The Cardinals missed big on Bryce Harper. They’re about to miss big on Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani the Pitcher

A healthy Ohtani would be by far the most attractive starting pitcher on the market for the Cardinals’ needs. He is able to pitch deep into games when necessary, has better strikeout stuff than anyone else on the market (career K/9 of 11.4), and at age 29 is amidst his reign of dominance on the mound, posting a 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 156 ERA+ since his unanimous MVP campaign in 2021. When compared to the available MLB-proven talent in Nola, Snell, Gray, and Montgomery, Ohtani is the best choice in nearly every facet. Sure he's only able to pitch every six days instead of every five, but the Cardinals would have enough intriguing options to fill that during the regular season.

Unfortunately, Ohtani's UCL injury has left him unable to pitch in 2024. On the bright side, Ohtani did not need to undergo a second Tommy John Surgery, so his recovery process should be much easier this time. It's expected he will make a full recovery to pitching by 2025, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to return as a high-leverage reliever come Postseason time. Sure, there is more risk in Ohtani than in other available starters who are healthy, but he's returned from elbow injuries before with no signs of decline. As Jeff Passan wrote, "Doubt him at your peril."

The risk involved in Ohtani's pitching has also been built into his contract projections. As we established previously, Ohtani the pitcher will be signed for 9 years with an AAV of $25 million. According to Bowden, here are projections for the other top starters the Cardinals may target:

Yes, Ohtani has more years and more money than each of the other starters listed, but his AAV is significantly lower than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a starter with no Major League experience, and comparable to Montgomery, Nola, and Snell. I love Yamamoto as an option, but if he's going to be $5 million more expensive per year than Ohtani, I'd choose Ohtani without question. When compared to Ohtani, Montgomery's strikeout numbers are far too low, Snell is incapable of eating innings, and Nola's regression in 2023 is too big a cause for concern. Sonny Gray is definitely a reliable and cheaper choice, but as we established on the Noot News Podcast, Gray cannot be the only top-tier addition to the rotation. If healthy, Ohtani would be a bargain for the Cardinals, they'll just have to wait a year for him to be ready.

Ohtani the International Sensation

Pitching and hitting like Ohtani does is generational. Nobody will dispute that. But there is a third aspect of Ohtani that many teams, such as the Cardinals, are likely underestimating. And that’s the value Ohtani will bring internationally. Despite baseball fandom being largely regionalized in America, Ohtani’s stardom transcends that, and he will bring in an entirely new demographic of Cardinals fans in Japan. That value is hard to quantify, and it’s likely no player has ever had the influence that Ohtani does internationally.

As a Cardinals fan, this is blasphemous to say, but Cardinals fans are not “the best fans in baseball.” Cardinals fans are the best fans in MLB. Japanese baseball fans are the best fans in baseball. A group stage game in the 2023 World Baseball Classic between Korea and Japan drew 62 million viewers alone, more than the most watched World Series game ever and putting to shame the 11.8 million viewer average for the 2022 World Series between the Astros and Phillies. While the championship game between the USA and Japan (which was played at 8 a.m. on a Wednesday morning in Japan) didn’t draw as much viewership in Japan, 97% of TVs in Japan were still tuned in. Ratings for every Samurai Japan game in 2023 compared to that of the Super Bowl. And who was front and center? None other than Shohei Ohtani.

It’s hard to quantify what Ohtani means to the country of Japan, but it far transcends what we’ve seen for any baseball player in recent memory, maybe ever. Ohtani’s likeness is on billboards all over Japan, and there’s even a Japanese TV station that broadcasts Angels games but keeps the camera on Ohtani at all times. When Ohtani was named American League MVP in 2021, the Tokyo Tower was lit in colors reminiscent of the Halo at Angel Stadium. No current American athlete can compare to what Ohtani means to Japan. His influence mirrors that of Lionel Messi in Argentina or Cristiano Ronaldo in Portugal. Lars Nootbaar phrased it best: “His face is everywhere. He’s Michael Jordan times the Beatles in Japan.”

With Ohtani’s prominence in Japan also comes the prominence of the Los Angeles Angels. Any Major League Baseball merchandise found in Japan is likely to be Angels gear. Fans in Japan represent the Angels everywhere they go. If the Yankees and Dodgers are the most recognizable teams for sports fans in the US, the Angels stand with them in terms of international recognizability. Angel Stadium is plastered with sponsorships for Japanese companies, as there are probably far more Angels fans living in Japan than in Anaheim. Whichever team lands Ohtani this offseason not only lands the best baseball player in the world but also more international influence than they could imagine.

From a business standpoint, Ohtani in St. Louis would be a dream for ownership. With the ability to garner lucrative brand deals from overseas, and sell merchandise to an entirely new demographic of fans, the Cardinals would certainly become a “big-market team.” As long as Ohtani maintains his current level of play in St. Louis, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals wouldn’t instantly become among the most valuable franchises alongside the Yankees and Dodgers. In the long-term, if Ohtani were to win a World Series and retire in a Cardinals uniform, the Cardinals’ brand and recognizability would flourish long after his career is over.

Ohtani the St. Louisan?

Now, let's speculate. Obviously, if Ohtani doesn’t want to play in St. Louis, then the Cardinals have no shot of landing him in free agency. It’s been long reported that Ohtani prefers the West Coast as it’s closer to Japan, and while that is likely true it shouldn’t rule out the possibility he lands elsewhere. Prior to joining the Angels in 2017, Shohei’s shortlist of teams also included the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Cubs with the Rangers and Cubs notably being midwestern teams just like the Cardinals. Other skeptics have also wondered, like Kris Bryant, “Who would want to play in St. Louis?” Those who make this argument, however, have no understanding of Ohtani and his true desire: winning a championship.

Sure, St. Louis isn’t the most exciting city in the world, but for Shohei Ohtani, that shouldn’t be an issue. While playing for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB, Ohtani voluntarily lived in the team’s dormitories where he was only ever allowed to leave with permission from his manager and coaches despite being one of the most well-recognized superstars in Japan. He also stated that getting a driver's license in Japan was too much effort as he only wanted to go to and from the stadium anyway. When the Angels were in St. Louis in May, when Samurai Japan teammate Lars Nootbaar invited Ohtani to lunch, Ohtani declined as he was sleeping to recover for his upcoming start. Evidently, Ohtani’s sole commitment is to winning baseball games, and the location of the team he plays for shouldn’t play a role in where he signs.

For winning baseball, is there really a better place than St. Louis? Aside from the abysmal 2023, the Cardinals have been a model organization that’s in contention nearly every season and has a long-running tradition of championship success. Other than the Yankees, no other team has been as successful as the Cardinals at winning championships. The roster construction for 2024, assuming the Cardinals fulfill their commitment to adding pitchers in the offseason, also points to this winning trend continuing into the future.

Ohtani is certainly no stranger to members of the Cardinals organization. As mentioned earlier, he and Lars Nootbaar became close friends during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. In May, Nootbaar wrote in a piece for the Players' Tribune stating, “I wouldn’t trade playing in St. Louis for anything.” In addition to Nootbaar, Ohtani is also close to Cardinals legend and former Angels teammate Albert Pujols.

After being released by the Angels in 2021, Pujols called Ohtani during the Home Run Derby to provide him with words of wisdom. The two were also seen hugging and catching up at the 2022 All-Star Game. Pujols’ love for the Cardinals organization speaks for itself, and it’s no secret how much he preferred the winning culture in St. Louis compared to Anaheim. Ohtani himself had a front-row seat in 2019 when Albert clubbed a homer at Busch Stadium during his first trip back, receiving a thunderous curtain call as a visiting player.

Ohtani has played coy with the media when asked where he’d be interested in signing, so this is all merely speculation. There could be some unknown reason Ohtani dislikes the Cardinals, but we’ll never know if that's the case. If all Shohei wants a winning organization, however, St. Louis should be near the top of his list as a potential suitor.

So what now?

No, it's not happening. Like with Bryce Harper, the Cardinals are not interested in signing Shohei Ohtani this offseason. But, they're making a huge mistake. As we've established, Ohtani would be a perfect fit in St. Louis. The already potent lineup would become otherworldly with his threatening bat in the heart of the order. The disastrous pitching rotation could still be patched in 2024 with the team's remaining assets, and once Ohtani returns in 2025 it would instantly become elite. Moreover, millions of Japanese baseball fans would instantly become Cardinals fans. It would be Bill DeWitt's dream.

Unfortunately, for a front office that’s notoriously risk averse, they will not go down this route. However, if the Cardinals have learned anything from their failures in 2023 it’s that their old philosophies may no longer work. If there’s any year to take a big risk on one player this is the year. Even calling Shohei Ohtani a once-in-a-generation player is disingenuous. We’ve never seen anybody do what he’s capable of. Not even Babe Ruth. We may never see this again. 

The Cardinals need to offer Shohei Ohtani a competitive contract. He might not accept it. He might sign with a team he prefers more, and that’s fine. There will be multiple suitors in line offering similar deals, and for Ohtani, it’s never been about the money. Sadly, they just won't do it. Perhaps in five years, after another early Postseason exit, the Cardinals will watch Shohei Ohtani the Seattle Mariner hitting clutch home runs, headlining a top-tier pitching staff and wonder why they didn't sign him for such a bargain. Maybe then they'll finally learn from their mistakes.