The biggest red flags with each of the Cardinals' starting pitching targets

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The offseason is going to be here before we know it, and the St. Louis Cardinals are going to find themselves in the thick of the starting pitching market.

It still remains to be seen how the Cardinals will actually handle their pursuit of pitching. Depending on who you ask, some believe John Mozeliak and company will not bring in the high-end starter that this rotation needs, rather falling back on the notion that depth is more important to this team.

I stand in the camp that the front office will be looking to accomplish both things. They know they need three or so starting pitchers, but they also need one or two of those guys to be top of the rotation quality. There have already been multiple reports, both national and local, that indicate the Cardinals have significant interest in the high-end starters on the market.

There's just one problem: I'm not sure there is a "surefire", top-of-the-rotation option available for them.

When you look at each of the starting pitchers available in free agency, and some rumored trade candidates, you don't have to stare long at them to see potential red flags pop up. Whether it's a regression in performance, health, risky underlying numbers, or something else, Cardinals' fans will be crossing their fingers about something with each of them.

Let's look at the red flags associated with each of the high-end starters the Cardinals could target this offseason

Aaron Nola: Will he regain his ace form?

Aaron Nola is the name that has been most commonly linked to the Cardinals, and for good reason. Even before the season began, Nola just felt like a future Cardinal based on his mentality as a pitcher.

Throughout his career, Nola has been a guy who can post a sub-3.60 ERA while pitching 200+ innings and striking out about 10 batters per 9 innings. Was he one of the five best starters in baseball? No. But any given year he could be among the Cy Young candidates and lead a playoff rotation.

This year has been a major step back for Nola, so much so that it's time to be very concerned about his future as a top-end starter.

Nola now has a 4.62 ERA on the season in 181 innings of work, and after a bit of a rebound during the month of August, he's posted an 8.56 ERA in September in his three starts. Not good. His strikeout numbers are down, WHIP is up, and he's allowing a lot of home run balls.

At just 30 years old, there's reason to believe he's having a weird year and can bounce back from it in 2024, but if he's really going to command a long-term deal at $25-$30 million per year, that's really risky.

Blake Snell: Walks and inconsistency year to year

Blake Snell has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, with his 7 innings of no-hit baseball against the Colorado Rockies being the cherry on top of a potential Cy Young winning season. He leads all of baseball with a 2.33 ERA on the season, and will likely eclipse 180 innings of work.

The problems with Snell centering around how he goes about navigating a lineup, and whether or not he can be this good on a consistent basis.

In 2018, Snell broke out with a 1.89 ERA in 180.2 innings for the Rays, easily winning the Cy Young Award and breaking out as one of the best pitchers in the game. From 2019-2022 though, his ERA ballooned to 3.85 and he never eclipsed 128.2 innings in a season. Maybe this is the year he has found his grove again and doesn't look back, but history says this is more of an outlier season than reality.

Snell's stuff is so good though, so it's not hard to imagine him being really good again in 2024 and beyond. The scare here is about how he would age if that stuff began to fall off. His underlying numbers are scary.

This year, he's 5 batters per 9 innings, something that he can get away with because of his strikeout numbers. If his strikeouts begin to waver, the free passes will be a huge problem.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Price

What's there not to like about Yoshinobu Yamamoto? He just turned 25 years old, has been dominating in Japan since he was 18, and is posting a 1.26 ERA with 155 SO in 157 innings of work in 2023. He's young, durable, and putting up about as good numbers as possible. So what's the problem here?

Forbes.com just called Yamamoto "MLB's Next Big Bidding War", something I'm not sure the Cardinals will want to find themselves in. Players coming across from Japan seem to have a better success rate lately than they have in the past, but there is still risk involved with seeing how he could look at the Major League level.

If there is one "flag" to point to beyond his contract, it's that there seems to be disagreement among talent evaluators in baseball about what his ceiling is. Some see him as a true number one for a playoff rotation, while others see Yamamoto as a number two at best.

Do I think the Cardinals should be in the Yamamoto sweepstakes? For sure. There's risk with every pitcher available, but Yamamoto's performance at such a young age feels like a can't-miss opportunity for St. Louis.

Still, virtually every team is going to want to bring in Yamamoto this offseason, so outbidding clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, and more will be a tall task. Let's hope the Cardinals are up to it.

Dylan Cease: Giving up too many valuable assets

While it's not a guarantee that Dylan Cease will be traded this offseason, it makes a lot of sense.

The White Sox are a mess right now and need to hit the reset button. Cease is their most valuable asset outside of Luis Robert, and capitalizing on his value would be wise for their rebuild.

I'm pretty concerned about his performance on the field this year, as a 4.85 ERA is not what you think of as an "ace" for your rotation. Cease is coming off a second-place Cy Young finish though, and has the stuff to get back to being "the guy" again. I also could see how the White Sox's situation season may have impacted his performance.

What would concern me most though is the price the White Sox may place on Cease. I doubt they would trade him without getting one of Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar in return, and honestly, it could take two of them or one of them plus a Tommy Edman type and other pieces. That's a huge price to pay for someone who's had this down of a year.

If the White Sox's asking price is lower than that, I think things get really interesting. But if it's going to take a haul to get Cease, that's a big risk to take.

Sonny Gray: Has he peaked as a starter?

Sonny Gray is my favorite option from this free agent class. I think he is criminally underrated around baseball, and he will easily be the best value among the top-end starters on the free-agent market.

In 30 starts, Gray has a 2.84 ERA while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. For his career, Gray has a 3.48 ERA and is typically good for at least 180 innings for your club.

Although I'd prefer to have a rotation where Gray is my number two (which means it's very, very strong), I wouldn't even mind Gray being the ace of my staff. He's been that good this year. His price point will be significantly lower than Nola, Snell, and Yamamoto as well.

The biggest question mark with Gray is whether or not this is his peak as a pitcher. He'll be 34 by the end of 2023, so it's fair to wonder if he'll age well over the course of his deal. I'd imagine he'd only get two or three years on his contract anyway, but it's still a fair question to ask.

Even if Gray isn't the pitcher he is this year and is closer to his career average of 3.48, I'd take that if I am St. Louis. There is no one on the starting pitching market who will guarantee me better results than that, so I wouldn't let the idea of some regression scare me off from Gray, especially with him likely taking less money and fewer years to sign.

Tyler Glasnow: Injury history

Tyler Glasnow is another guy who I have beat the drum on for a long time, and I'm not sure will actually be available this offseason. But based on how the Rays do their business, I think it's very likely.

Glasnow was signed to a two-year extension before the season, making $5 million this year and $25 million in 2024. If the Rays were to keep him on their books next season, he'd likely account for close to 33% of their salary commitments. That is a huge investment for a guy who has an injury history and a club that has to be frugal with how it spends its money.

My guess is the Rays will cash in on his value, get assets in return, and use that extra salary space to improve the club elsewhere. Should they choose to do so, the Cardinals are the perfect team to take on Glasnow and the risk associated with him.

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When Glasnow is healthy, he has some of the best stuff in the game. He started this season on the IL but has since made 19 starts to the tune of a 3.53 ERA while striking out 12 batters per 9 innings.

While someone like Cease or Logan Gilbert will require multiple high-level assets to acquire, Glasnow's injury history, large salary for 2024, and ability to hit free agency after the season will drop his value significantly.

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