The Cardinals and Marlins are perfect partners for an Ivan Herrera trade

The Cardinals and Marlins have what each other needs in a trade

Herrera is just 23 years old and has been one of the Cardinals' best-performing prospects so far in 2023.

In 162 at-bats in Triple-A this year, he's hitting .296 with 6 HR and 34 RBI while positing a .956 OPS. His bat is mashing and would provide immense value for a big-league club. Herrera was fast-tracked to St. Louis last year because of how desperate the Cardinals were for catching help, and he's proving that he's still a very valuable prospect despite what seemed like a down 2022.

Why would the Cardinals part with a high-performing prospect like Herrera? Well, there are multiple reasons why they could value him highly as a trade asset right now.

First, Willson Contreras is in year one of a five year deal. It's very easy to rag on him right now with the slump he is going through, but the Cardinals really want, and honestly need, Contreras to be the kind of catcher who can perform most days of the week, at least for the first two or three years of his deal. They also really like what Andrew Knizner brings to their clubhouse and as a backup catcher. While I am sure they think Herrera will be better than Knizner, he may just not have a lot of opporunitiy in the near future.

St. Louis also has other catching prospects they are excited about right now, with the first one being Leonardo Bernal, a 19-year-old playing in Class-A Palm Beach. He is currently their 9th-ranked prospect on MLB.com, but many outlets think even higher of him long-term. He is just 19 and in Class-A though, so there is a long way to go in his development. They also have Jimmy Crooks III, a 21-year-old catcher in High-A Peoria who was drafted in the 4th round last year. He tore up Class-A last year and has been struggling a bit in High-A, but he has less than 100 minor-league games under his belt. Both players have an ETA of 2025.

For Miami, the prospect of getting a young, controllable catcher like Herrera should be very appealing for them. Miami has a wealth of young starting pitchers that would intrigue the Cardinals, which is where I think this deal would eventually go. The two names that come to mind for me are Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera. Luzardo is in year one of arbitration and does not hit free agency until 2027, while Cabrera isn't expected to hit arbitration until 2026. Both arms have a lot of potential, but the Marlins could part with the opportunity to improve their lineup in multiple areas.

Here is a trade package I think could work for both sides

Cardinals get a young starter, Marlins get multiple lineup pieces

St. Louis Cardinals receive: LHP Jesus Luzardo or RHP Edward Cabrera
Miami Marlins receive: C Ivan Herrera, OF Tyler O'Neill, and OF/1B Juan Yepez

It's really had to assess the value of starting pitchers in this year's market, as well as the value of guys like Tyler O'Neill and Juan Yepez with how the Cardinals have treated them this season. Still, I think this is a helpful framework, even if there would need to be adjustments to it.

Here's where I see Miami being interested. For as much as a premium, as there is on pitching, there is also one on catchers. Look around the league, how many teams are looking to part with good catchers? They do not become available often, especially ones with as much control as Herrera. It's a gamble for Miami for sure, but the same can be said for St. Louis.

O'Neill, for as rocky as the last year has been for him, is still a guy with immense potential who has put together a top-10 MVP-caliber season. Given a change of scenery, I think it's fair to at least expect him to be a great defender with streaky offensive numbers. It's a valuable piece for any team, and he has the potential to be so much more than that. Juan Yepez still has so much of his career ahead of him, and will likely become a mainstay in some team's lineup that gives him a chance. It just seems like the Cardinals are not going to be that team.

O'Neill makes a great platoon partner with Jesus Sanchez and provides another option for their outfield that lacks depth, Yepez can fill in at first base where the Marlins have struggled production-wise, and Herrera fills their major hole at catcher. Getting three quality starters, with two having a ton of club control, is a huge win for Miami.

For St. Louis, they part with one valuable asset in Herrera, and frankly, sell low on O'Neill and Yepez in order to take a crack at improving their current and future rotation.

Luzardo is 5-5 this year with a 4.17 ERA in 77.2 innings pitched, but his 10.3 SO/9 and 3.58 FIP are very encouraging. He ranks really high in average fastball velocity, whiff percentage, walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and chase rate as well. This is the kind of pitcher the Cardinals need to gamble on and may be worth giving up even more in this deal for.

Cabrera is in a very similar spot as Luzardo, having a 5-4 record with a 4.29 ERA and 4.13 FIP while striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. His fastball velocity, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, chase rate, xBA, xSLG, and curve spin all look great this year as well.

Obviously, their ERAs are not ideal, but with each of them being age 25, it's the kind of gamble the Cardinals need to start making on pitching. The Cardinals would then have one of Cabrera or Luzardo and Libertaore on very affordable deals in their rotation next year, Mikolas making just $16 million next season and plenty of room to add an expensive arm in free agency or through trade while maintaining rotation depth.

I believe both the Cardinals and Marlins would benefit from talking similar packages, but with how thin the starting pitching market is looking to be, it may require the Cardinals to pony up more. But having such a valuable catching prospect should give them a leg up in negotiations.