Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals' 2025 starting rotation

It's never too early to think about the future. In some cases, it's actually reassuring to gaze down the road and see what might occur. For the St. Louis Cardinals, ignoring the present and hoping for the future may actually be beneficial.

The Cardinals face an uphill battle for the postseason these final three weeks. They have to jump the Atlanta Braves and one of the New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, or San Diego Padres to even make it to the playoffs. Once there, they'll draw a three-game matchup (likely on the road) against one of those teams or whichever division winner ends up with the third-best record -- probably their division rivals the Milwaukee Brewers.

Therefore, it isn't too early to look ahead to next season and see what the team might look like. With a good starting rotation, anything is possible for a team. Talented starters could go deep into games to give the bullpen some respite, and the team with a better collection of starters typically goes on to win a playoff series.

The Cardinals have forced themselves into a corner recently by signing aged veterans on one-year deals to just get by in a given season. They've also locked themselves into pricey contracts for players like Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas. These unfavorable deals will presumably limit the opportunities the front office has to improve upon this year's rotation.

With some wily moves and smooth dealing, the 2025 rotation could be vastly different than this year's collection of starters. I've broken down the rotation pieces into various categories including shoo-ins, probable candidates, players with an outside chance, and free agents.

Shoo-Ins - Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Andre Pallante

These players will absolutely be in the rotation next year due to their performances this year and the fact that they're under contract for 2025.

Sonny Gray leads this pack, as he was signed this past offseason to be the team's ace. He hasn't quite lived up to those standards, but he's been the team's most viable starter for most of the year. He has a 12-9 record to go along with a 3.84 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and a 29.9% K rate. His 12 quality starts aren't as high as one would like, but it's still a fine total. Gray's salary next year escalates to $25 million.

Erick Fedde was a part of the three-team trade involving the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox. He was one of the best-starting pitchers in baseball prior to the trade deadline, but he's hit some speed bumps with St. Louis. Since coming to St. Louis, Fedde has made seven starts with an ERA of 4.30, a FIP of 5.09, and an ERA+ of 101. He's gone five innings in six of his seven starts with the Cardinals, but he's also allowed four or more runs in three of his seven starts. Fedde is under contract for $7.5 million next year.

Andre Pallante has been the biggest surprise all year for the Cardinals. After moving from the bullpen in the majors to a starting role at Memphis, Pallante was given a chance to take the fifth starter spot on May 29th, and he hasn't looked back. As a starter, Pallante has a 6-6 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.294 WHIP. Batters are slashing just .238/.315/.345 against him, and he's struck out 65 batters in 87.1 innings. Pallante has earned his spot in next year's rotation.

Probable Candidates - Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz

Here is where we see the Cardinals cornering themselves with bad contracts. Neither Miles Mikolas nor Steven Matz have done anything these past two years to prove they're worthy of a spot in the 2025 rotation. Matz has been unable to be healthy since he signed with the Cardinals, and Mikolas has consistently taken the Cardinals out of contention in games in which he's started.

Throw in the fact that these two will make a combined $31 million next year, and you see how awful their contracts have become.

But the Cardinals are loyal to a fault. By virtue of them being veterans who are owed a boatload of cash, Matz and Mikolas will probably receive the final two rotation spots for next year. This, in theory, completes the exercise, but I have hope that the organization will be wise with both players. Steven Matz has thrived out of the bullpen these past two seasons, so using him as a long relief guy or someone who can mop up bad starts on occasion may be his best role next year. His finished 2023 with a 2.81 as a reliever, and he's already back in this role next year. He'll be a pricey reliever, but that's the result of distributing large contracts to players with an injury history.

Miles Mikolas, on the other hand, should probably be off the team this winter regardless of what it takes to move him. Mikolas, despite being in line to once again receive a full slate of starts this year, has been terrible. He has a 5.27 ERA in 153.2 innings pitched. Last year, Mikolas led the league in hits allowed and earned runs. He shouldn't be in the rotation, let alone on the team, in 2025.

Just like that, we've moved two potential starters out of the rotation. If neither of those moves happens, the rotation will be set with Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz, and Miles Mikolas. That isn't a group that will lead a team to success. Therefore, Matz needs to be moved to the bullpen, and Mikolas should be removed from the team one way or another.

Free Agents

The 2025 free-agent starting pitcher collection is a strong one. Last year's group was headlined by an injured Shohei Ohtani, two players from Japan in Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a collection of aging veterans that included Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray.

The 2025 class has significantly more upside in it. Players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell (again), Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, and Max Fried headline the free-agent pitcher group. The issue with free agency, however, is that the front office has already begun hinting that payroll will at least be frozen heading into next year, and there's a chance some cuts are even made. This limits the team's ability to add pitchers via free agency this upcoming offseason.

However, if the team is able to get creative with their financials, there are some solid mid-rotation arms that could fit in the Cardinals' budget. Fans could also get lucky and see one of those big-name starters come to St. Louis, but once again, don't get your hopes up. I think Jack Flaherty and Max Fried are two achievable candidates among the headliners, but those feel like long shots anyway.

One player who is achievable for the Cardinals is Sean Manaea. Manaea, 32, signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets this past offseason with a player option for the second year. Due to his success this year, it's been rumored that he'll exercise his opt-out and enter free agency. He has a 3.43 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 114 ERA+ in 157.1 innings (28 starts) this year. He was due for $13.5 million via his player option next year, so Manaea will be eyeing a multi-year contract worth at least $15 million annually.

Two other Mets, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, are also free agents at season's end. Severino, 30, has a 10-6 record with a 3.84 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and a 102 ERA+ in 159.1 innings. He's not striking out batters, but he's also done a fine job at limiting hits and walks. Quintana, a former Cardinal himself, has thrown 152 innings with a 4.09 ERA and a 4.89 FIP. His 96 ERA+ makes him a below-average starting pitcher.

One final candidate who would be a dark horse for the Cardinals would be Michael Wacha. Wacha and the Cardinals are quite familiar with each other, and barring a contract restructuring with the Kansas City Royals, Wacha will decline his $16-million player option and enter free agency. Wacha, 33, has been excellent for the Royals with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.83 FIP in 144 innings. His 122 ERA+ is evidence of his dominance for most of the year.

Final Rotation Options

Option 1:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Steven Matz
Miles Mikolas

This isn't my personal choice for a rotation next year, but I could absolutely see the Cardinals rolling with it. Each of these players is under contract for next year, some more than others, and this would be an easy way for ownership and management to "save" money while also fielding a marginally competitive starting staff. The ceiling is quite low for this group, and the floor is shaky at best.

Option 2:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn
Miles Mikolas

The same can be said of this group. It's expensive, it's not very strong, and it's restrictive. In this scenario, Steven Matz is in the bullpen, and one of Gibson or Lynn isn't re-signed (my preference would be Gibson staying with the team, but I'm just splitting hairs at this point). Don't expect this rotation to challenge others throughout the year.

Option 3:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Michael McGreevy/Gordon Graceffo/Quinn Mathews
Miles Mikolas

This rotation is younger and slightly more exciting! I'm assuming Gibson's and Lynn's options are declined, and Matz is moved to the bullpen here. Mikolas stays because no other team would take on his onerous contract. I'm envisioning one of those young guys separating himself during spring training and taking the final rotation spot here.

Option 4:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
*Free agent* (Flaherty/Fried/Manaea/Wacha/Severino)
Andre Pallante
Michael McGreevy/Gordon Graceffo/Quinn Mathews

This is the most preferred rotation for next year. Sonny Gray will take the top spot once again, and the second slot depends on which free agent is acquired. Someone like Max Fried or Jack Flaherty will leapfrog Fedde while a guy like Wacha, Manaea, or Severino will slot in behind Fedde. Behind those three pitchers is Andre Pallante, and a rookie will bring up the rear. This rotation has the most potential for success next year.