3 tiers of starting pitchers the St. Louis Cardinals can target this offseason

Tier 1: Ace-level starting pitching

Free agents: Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Trade: Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow

Unlikely: Julio Urias, Logan Gilbert, and Shohei Ohtani

If the Cardinals had to prioritize one this offseason, it's gotta be getting an ace-level starter. If they strike out on this market, it's really hard to imagine them having a strong offseason in general.

Here's something I found really interesting the more I started digging. Assuming Shohei Ohtani goes to the Dodgers, I kind of doubt they sign any of these guys (outside of maybe Julio Urias). The Mets seem unlikely as well outside of a run at Yamamoto since their eyes are on 2025 or 2026 to compete. The Astros, Braves, and Rays typically don't spend huge money in free agency, and the Yankees and Rangers can't really afford another top-end starter on a mega deal.

So who are the teams the Cardinals will have to compete with to get someone like Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto? It's likely some combination of the Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Giants, Angels, and the Orioles.

Why is this important? Well, most offseasons, the Cardinals would need to hope that a team like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, or Rangers don't just come in and offer insane amounts of money that no one else can outbid. I'm not saying the teams who I identified won't do something like that, but I think it's a lot easier to compete with that list for free agents than it is with the big dogs. Of that list I just identified, only the Orioles have less salary already commited to their 2024 roster than the Cardinals.

This leads me to believe that the Cardinals should be one of the front-runners for each of the free agents on this list. If I had to bet now, I actually really like the Cardinals' chances of getting Aaron Nola to come to St. Louis, and I really like the fit for what St. Louis needs. Snell and Yamamoto would also be excellent fits for what the Cardinals need at the top of their rotation.

Even if they strike out in getting Nola, Snell, or Yamamoto, I think they are among the front runners for Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow as well. Cease would require a haul in return, with likely one of Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan as the headliner and then 2-3 other valuable pieces as well...and even then that may not get it done. Glasnow comes with a huge injury risk, but since he makes $25 million next year as well, I think he would not require nearly as much talent in return.

Logan Gilbert feels extremely unlikely to me, as he would likely cost even more than Cease on the market, believe it or not. The Mariners also seem highly unlikely to move him anyways. Julio Urias comes with off-the-field baggage that I just do not see the Cardinals being interested in. And as much as we'd love to see Shohei Ohtani in St. Louis, I'd put the chances of that happening at virtually zero.

Tier 2: Number two starter, high-end number three starter, or a high-upside young arm

Free agents: Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, and Eduardo Rodriguez

Trade: Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Trevor Rogers

Unlikely: Marcus Stroman, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller

CHOO CHOO.
What's that? It's the sound of the Sonny Gray hype train, and I'd like a front-row seat on this one.

Not only does Sonny Gray *scream* St. Louis Cardinal, I think he's my favorite fit for them from any of these tiers. Gray is one of the more underrated pitchers in today's game and would bring the combination of run prevention and strikeout stuff that the Cardinals need from their number-two starter next year.

This year, Gray has a 3.04 ERA in 136.1 innings for the Minnesota Twins, and his FIP is even better at 2.78. He's had only a few down years in his entire career, as over the course of his 11-year career, his ERA sits at 3.52. This year, he is striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings and is one of those pitchers who has a bulldog mentality on the mound.

Off the field, Gray talked about at the All-Star Game this year that he's already begun to have thoughts about retiring from baseball, desiring to be closer to home (Nashville, TN) so he can spend more time with his family. Gray still made it sound very unlikely that he'd retire, but it's clear that proximity to home will play a major factor in where he chooses to play baseball next year.

The only two teams in baseball that are closer to Nashville than the Cardinals are the Reds and the Braves. I could see both teams making a run at Gray, but I strongly believe the Cardinals should be at the front of that bidding war. My guess is he gets somewhere around 3 years, $60 million in free agency.

Outside of Gray, a reunion with Montgomery or someone like Giolito would make a lot of sense for St. Louis. Neither guy would cost them a compensation pick, but they likely require more years, and dollars per year, than Gray would for St. Louis. Eduardo Rodriguez is in the same class as those two but would likely cost them a compensation pick. If the Cardinals do sign Nola or Snell, it will be interesting to see if they stray away from a guy in this range with a qualifying offer attached since they'd already be losing a draft pick with that first signing.

The tier two trade candidates are interesting to me, as I don't really see any of those guys as number two starters right now (maybe number threes) but they likely cost more in terms of trade value because of their age, upside, and that they are cost controlled. All of them come from the Marlins, as the Cardinals have natural trade candidates (Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Ivan Herrera) that could interest them.

The other interesting thing about this group of trade candidates is that St. Louis could end up signing a player from tier 2 and trading for one of those guys as well to fill that "third starter" target. With the number of young position players the Cardinals have, they are bound to use a few of them to get a cost-controlled starter of some stature.

In the unlikely category, the Cardinals seemed uninterested in Marcus Stroman last time he was a free agent, and any time I hear someone report about him and the Cardinals, they seem to agree that it is not a fit. Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller also seem unlikely to be dealt, as it appears the Mariners will look to upgrade their offense through free agency rather than having to deal from their pitching depth.

Tier 3: Back-of-the-rotation starters or pitchers looking for "prove-it" deals

Free agents: Shota Imanaga, Michael Lorenzen, James Paxton, Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas, and Luis Severino

Trade: Jose Quintana, Jeffrey Springs, Clarke Schmidt, and Paul Blackburn

Unlikely: Jack Flaherty

So the Cardinals have added their ace to headline their rotation. They signed a number two/three starter or traded for a young pitcher with upside. Now what is left to do is grab the third starting pitcher that they wish to add to their rotation, who should slot in either as their number four or five starter next season.

On the free agent market, Shota Imanaga is a left-handed starter from Japan who many speculate could be posted this coming offseason. He'll cost far less than Yamamoto, probably looking at somewhere between a $12 million and $16 million AAV over 3-5 years. The Cardinals have already scouted Imanaga, and he would be a high-upside fit for the back of their rotation,

Michael Lorenzen is probably somewhere between a tier 2 and tier 3 guy for me, but I put him in this category as I think he goes for below the market value of the tier 2 guys, functioning as a low-end three or high-end number four starter.

James Paxton and Kenta Maeda are both guys who have strikeout stuff, are in their mid-30s, and have been a bit inconsistent in both performance and health over the course of their careers. Both could pitch up from their role as a number four or five starter or could miss significant time with injuries. But if you want any kind of upside from a player on the low-end deals that they'll be getting, you're going to inherit that kind of risk.

Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are interesting arms as they would likely seek one-year deals with a decent AAV, hoping to recoup their value as middle-of-the-rotiation or better starters and get larger deals the following offseason. If their markets do not develop, they could be intriguing buy-low candidates for St. Louis. I doubt Flaherty comes to St. Louis as the deal he gets in free agency will likely be more than they are willing to pay.

On the trade market, a Jose Quintana reunion has caught steam amongst people who are speculating about the Cardinals' pitching targets, as he would not cost much in terms of prospect capital and the Mets may even be willing to eat some money on his deal to make him even more affordable. Jeffrey Springs would be coming off a season-ending injury for the Rays and may not be back until a month or so into the 2024 season, but he can pitch like a number two starter when he is right and healthy. He is locked into a multi-year deal though which leads me to believe he may not cost a ton.

Clarke Schmidt seems like a natural fit for the Yankees if they reengage on Dylan Carlson or Tyler O'Neill trade talks this offseason. He's a number four starter at best for you but will come at a low salary and room to develop still. Paul Blackburn is another guy who projects to be at the back end of the rotation on a cost-controlled deal.

The Cardinals have publically stated their goal to get three starters this offseason. As long as they get a guy from each of these tiers, the numerical goal will meet the quality needed to get back into contention in 2024.

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