St. Louis Cardinals' top 7 offseason trade candidates

The St. Louis Cardinals have a lot of work to do this offseason. Player acquisitions will surely occur through free agency. Trades are inevitable as well in order to fill in missing pieces in the rotation and bullpen.

A player's value is mostly determined by his performance at the plate and in the field. Team control is another big factor. Therefore, younger players who are still in arbitration carry more trade value. They are cheap, the team is able to work with them for a longer time, and they are younger, which typically means fewer health concerns.

Before the Trade Deadline, I ranked some of the Cardinals' most valuable trade pieces. Some of those players were dealt, but many still remain with the team. Before the offseason, it is important to evaluate the players who could be traded this offseason.

7. Tyler O'Neill

In my piece from July, I also stated that Tyler O'Neill was the player with the least value on the open market. His injury history, potential clubhouse issues, and underperformance in recent years have sapped a potential player return.

Tyler has been unable to return to his once-MVP form from 2021. He finished 2023 with a .231/.312/.403 slash line and an OPS+ of 93. O'Neill's best month last year was July where he hit .324/.441/.880 and had a BABIP of .423 in 41 plate appearances. He then settled back down from August on.

O'Neill is still a strong defender in the corner outfield, but his ability to mash the way he did in years past seems to have faded. His strikeout percentage (26.9% in 2022 and 25.2% in 2023) has gone down recently, and his walk percentage has increased lately; however, he has lost a significant amount of power, as his average exit velocity has dropped from 93 mph in 2021 to just 89.2 mph in 2023.

It is possible O'Neill recoups some trade value in the first half of the season, but his current value isn't very high on the trade market.

6. Matthew Liberatore

The Cardinals traded for Matthew Liberatore in January of 2020 in possibly one of the worst trades in recent memory for John Mozeliak. Liberatore, a former first-round pick in 2018, was a left-handed pitcher with a wicked curveball and strong strikeout numbers. He advanced through the minor leagues quickly and made brief appearances with the Cardinals in 2022.

The 23-year-old southpaw has pitched 96 innings at the major league level to the tune of a 5.51 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.567 WHIP, and he has struck out a total of 74 batters. His career 17% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate are both significantly worse than league average, and his once-dominant curveball has a negative run value according to Baseball Savant (-5 in 2023 and -1 in 2022).

Perhaps the most redeeming aspect of LIberatore's trade value would be his age and team control. He'll be 24 for the entire 2024 season, and he has 6 years of control left with three years at the league minimum dollar figure. Libby is a former top prospect, and he is still young. A team may be interested in trading for him now so they can continue to correct what's been going wrong with him.

Liberatore isn't the least valuable Cardinal, but his major league performance thus far has definitely lowered his value overall.

5. Dylan Carlson

In my trade deadline piece from the summer, I stated that Dylan Carlson was the most valuable Cardinal on the market. He is a young, controllable player who can hold his own in center field and has shown an ability, especially in the minors, to hit the ball well, particularly against left-handed pitchers. Carlson was a five-tool player who had the potential to hit well and play center field for the foreseeable future.

The story since his call-up in 2020 paints a different picture. 2020 was a strange year, especially for a rookie adjusting to the highest level of baseball. In 2021, he was able to maintain his rookie status and he finished the year as the fifth Rookie of the Year choice. He finished the year with a .266/.343/.437 slash line for an OPS+ of 115. Defensively that year, Carlson accumulated +3 Outs Above Average on the season. His five-tool potential was starting to show as a rookie.

Injuries then started hampering his ability to remain on the field in 2022 and 2023. He played in 128 and 79 games, respectively, in those years, and his OPS+ dropped to 99 in 2022 and 79 in 2023. He maintained his strong defense and even began showing great strides in center field, but his offense sputtered tremendously.

Carlson isn't a free agent until 2027, so he has three years of team control remaining. He is an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team, and he could bring back a buy-low starting pitcher in exchange. His value isn't what it once was, but his defense and offensive potential could be enticing to a team in search of outfield help.

4. Ivan Herrera

I'm torn on Ivan Herrera. He is a legitimate starting catcher in the majors, and he has nothing left to prove in the minors. The issue with Herrera is the fact that he is blocked by two players currently on the major league roster. Willson Contreras seems to have another shot at being the team's starting catcher in 2024, and Andrew Knizner proved himself to be a serviceable backup catcher last year.

Herrera has done nothing but hit in the minors; he has a career .280/.391/.432 slash line across 6 seasons in the minor leagues. He has a strikeout rate of 22.5% to go along with a walk rate of 13.5%, both fine percentages. Herrera really took off in AAA Memphis in 2023, slashing .297/.451/.500 and hitting 10 home runs in 375 plate appearances.

Herrera is primarily known as a bat-first catcher, but he has made great strides recently behind the plate, particularly in his blocking abilities. He has a 50-grade arm and a 50-grade field according to MLB.com. Should Yadier Molina join the Cardinals' coaching staff in 2024, Herrera could show even more growth under his tutelage.

He has not exceeded his rookie status, so he has six years of team control remaining. Catcher is a hard position to fill, so Herrera's value is very high in 2024. I would love to see what Ivan Herrera can do at the major league level, but the two catchers ahead of him seem entrenched.

2. Brendan Donovan

The #1 and #2 players on this list are virtually interchangeable in my mind. It all depends on what you prefer in your second baseman. Brendan Donovan provides strong offense with decent defense. He is primarily known for getting on base, but this past season he showed an ability to hit for power. While his on-base percentage dropped (.394 in 2022 to .365 in 2023), his slugging (.379 to .422) and home run totals (5 to 11) both took substantial jumps.

Donovan's value is increased even more due to his defensive versatility. He isn't elite at any one position, but he is capable at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield spots. Donovan even won the first-ever Utility Gold Glove Award in 2022. Donovan isn't the fastest player (42nd percentile in sprint speed), but he isn't a slouch in that regard either.

Brendan Donovan has four more years of team control, and he is only 26 years old. He is in the prime of his career, he has shown an ability to both get on base and hit for power, and he is able to play 6 positions well. Brendan Donovan is a top trade candidate that the Cardinals have to offer. He would easily bring back a top-of-the-rotation pitcher by himself. He ended the 2023 season with an injury, but he is expected to be back to full health by the time Spring Training rolls around.

Donovan feels like one of those players who could thrive in another city. Cardinals fans would understandably miss him, but hopefully, Mozeliak will be able to get a strong return should Donovan be traded this offseason.

1. Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman is one of the best power-hitting second basemen in the league. He just turned 22, and he has already shown growth in many facets of his game. The former third baseman made the transition to second base a few years ago when the Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado. He had some initial hiccups, but he has already made great strides on the defensive side of the game.

Gorman's bat has always been highly touted. His slugging potential was off the charts in the minors, and he was no slouch at getting on base either. He has a career .232/.317/.454 slash line, but his 2023 numbers are even better at .236/.328/.478 for an OPS+ of 117. He mashed 27 home runs in 464 plate appearances, and he has true potential to hit 35 home runs a season. At just 22 years old, Gorman has plenty of time to continue to adapt to major league pitching.

Perhaps Gorman's greatest improvement in 2023 was on the defensive side. In just his third season playing second base, Gorman was able to improve his Outs Above Average from -12 to -2. That is a massive improvement, and Jose Oquendo has been vital for Gorman's growth up the middle. Should Gorman continue to make improvements at swinging at high fastballs, he is a middle-of-the-lineup bat that has star potential. Gorman is the Cardinals' second baseman of the future.

Nolan Gorman isn't a free agent until after the 2028 season. He is showing the ability to improve year-by-year on both sides of the ball. Gorman is the most valuable Cardinal player on the trade market this offseason. I think the Cardinals should extend him, but if they decide to trade him, they will easily get an ace pitcher in return.