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St. Louis Cardinals Spring Breakout Game #1 Recap
On Friday, the Cardinals faced off against the Marlins in the first of two Spring Breakout games they will play this spring. The Spring Breakout series is a new prospect showcase in Spring Training, where MLB teams go head-to-head with their top prospects. The Cardinals lost to the Marlins 3-2, but there were 4 prospect performances I'd like to highlight from the game.
1. RHP Tink Hence
Tink Hence has looked remarkable so far this spring. Entering his Spring Breakout start, he pitched four shutout innings with six strikeouts across two games in MLB Spring Training. Hence started the Cardinals' inaugural Spring Breakout game and pitched two scoreless innings. He struck out three and induced five swings and misses on eleven swings.
A couple of things stood out to me when comparing his pitch data from this game to last year. First, he had more run on his fastball. Dating back to 2022, Hence relied on a ride-run heater, but he cut close to 5 inches of arm-side run from the pitch last year. Hence threw a couple of fastballs that profiled like his heater from 2023, but most had 2022 levels of ride and run. These could very well be two distinct fastballs, but Baseball Savant classified them all as four-seam fastballs. Another thing that caught my eye was Hence's slider.
Last year, he averaged around 7-8 inches of the sweep, but on Friday, it was a more gyro-heavy pitch with only 1.7 inches of the sweep. The velocity on the pitch was also harder, sitting at 86-87 mph, a couple of mph higher than last year when he averaged 84.
2. RHP Tekoah Roby
Prior to his appearance in the Spring Breakout game, Roby pitched in one Spring Training game. At the start of spring, he was sidelined with what was described as back tightness. Roby is completely healthy now and recorded the highest pitching velocity at the Spring Breakout game with a 98 mph pitch. While Roby's fastball and curveball get most of the spotlight, I'd like to shift gears and talk about his slider and changeup.
Roby is throwing his gyro-slider and changeup significantly harder than he did last year. If you combine his pitch data from his Spring Training and Spring Breakout games, Roby is averaging 88.7 mph on his slider, which is approximately four mph harder than it averaged last year. Roby's changeup is also way faster increasing from 81 mph in 2023 to 85.8 mph in his two games this spring.
Following his first Spring Training game, I asked Roby if he had worked on this in the offseason, and here's his answer:
[It's] something I worked on over the offseason. Just a byproduct of throwing everything with conviction and confidence
Roby's slider and changeup profile much better with this uptick in velocity, as it will make it more challenging for hitters to distinguish those pitches from his fastball. Last year his changeup was very loopy, and I saw it as a fringe-average offering. With the increase in velocity, while not sacrificing any movement, I see it as a potential above-average pitch now. Tekoah Roby has the most complete arsenal in the Cardinals system right now with four potential above-average offerings.
3. OF Chase Davis
I was eager to see the Cardinals' 2023 1st-round pick Chase Davis play on Friday, as we had yet to see him this spring. Davis recorded a bloop single in the Spring Breakout game and displayed a brand-new batting stance. His stance had a lot of moving parts in the past, but he has refined that for the 2024 season. Davis used to waggle his bat before his load-up, but now he simply rests it on his shoulder. Additionally, his legs are much closer to each other, whereas he's always had a wide stance in the past. Davis has also cut down on his exaggerated leg kick from last year. All these changes help to simplify his swing process at the dish.
Davis had an underwhelming pro-debut last year and struggled to translate the thunderous power he displayed for the University of Arizona. In 131 plate appearances for Palm Beach, Davis had a .058 ISO and failed to barrel a single batted ball in statcast-tracked games. His swing decisions and contact rates were solid, but the quality of contact took a major hit. Entering the 2023 draft, there were questions about how Davis' bat would translate in a wood-bat environment. In 66 plate appearances at the Cape Cod League in 2022, Davis had an ISO of just .038. I hope the swing change can lead to more consistent hard contact and improved barrel accuracy.
4. OF Zach Levenson
Zach Levenson had a tremendous start to his pro career last year, hitting six home runs in 34 games for Palm Beach while producing a 114 wRC+. I mentioned him as a potential 2024 breakout candidate on the Noot News Podcast. Levenson possesses some of the best game power in the system and displayed that in the Spring Breakout, slugging the Cardinals' lone home run. His home run only left the bat at 97 mph, but he got it out to his pull side something he has outstanding feel of. Levenson's ability to pull fly balls and consistently hit the barrel of the bat helps to maximize his power.
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