St. Louis Cardinals MiLB Recap (4/5-4/7)

The Minor League Baseball season kicked off Friday for three St. Louis Cardinals affiliates (Palm Bach, Peoria, and Springfield). Several players stood out to me from this opening weekend, including two starters for the Palm Beach Cardinals with intriguing stuff.

RHP Tink Hence (Double-A - Springfield Cardinals)

Tink Hence was outstanding in his season debut for the Springfield Cardinals. Hence pitched five hitless innings, struck out three, and walked one. Despite the low strikeout total, he induced nine swings-and-misses (28.1% whiff rate), most of which came via his fastball. Hence's fastball averaged 95.6 mph over the entire start, but in his final inning it was down to 93.7 mph. He had tremendous control of the pitch, zoning it 65.8% of the time, and also did a great job keeping it out of the heart of the plate.

In my Spring Breakout recap, I mentioned that Hence revamped his slider from an 83 mph sweepy one to a more gyro-heavy pitching sitting 86-87 mph. In his first start of the season, we saw the latter. He controlled the pitch well but hung a couple that were subsequently hit for lineouts. Tink Hence's best secondary offering is his changeup, but he had trouble landing it for a strike last year. On Friday, he zoned the pitch 58% of the time and got a pair of groundball outs on it. Hence also threw five curveballs, but much like last year, it's his clear 4th pitch. It's tough to have a better start to a season than Hence just did, and I'm eager to see if the command and control can stick through the season.

RHP Edwin Nunez (Double-A - Springfield Cardinals)

Edwin Nunez made his season debut on Sunday, pitching three innings of one-run ball. Nunez has pitched out of relief most of his professional career and enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2023. His walk rate improved from 18.4% in his first two seasons to 10.8% in 2023. Nunez, specifically, was far better at locating his fastball in the strike zone. I ranked Nunez as the Cardinals' 23rd-best prospect, and in my write-up of him, I mentioned that I envision him as a long-term relief pitcher. Despite drastically improving his walk rate, Nunez has poor control of his secondary pitches and struggles to repeat his delivery. Regardless, I'm glad the Cardinals are giving a high-upside, athletic pitcher like him a shot to stick as a starter. 

Nunez threw his fastball 64% of the time, averaging 97 mph and topping out at 99 mph twice. He controlled the pitch well, landing it for a strike 69% of the time. He generated a healthy 29.4% whiff rate on his heater but failed to record a whiff on any other pitch. Nunez's most used secondary offering was his changeup, which sat 87-88 mph. I think it can be an effective offering if he can find more feel for it in the strike zone. He also threw his high-spin, low-80s slurve four times (9%), one of which got drilled 106 mph by Tyler Locklear for a single.

Nunez gave up a healthy amount of loud aerial contact in his start. He allowed eight hard-hit (95 mph EV) batted ball events, and six also hit the sweet spot (8-32 degree launch angle). While it wasn't an elite performance by any means, I was encouraged by Nunez's first start overall and am looking forward to watching him grow as a starting pitching prospect.

OF Chase Davis (Single-A - Palm Beach Cardinals)

In my Spring Breakout recap article, I discussed Chase Davis completely revamping his swing, but he has returned to his old swing to start the season. This makes me extremely happy because the swing is way more aesthetically pleasing, and we have seen Davis succeed with it, albeit at the collegiate level. Davis really struggled in his pro debut, primarily because he was not generating any power. He had an ISO of just .058 despite being one of the top power-hitting collegiate players in 2023. He failed to record a single home run in 131 plate appearances for Palm Beach after hitting 21 for the University of Arizona earlier that year.

While Davis is still searching for his first professional home run, I was impressed with him this past weekend nonetheless. Davis recorded a new max exit velocity on Saturday, crushing a 110.2 mph double. He pulled it to right field with an optimal launch angle as well, at 17 degrees. This was Chase Davis's first-ever barrel in Statcast-tracked games. Davis is showing great swing decisions, already walking four times, and the contact quality looks much improved. He has already topped his 2023 max exit velocity twice and has three sweet spot BBE, all at or above 84.9 mph. There isn't a prospect I'm more excited to follow this year than Chase Davis.

LHP Quinn Mathews (Single-A - Palm Beach Cardinals)

The Cardinals drafted Mathews in the 4th round last year out of Stanford. You might know him as the funky left-hand pitcher who threw a 156-pitch complete game in the 2023 NCAA Super Regionals. Mathews got the nod for Palm Beach on Opening Day, and I was really impressed by his stuff, particularly his fastballs. Mathews pitched 3 1/3 innings, allowed two runs, walked five, and struck out six.

Between his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, Mathews generated 11 whiffs on 17 swings (64.7% whiff rate). Mathews gets above-average ride on both of his fastballs from a low slot, and they have about a 5" difference in run. He averaged 94 mph on his heater, up from 91.5 mph last year for Stanford. We are working with a one-start sample, but a 2.5 mph gain is significant and noteworthy. Given the movement profiles and release height, if his heater can sit in the 94 mph range, it's going to be above average.

Mathews' secondary pitches are mediocre from a stuff perspective. His changeup was touted as his best pitch coming out of the draft, but it was the least-used pitch in his debut, as he only threw it 7% of the time. It's a very loopy changeup at 79 mph, which I don't love. Mathews' slider is probably his best secondary. It averages 83.8 mph with five inches of sweep and one inch of induced vertical break. Mathews also has a curveball that he sparingly uses. His secondary pitches certainly could use improvement, but he already has some of the best fastball shape in the organization. I expect Mathews to be a big riser in 2024 if the velocity can keep up.