The Cardinals' offense cratering overnight accelerated change for St. Louis

I was one of the people who bought into the St. Louis Cardinals rebounding in 2024, getting back to the playoffs on the backs of a strong offense, improved defense, playable rotation, and dynamic bullpen. Well, all of those things happened except for the offense leading the team.

We've beaten this to death by now, but I think these numbers highlighting the Cardinals' steep decline offensively, seemingly overnight, are just jarring to look at. And it may be the reason this front office now has to answer for their systematic issues.

The Cardinals' offense cratered after the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline

Going into this season, I was quick to point out how the Cardinals' offense was a top-seven unit in baseball going into the 2023 Trade Deadline. It wasn't all that shocking to me that the unit took a significant step back in August and September.

Brendan Donovan missed that entire stretch and had been sparking the Cardinals' offense all season, other names continued to hit the injured list like Nolan Gorman, Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Nolan Arenado, and in general, the team had given up on the season. I believed that when the club had something to play for again in 2024, they'd get back to being one of the top lineups in the game.

Boy was I wrong. Look at how steep the decline was for the offense from prior to the trade deadline in 2023 to what the offense has put up since then.

The offense went from a lineup that was clearly in the top third in all of baseball to a bottom-third lineup in the game seemingly overnight. Sure, regression from veterans like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt was bound to happen, but how far they've fallen is shocking. But what has been most mind-boggling of all has been the major regression almost across the board for their young bats.

Sure, Burleson saw better results in 2024, and Donovan has mostly been the same player as he was in 2023, but Nootbaar, Walker, and Gorman have taken major steps back in their production from what they were able to do before. Looking at the veterans, it's been awesome to see Contreras hit like a guy who will get MVP votes for the last year and a half, but that has not been enough to make up for the fall-off we've seen from Goldschmidt and Arenado.

Before the deadline last year, the Cardinals had four hitters who were 20% above league average or better, one who barely missed the cut, and the duo of Contreras and Walker who were both ascending toward that number (or much higher for Contreras). Now outside of their superstar catcher who has missed a ton of time this year, the Cardinals have no other players that are eclipsing that 120 wRC+ mark.

Some people saw the decline of the Cardinals' offense in the final two months of 2023 and saw that as a sign of things to come, and they ended up being right. But looking back, I still find it hard to believe we got to where we are at.

Even if you thought Goldschmidt and Arenado would regress, did you see them both going from All-Star level bats for most of 2023 to at or below-league-average offensive producers? Did you see Walker ascending his production and think he'd be lost at the plate in 2024? Did you think Gorman would become the bad version of Chris Davis?

Well, it doesn't really matter anymore, because this is the reality the Cardinals find themselves in, and it may be what accelerates major changes in St. Louis.

The Cardinals' offensive decline should be the straw that breaks the camel's back

The Cardinals' issues go much deeper than an underperforming offense, but the fact that their most talented unit has struggled the way it has should be what results in major changes this offseason.

I'm honestly now sure how a new regime should fix this offense. Maybe they use 2025 as a year to "see what they have" in these young bats. Let new coaches and a new front office see what they can do with these guys and then decide what's best going forward.

I also see the argument that a shake-up in this group is needed regardless - more than just letting Goldschmidt walk. Maybe moving one or two of Gorman, Burleson, or Herrera and reshuffling the deck can help unlock this offense in a different way.

What shouldn't be up for debate is that the Cardinals' front office as currently constructed should not be making those decisions. Chaim Bloom should be the one to present the fix for this underperforming unit. Turner Ward should not be the coach to work with these hitters moving forward. We already know Gary LaRoque will not be overseeing the development of young bats in the minor leagues anymore either.

If I were in the Cardinals' front office, I'd be beyond frustrated with how the offense has turned out in the last year and a half. There really is no excuse for it to be performing this poorly, and I was in agreement with the front office in believing it would be much better. But at the end of the day, they have to answer for the issues at hand, and even if the offense falling off is more on the players, there are too many issues with this organization right now not to make changes at the top.