Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals' 2025 starting rotation

Those with an outside chance

I have a love-hate relationship with this group. On one side, you'll find more expensive veterans on expiring contracts. On the other, you'll see young guys with some true promise. Let's all hope the executives lean toward the latter group.

Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn both have team options for next year. Lynn's is worth $10 million, and Gibson is due for $12 million himself. Should the Cardinals decline these options, something they would be wise to do, they can consider it an even deal given the $15 million jump in Sonny Gray's salary next year. I fear the organization won't decline either.

Gibson has a 4.20 ERA and a 4.15 FIP in 154.1 innings, and Lynn has a 4.06 ERA and a 4.46 FIP in 106.1 innings. While these aren't bad numbers for pitchers in the bottom of a staff, the Cardinals can see similar or better production from their prospects for a fraction of their salaries.

Michael McGreevy is the most likely prospect to join the rotation next year. He made one spot start this year and threw seven innings while allowing just one run. At Triple-A Memphis this year, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.88 FIP in 145 innings. Strikeouts have never been his calling, but he's been excellent at getting groundballs and limiting damage. He would make a wonderful bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher next year.

Gordon Graceffo is another internal option. He, too, made his debut this year with the Cardinals, but the bulk of his season has also been with the Triple-A squad. He has a 4.91 ERA and a 4.87 FIP in 113.2 innings. Graceffo will be given a chance in spring to start in the majors next year, but he doesn't stand as great of a chance to hear his name called as McGreevy does.

The final internal candidate came into this season as someone who wouldn't even be considered for the Memphis rotation let alone the major league rotation in 2025. His name is Quinn Mathews. Mathews, 23, has been unhittable all year regardless of the level he's pitched at. He had a 1.47 ERA at Low-A Palm Beach, a 2.68 ERA at High-A Peoria, and a 2.41 ERA at Double-A Springfield before being called up to Memphis a couple of weeks ago. He's struggled in his two starts with Memphis so far, but the high-octane lefty has struck out hitters at a ridiculous rate across the minors. He would be an outside candidate to start the year in the rotation, but look for his name to be called once an injury arises in 2025.