St. Louis Cardinals: 3 reasons why Matthew Liberatore needs to be called up

Reason #1: Across the board, his advanced metrics in 2023 are much improved

Despite a relatively small sample size (33 2/3 innings pitched), Matthew Liberatore is putting up some of the best numbers of his entire career. Check out some areas where the southpaw has seen improvement this year (please note that Liberatore pitched 34.2 innings in St. Louis last year and 115.0 innings in Memphis):

• K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched): The highest of his career at 12.03. This is a significant increase from last year. In Memphis, in 2022 Liberatore had a 9.08 K/9 and in St. Louis, he had just a 7.27 K/9. For reference, the two current Cardinals starting pitchers with the highest K/9 are Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty who are tied at 9.3.
• BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings pitched): The second lowest of his career at 3.21. This is a 31.23% decrease from last year in his time pitching in St. Louis. The Cardinals' Achilles heel the past couple of years has been walking batters and Liberatore has shown improved command and discipline of the strike zone.
• FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Check out Week 2 of my Redbird Roundup for a deeper dive into why FIP is one of the best benchmarks for pitchers. A pitcher's FIP tells us how well they perform on outcomes that they have control over (Home Runs, Hit-by-pitches, Unintentional Walks, and Strikeouts). Liberatore currently owns a 2.69 FIP (2.96 xFIP) which is far and away the best of his entire career. Last year in Memphis he had a 4.63 FIP and in St. Louis, he had a 5.02 FIP.

We can guess that Oli Marmol, John Mozeliak, and other decision-makers in St. Louis are aware of Liberatore's improvement in these key categories. The big question: when he is called back up to St. Louis will these metrics translate against Big League hitters in Big League parks?

Reason #2: His Velocity is up

Dating back to Spring Training, Cardinals Manager Oli Marmol has applauded the strides that Liberatore has made:

In the 2022 season, Liberatore averaged 93.7 MPH on his 4-seam Fastball and 92.8 MPH on his Sinker. On Saturday night for AAA Memphis, Liberatore's average 4-seam velocity was 94.4 MPH and his average Sinker velocity was 94.7 MPH. He has consistently hovered around the 94-95 MPH range while throwing some as high as 98 MPH.

Velocity alone is not the sole determinant of a pitcher's success. But his increased velocity supplemented with an already nasty off-speed arsenal sets him up well for Big League success. Time will tell if Liberatore can locate his fastball at the Major League level and not leave it up in the zone for hitters to mash.

Reason #3: The St. Louis Cardinals have to see what they have in Matthew Liberatore

This does not mean "rush Matthew Liberatore". I think that ship has sailed. Liberatore is 23 years old and the Cardinals have taken a fairly conservative approach to his development since acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2020. Aside from coming in as a stopgap, Liberatore has not truly been trusted with an extended stay in St. Louis.

There is a real chance that Matthew Liberatore has a long and productive career ahead of him. It's also a fact that the other part of that trade (Randy Arozarena) has done nothing but produce for Tampa Bay both in the regular season and in October. Now, the Cardinals shouldn't alter their development for Liberatore just because of how Randy has played. Take this as a reminder of what the Cardinals gave up to get Liberatore.

Right now presents a great time for the St. Louis Cardinals to put faith in Matthew Liberatore. He got extended looks in Spring Training thanks to the World Baseball Classic. He has started the year very well in Memphis. And oh yeah, the Cardinals are in desperate need of consistency and stability in their starting rotation. All signs point to Liberatore getting his shot soon, and I hope he is in St. Louis to stay.