The good, the bad, and the ugly for Cardinals prospects in the Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League is a five-week league that takes place every October. It doesn't work like regular minor-league baseball, however. Organizations don't have affiliate teams. Instead, they send a specific group of seven players. These players are then paired with the groups sent by several other teams to form one of the AFL's six teams. Anyone within an organization is eligible, though these spots are usually reserved for players with significant upside. Often, you may see players who missed time during the regular season.

For the 2023 season, the Cardinals selected RP Edwin Nunez, RP Andre Granillo, SP Cooper Hjerpe, SP Tekoah Roby, OF Victor Scott II, C Jimmy Crooks III, and SS Jeremy Rivas. This is a really interesting crop of players with some big names. Perhaps no other prospect in the organization raised his stock in 2023 as much as Victor Scott II did. He stole 93 bases for Springfield and Memphis during the regular season and flashed elite defense in CF. Roby and Hjerpe are two of the team's most exciting pitching prospects. Roby was acquired in a midseason trade while Hjerpe was selected in the first round of the 2022 MLB Amateur draft. Both have shown immense promise and could fit in at the front of the Cardinals' rotation within a few years. However, both missed time in 2023 with injuries, prompting the Cardinals to assign them to the fall league.

The Arizona Fall League is full of prospects to watch. Sometimes, it can jumpstart a failing career. Just last year, Connor Thomas enjoyed an incredible run, although he failed to capitalize on that momentum by posting a disastrous 5.53 ERA with Memphis this season. That's exactly what Jeremy Rivas is looking to do. Though he's still just 20, he's in his third season with the organization and has struggled with each assignment. Other times, the fall league can highlight a player coming off a strong season. Edwin Nunez enjoyed a fantastic season between Peoria and Palm Beach. A good fall league run could portend a more aggressive assignment in 2023, perhaps starting with Springfield.

Today, we'll break down each player's performance and discuss how they've impacted the organization's plans for 2024. The performances will be broken into three tiers: the good, the bad, and the ugly!

The Bad

SP Inohan Paniagua

Though there may be depth issues at the upper levels, the lower levels are full of intriguing arms. Paniagua is one of these arms. In 2022 the young righthander broke out, posting a 2.81 ERA across three levels. He racked up 145 strikeouts in 137.2 innings, putting himself firmly on the organizational radar. Unfortunately, he took. a sizable step back in 2023. His ERA jumped almost two full points and he failed to make the jump to AA. Much of the ineffectiveness can be attributed to injury. Paniagua appeared in just 14 games, pitching only 48 innings. He continued to generate strikeouts at a high level but exhibited uncharacteristically wild control. The Cardinals hadn't seen enough and assigned him to the AZFL.

Paniagua's trip through the fall league resembled his 2023 season. He treaded water but failed to distinguish himself. His strikeout rates remained strong (17 in 16.2 innings) and he managed to cut down on the walks (6 in 16.2 innings), but Paniagua still pitched to a 4.86 ERA. The Cardinals are undoubtedly pleased by the improved control, and that's the major takeaway from this stretch. However, poor run prevention may result in a less aggressive assignment for 2024. Whether Paniagua starts at AA or not, expect him to reach Springfield by the end of the 2024 season.

SP Cooper Hjerpe

Cooper Hjerpe was selected by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2022 draft. The lefty is widely regarded as a high-ceiling talent with the potential to someday pitch near the front of a competitive rotation. The Cardinals need him to realize that potential within the next few years to continue contending. Hjerpe's first season in the minors was encouraging. He appeared in ten games (eight starts) and pitched a total of 41 innings. Across those frames, he compiled an ERA of 3.51 and struck out 51 hitters. Like Paniagua, his biggest problem was his inability to remain healthy. Hjerpe missed a large portion of the season. Thankfully, he was healthy enough for fall ball.

In the AZFL, Hjerpe held his own. Perhaps "bad" is unfair. His performance, like Paniagua's, was middling. He did some really good things (like striking out 15 hitters in 8.1 frames) and he did some bad things (like walking 6 across those same 8.1 innings). Ultimately, he posted a 4.32 ERA. The Cardinals will likely want to see him improve his control next year. Until he does so, he may remain in the lower levels. However, it must be noted that the Cardinals have chosen to aggressively promote some pitching prospects. It's difficult to say with any certainty how they'll proceed with Hjerpe, but I predict he'll reach the AA level by the midway point of 2024. He may even pitch in Memphis down the stretch.

The Ugly

SS Jeremy Rivas

Jeremy Rivas is probably the lowest-profile name of the bunch. He's only 20, but he's trending away from relevance. In 2021, Rivas posted an OPS of .667 in the Florida Complex League. Unfortunately, his numbers regressed in each of the two subsequent seasons. His time in the fall league was much of the same. Rivas posted a .612 OPS with an alarmingly high strikeout rate and virtually no power.

Perhaps his best path back to prospect status is his defensive abilities. However, the normally sure-handed shortstop did not have his best showing defensively in the AZFL. His .932 fielding percentage was significantly worse than the .957 mark he posted with Peoria. The organization is likely still high on his defensive abilities, and if his bat takes a step forward, he could easily find himself on the Cardinals' top 30 prospect list.

SP Tekoah Roby

Tekoah Roby, acquired in last summer's Jordan Montgomery trade, had a disastrous run through the Arizona Fall League. In just 13.2 innings, he gave up 12 runs (9 earned runs). Those numbers work out to a 7.90 ERA. Roby did flash high-octane strikeout stuff but allowed two home runs and far too many hits. This disappointing performance followed up a strong debut season in the Cardinals' system. Roby struck out 19 in 12 innings with Springfield, allowing just four earned runs in that time.

Roby remains one of the Cardinals' top pitching prospects and should reach the majors by the end of the 2025 season at the very latest. This tough stretch should not be held against the young righty. He could potentially pitch at AAA next season, though the Cardinals may exercise caution with Roby considering his recent injury history.

C Jimmy Crooks III

Jimmy Crooks III had a disappointing showing in the AZFL. After an excellent offensive season, Cardinals fans were excited to watch him mash with Scottsdale. He did the opposite. Crooks came to the plate only 49 times in 14 games. He recorded just eight hits (two doubles, zero home runs) and struck out a whopping ten times. Thankfully, Crooks did come through with a couple of clutch hits for the Scottsdale Scorpions, including this go-ahead RBI single.

This is not representative of who Crooks is as a prospect. He's a vital piece of the impressive catching depth the Cardinals have cultivated over the last several years. Crooks is absolutely still on the club's radar. This stretch is best viewed as a speed bump for a prospect with plenty of upside. Crooks technically appeared with Memphis during their stretch run, although he's likely to start 2024 in Springfield.