports and the city displays more passion for their teams than any other city in the country. Take better care of your investment and make it premier within the league.
And then there are the reigning last-place finishers...
And then there's the Cardinals
Ending with the St. Louis Cardinals, they have played the same strings every off-season and fans commit to the idea every time. The team lacked a foundation from 2016 to 2020. 2021 was a great step forward with a new outfield coming together in Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, and the breakout of Tyler O’Neill. Tommy Edman became the best homegrown star in years and the minor league depth was stacked with very promising talent. The future was teasing the arrivals of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, and Masyn Winn.
But 2021 and 2022 showed the broken shell that never fixes itself. Management decided to roll the dice on potential versus addressing blatant holes in the roster. In 2021 we saw Jon Lester and JA Happ patch the starting rotation which was a bandaid on an open wound. 2022 exposed the lack of starting pitching even more with a myriad of pitchers throughout the organization making spot starts or being overused in relief outings. Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright both logged high inning totals but no other pitcher logged more than 150 innings on the season. Dakota Hudson was diminished, Jack Flaherty barely pitched, Steven Matz was limited in use, Matthew Liberatore was stuck between being an AAA pitcher and an MLB pitcher, and the list can go on.
Mozeliak patched holes again by trading for Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery. The resurgence of Albert Pujols distracted fans from the glaring issues that never fixed themselves and the nostalgia train continues to roll. The 2022 ended in absolute shock as the Cardinals completely imploded in the Wild Card series vs the Phillies. With the high AAV for Yadier Molina coming off the books, the Cardinals needed to address replacing the heart of the organization and they did it in NL Central fashion.
The organization promised to increase payroll which misguided fans into believing that they were finally going to act like a big market club and make a push to build a powerhouse roster. Instead, the team signed Willson Conteras to a long-term contract that paid a slightly cheaper AAV than the diminished Yadier Molina and did not add any pitchers to the already exposed staff. This was a gamble to see if prior investments would ever return to their expected values or if management truly failed at evaluating pitching. The latter was the case.
The Cardinals had an extremely disappointing season in 2023 which led to a fire sale at the trade deadline. The best option to keep to build a new rotation was traded to Jordan Montgomery. Adam Wainwright and his $17.5 million AAV contract is finally off the books after the worst season of his career and the worst season for any pitcher in MLB last season. The payroll is freed up, and Mozeliak has many resources available to him to finally address the glaring issue that has been around for almost a decade.
Mo has acted fast by signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. All are short-term deals and all are considered discounted in today’s current market, Gray is a great signing, but it barely scratches the surface for fixing the rotation issues. Lynn and Gibson are aged veterans with many innings on their arms which is a huge risk considering how they pitched in 2023. Their cross-state rivals barely spent more for Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo who are much more reliable at this point in time. The innings issue was met which is the face value selling point management wants to sell to fans. Once fans buy into this belief, they have won again.
Many moves are left to be made for John Mozeliak before spring training. But knowing how last off-season went with only one signing not changing anything, this could be it for the Cardinals this off-season. If the Cardinals are satisfied with the current roster to compete for 2024, it will not be for a World Series. They will be competing to do the bare minimum to win the division and roll the dice on playoff odds. With the most passionate fan base in baseball filling Busch Stadium in October, the organization will be winning regardless. The NL Central is not changing its business model with the league changing as a whole. They will continue to make their profits at as little cost as possible. It is okay though, we are all in “small markets”.