Should the Cardinals plan on having Andre Pallante in their rotation in 2025?

Coming into Spring Training, the St. Louis Cardinals were banking on their five-man group of Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Steven Matz to lead their rotation this season. As injuries occurred, Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore were seen as the "next men up" for St. Louis. But as the season has gone on, right-hander Andre Pallante has leap-frogged many of the names on that list, becoming the most stable arm in their rotation in the process.

Pallante began in the Cardinals' bullpen this season but was demoted after April 20th to stretch out as a starter, per Pallante's wishes. After a little over a month in Memphis, the Cardinals brought Pallante back to St. Louis to cover some innings for the club, and he hasn't left the rotation since then.

Since entering the rotation on May 29th, Pallante leads Cardinals' starters in ERA (3.75), is second in FIP (3.76), and is third in innings pitched (69.2). Pallante's ability to limit home runs (0.65 HR/9) and induce groundballs (61.5%) play incredibly well in front of this defense, but his lack of strikeout stuff (6.98 K/9) and average walk rate (3.36 BB/9) means he needs batted ball luck to go his way. On the season, opponents' BABIP against Pallante is just .275, so there may be some regression there.

On Saturday night matched up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pallante turned in what may have been his best start of the year, allowing just two runs over seven innings of work against a tough Dodger lineup. Pallante helped end a frustrating losing skid the Cardinals were on, and it is no easy task being the "stopper" when things seem to be unraveling for your club.

Don't get me wrong, Pallante hasn't been some elite starter that has filled the Cardinals' biggest gap of needing another front-line starter, but Pallante has been more than adequate as a starter this year, and he actually now has a bit of a track record in the Major Leagues to back that up.

Since 2022, Pallante has made 23 starts for St. Louis covering 124 innings, and is sporting a 3.85 ERA and 3.87 FIP in those outings. Again, that is not flashy, but it is exactly what you'd want from a back-of-the-rotation starter, and the Cardinals do not have to pay Pallante $10 million or more per season to produce that.

I wrote recently about how the Cardinals have had a severe lack of production from internal arms in recent years. Just 37% of the starts the Cardinals have gotten from their rotatoin since 2021 have come from pre-arbitration or arbitration players. The Cardinals consistently go out and spend money on guys like Lynn, Gibson, and Matz, or trade for names like Jose Quintana, Jon Lester, and J.A. Happ in order to get the innings they need.

But what if Pallante was one of the answers to that dilemma in 2025?

Should Andre Pallante be in the Cardinals' rotation in 2025?

Let's look at the Cardinals current options for their 2025 rotation.

Sonny Gray is under contract through the 2026 season, while Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz are all in the final year of their deals in 2025. The Cardinals also have the option to bring back either or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn on $12 million team options, if they so choose.

That's six veteran starters that the Cardinals could have under contract next season. The Cardinals can pretty painlessly decline Gibson and/or Lynn's options for just $1 million per player, and there may be a market for someone like Matz if they want to trade him.

Of that group, the only "locks" to me appear to be Gray, Fedde, and Mikolas. Gibson, Lynn, and Matz could all be a part of that group or moved on from in order to save cash.

On top of Pallante, we've already seen the Cardinals give opportunites to Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Matthew Liberatore this season, to varying results. McGreevy looked excellent in his lone start this year, while Graceffo and Liberatore have been up and down in terms of performance.

I think there's a growing possibility that rising prospect Quinn Mathews could get a shot in 2025 as well. While he won't be making the Opening Day roster barring something unforeseen, the Cardinals' 2023 fourth-round pick leads all minor leaguers with 168 strikeouts while posting a 2.34 ERA in 119 innings of work. His start last night in Double-A saw him allow spin seven shut-out innings with 11 strikeouts.

So, on top of Gray, Fedde, and Mikolas for next year, the Cardinals have names like Pallante, McGreevy, Graceffo, Liberatore, and possibly Mathews at some point as well, and that's if they were to trade or decline the options on all three of Matz, Gibson, and Lynn.

Now, we all know how you can never have enough pitching, as injuries will happen to your rotation, Going into 2025 without bringing back any of those veterans would be risky business, but that also opens up the Cardinals to some creative moves as well.

Say the Cardinals move on from Matz, Gibson, and Lynn, the club would free up as much as $34 million to spend elsewhere on their roster. Now, we know the Cardinals are not a club that is going to spend all of that in one place, but they could surely look at bringing in a Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty, or someone like that who raises their ceiling and can produce more than what Gibson, Mikolas, or Lynn would have given them.

Let's say they get the hometown guy in Max Scherzer, how much better does a rotatoin of Gray, Scherzer, Fedde, Pallante, and Mikolas look than the one that features Gibson and Lynn? If injuries occur, they have some known depth in McGreevy, Graceffo, and Liberatore to turn to, and could possibly even use a Zack Thompson, Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Ian Bedell, or the aforementioned Mathews as needed.

There is the argument though that you'd much rather have six starters you can trust entering the year due to the evitable injury, and it really should work to go hunting for a "bigger" fish like those names while retaining one of Gibson, Lynn, or Matz. In that scenario, Pallante comes in as your sixth starter and would join the official rotation as soon as someone goes down.

To me, Pallante has earned a spot at the back of the Cardinals' rotation this year, but exactly what that looks like depends on a few different factors...

1. Do the Cardinals trust their other depth options? The more that they trust, the higher the more comfortable they can feel with Pallante being their fourth or fifth option (depending on how you feel about Mikolas).
2. What is payroll going to look like next year? If they can afford to retain one of Gibson, Lynn, or Matz and also go after another front-line starter, great. If not, I think it may be a risk worth taking banking on the Triple-A arms and higher upside arms like Mathews below them being able to contribute next year.

The Cardinals cannot typecast Pallante as something more than he currently is. Right now, he looks like a guy who you really enjoy having at the back of your rotation, and there is added value in that he'll be in just his first year of arbitration next year. If they try to justify his presence in the rotation as anything more than that, they are setting themselves up for failure. But in the same vein, I'd argue that St. Louis is potentially missing out on a way to upgrade this rotation if they bring back too many veteran back of the rotation starters while not trusting Pallante and the depth behind him.