Should Cardinals' manager Oli Marmol be on the hot seat?

Some nights, it’s the pitching. On other nights, the offense can’t come through. Lately, even the club’s best defenders have had costly miscues. It feels like nothing can go the St. Louis Cardinals way right now - which has a lot of people pointing to one person in particular as the “fall guy” - manager Oli Marmol.

After guiding the Cardinals to a 93-69 record and the NL Central crown in 2022, Marmol began to face some real criticism for the way he managed, especially in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Sure, there were questions that arose throughout the year about Marmol, but I can’t name one manager that doesn’t get questioned during the regular season.

So coming into the 2023 season, there were high expectations for the club. The pitching should’ve been at least marginally better than it was last year with a healthy Jack Flaherty and a full season of Jordan Montgomery. The offense, despite losing Albert Pujols, should be better with the development of younger bats and the addition of Willson Contreras. And the club’s bullpen looked to be a sneaky strength of the team.

Well, after another heartbreaking loss, the club now sits at 9-16, tied for the second-worst record in the National League this season. Even if you’re like me, and believe this club is too good to give up on, we have reached the point where excuses have run out, and all that matters is results.

The results just are good enough right now. In fact, they are horrendous.

No one in the Cardinals’ front office, coaching staff, or 26-man roster would disagree with that. They know it, we know it, but what continues to baffle everyone is how is this continuing.

Which, once again, has led many to point to Marmol.

It's the easiest scapegoat to point to in this situation, but sometimes the easiest answer is the correct answer. No matter how you feel about Marmol and his managing style, it's fair to ask the question of whether or not Marmol deserves to be on the hot seat at this point in the season. Let's break it down and try to get to the bottom of this.

The argument for and against firing your manager this early in the season

To my knowledge, at this point in the season, I have not heard anyone in the Cardinals' clubhouse or front office question Marmol's leadership. Even after the O'Neill situation, it feels like things have at least mellowed out there. There was even a shot of the two laughing together earlier this week.

If it was clear Marmol had lost the clubhouse, then I think a change would be coming soon. But he hasn't, and so I think it will take other evidence to bring Marmol to the point of losing his job. For as much as people want to say the Cardinals are reluctant to make moves, they fired Mathaney mid-season and fired Schildt after making the playoffs.

Ultimately, he will be graded by the win and loss column, and Marmol knows that. So at what point does the Cardinals' record dictate a decision like that? Well, there are arguments for both sticking with your manager and firing your manager with other contenders who got off to rocky starts.

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies began the year 22-29 and were 12 games back in the division and 5 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race. The Phillies decided to fire their manager Joe Girardi, and by the end of the season, they snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card and made it to the World Series. For as much as people may try to say "Well, look at the talent they had", nobody thought the Phillies could rebound from that start at the moment. Like the Cardinals, they looked like a team with a ton of talent but just had too many things going against them.

Like Girardi, Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo was fired that summer with a 46-42 record, and the club had a .603 winning percentage the rest of the season under bench John Schneider. The Blue Jays seemed to finally be the team they were on paper under new leadership.

But after those two examples, you have to go back to 2009 to find another in-season managerial change that led to a playoff berth. It's just not typically the answer for clubs that are struggling, especially when they have the talent to do so much more.

There are countless examples of sticking with the guy the organization believes in though. In 2021, the Atlanta Braves spent 101 days of the season below .500 and took until game 107 to finally maintain a winning record. They went on to make the playoffs and win the World Series that year, even after losing Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury. They weren't expected to do much in the postseason, but some timely trade deadline moves (which could be in store for St. Louis) made all the difference.

In 2019, the Washington Nationals were 19-31, yes, a whopping 12 games below .500, on May 24th and somehow turned their season around to win an epic World Series that year. Again, they weren't the favorites by any means, people pointed to many of their flaws, and yet, they made it work in the end.

I'll make a bold guess and say that people were calling for Brian Snitker and Dave Martinez's jobs throughout the season. And yet, they ended the year as World Series champions. I am NOT saying that I think the Cardinals are the next team to win it all after a really bad start but to write them off as even a Wild Card team already is just foolish. As of today, there are 137 games left in the season, and the Cardinals are only 5 games back of the Wild Card and 8 games back in the division. They've got their work cut out for them, but it even if it takes a few more weeks to get back fully on track, it won't take some crazy win streak like in 2021 to put them in the playoffs.

Ultimately, I don't think what is going on with the club can be pinned directly on Marmol. Yes, he has a part to play in it, but how big a role is definitely in question. But before a managerial change should really be considered, there are a few other parties that need to be looked at further.

So who is at fault for the Cardinals' terrible start?

Like most things in life, the Cardinals' start to their season isn't black and white in terms of who is at fault. But let me name some of the culprits who have at least played a role in this situation.

Ownership

Yes, at the end of the day, the Dewitts cut the checks. And many would argue it is ridiculous that the Cardinals' budget isn't significantly higher than it is today. Yes, Mozeliak still has some money he can spend on this current team, but I doubt it is north of $200 million. Right now, the Cardinals rank 16th in payroll at $159 million this year. Concerns with their bullpen and rotation would have surely been addressed this offseason if Mozeliak had more money to spend.

Front Office

I am one of the people who said I liked the Cardinals' strategy of letting the position players compete for roles this season. I still stand by that. Imagine if the Cardinals had dealt Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbaar this offseason. Instead, they stuck with their guys and saw what they had once they couldn't swing a trade, and I respect that.

But it hasn't worked, and when things don't work, there does need to be changes. I'm glad they are now allowing Jordan Walker to play every day down in Memphis, but their overall management of the outfield so far has just been puzzling at best. Yes, Marmol has a role to play in that (more on that in a second), but it's clear the allocation of assets just has not been wise this season.

Oli Marmol and his staff

Marmol and his staff need to take blame as well. In-game decisions, the handling of lineups and playing time, publicly calling out players, and just an overall mess on the field right now are at least some reflection of the leadership in the clubhouse. It doesn't mean they are bad leaders or need to be fired, but there is accountability that they need to continue to own, and they need to find a way to get this turned around.

Outside of ownership, front office, and the coaching staff, the players need to own a lot of this as well.

So who is at fault for the Cardinals' terrible start? (Cont.)

The Cardinals pitching

I mean, let's call a spade a spade here. The Cardinals' pitching has just been bad this year and it's hard to overcome that.

I've talked about how the Cardinals' pitching staff has better underlying numbers than they are giving up and that they should get back to being a middle-of-the-pack staff at some point, but who cares right now? The club needs them to be better.

Cardinals' offense with runners in scoring position

What's even more frustrating is that the pitching has improved some lately, and when the Cardinals do get quality starts or good bullpen performances, the offense can't come through. It's baffling.

This team's strength is their hitting, so they cannot keep going quiet with the team needs them most. Again, almost every major offensive stat shows this club is so much better than they are right now, but the most important stat, runs, is not showing it.

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado

I am not criticizing them as leaders, people, or even as excellent players. Goldschmidt and Arenado are MVP level players. The Cardinals are beyond lucky to have both of them. But both guys will be the first to say they need to be better.

Until last night, Goldschmidt had been struggling at the plate lately (by his standard) and just wasn't the bat they needed him to be in the order. Arenado now has a .662 OPS on the season and is a career .877 OPS guy. Both guys will turn it around, but it's obviously not helping the club right now that they haven't been performing to their ability most of the season. When both guys are on, they can help the Cardinals overcome a lot of adversity. St. Louis needs that from their superstars.

Conclusion

No, I don't think Oli Marmol should be on the hot seat right now. But honestly, I don't blame you if you think he does. This Cardinals team still had a lot of season ahead of them, but things are getting bleaker by the day. Let's hope this organization turns it around as soon as possible, whatever it takes.