Paul Goldschmidt may be earning another shot with the Cardinals in 2025

First impressions are hard to shake off. When it comes to evaluating the St. Louis Cardinals season and specific players, it is easy for our analysis to be influenced by what our original take was, rather than the evidence at hand.

Let's start with the obvious - this has not been the season that anyone wanted out of Paul Goldschmidt, and no one is going to see his overall performance as anything but disappointing when September is over. But, I'm not sure enough of us realize how much Goldschmidt has done to rebound since his horrible start to the season.

From Opening Day until that infamous Mother's Day turnaround began, Goldschmidt was slashing .190/.277/.254, good for a .530 OPS and 54 wRC+ at the time. It was brutal, and there have been stretches since then where Goldschmidt's on-field performance has been the same or worse than that.

If you look at Goldschmidt's overall numbers now though, you may be surprised to see that he has quietly worked his way back to being a league-average hitter. No one should be celebrating a 100 wRC+ from Goldschmidt or happy with a .245/.301/.414 slash line, but I do think Cardinals' fans should consider taking a step back and realizing how much better Goldschmidt has been, and for a large sample size now too.

Here is how Goldschmidt has looked over various stretches of the season since his horrible start to the season:

• Since 5/12 - .265/.311/.473 (.784 OPS), 6.0 BB%, 25.5 K%, 117 wRC+ (416 PA)
• Since 7/1 - .274/.313/.493 (.806 OPS), 5.3 BB%, 25.0 K%, 122 wRC+ (228 PA)
• .287/.339/.513 (.852 OPS), 7.2 BB%, 23.2 K%, 135 wRC+ (125 PA)

Since July and August have begun, Goldschmidt has quietly been a great hitter. Considering how many people are penciling in Luken Baker in a significant role for the Cardinals next year after just 28 plate appearances, I think it's fair to say that 125 and 228 plate appearances are pretty good sample sizes.

Even if you just go back to May 12th, Goldschmidt has been 17% above league average at the plate, and only Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbaar have been better than Goldschmidt since then. I'm not trying to convince you that Goldschmidt is back to who he was two years ago, but we now have a 414 plate appearance sample size that he's been a significant contributor for this lineup.

As someone who very recently was confident in saying that this should be Goldschmidt's last year with the Cardinals, I started to do some more digging to see how much his numbers have been inflated by his great play as of late.

Since August 24th, Goldschmidt has been slashing .438/.460/.729, good for a 1.189 OPS and 228 wRC+ during that stretch. If you took this 50-plate appearance sample size out of his numbers since May 12th, he's down to a 102 wRC+, which is about what the season-long numbers would tell you he's been.

Okay, my suspicions were confirmed a good amount - his white-hot level of play lately has inflated his numbers by a good amount - but I don't think it is fair to say Goldschmidt has only been a meaningful hitter in the last few weeks. During the first three months of the season, Goldschmidt posted a wRC+ between 80-92 depending on the month. Since July began, his wRC+ has been better and better each individual month, rising from 107 in July to 125 in August, and now an incredible 175 through the first week of baseball in September.

So, what are we supposed to make of Goldschmidt's play as of late?

That is the million-dollar question, right? Who is Paul Goldschmidt? Is he the unplayable bat that he was for large stretches of the season? Is this recent resurgence proving he can get back to the old Goldy still?

Don't act surprised, but I'll go with something in between. I don't really see Goldschmidt putting together another full season where he is 30% above league average or better and one of the best bats in the game, but could I see Goldschmidt being 10%-20% above league average next year for the Cardinals or another team? That seems like a fair expectation. We've seen guys late in their careers have resurgences offensively, so maybe I am underrating his ceiling, but I do think what Goldschmidt is showing lately is that he has more in the tank than many of us thought.

There are some concerning things in Goldschmidt's overall profile from this year that cannot be ignored, such as his terrible K%, Whiff%, and BB%, and things like bat speed, chase%, and squared-up% do not play into his favor either.

But there are still really encouraging parts of Goldschmidt's profile as well. He's near the top of baseball in hard-hit% and average exit velocity, and his xSLG and barrel% are really good as well.

For me, I really think how Goldschmidt finishes the month of September will go a long way toward how I view his future with the Cardinals. If Goldschmidt had still been terrible until the last week or so and then went on this heater, I wouldn't want him back with the club next year, but sustained success for some time now combined with this hot stretch are causing me to be open to what he could prove down the stretch.

If Goldschmidt flounders the rest of September, then I see very few scenarios where it makes sense to bring him back, but if he has a strong finish to the year, it would make a lot of sense to explore a reunion.

Of course, the contract and role he'd have would be a significant part of the conversation. If Goldschmidt is open to a reasonable one-year deal and the Cardinals won't be afraid to bench him if things go south again, I'm very open to a reunion. But if Goldschmidt wants a multi-year deal or the Cardinals would refuse to bench him in a worst-case scenario season if that were to occur again, it may be best to stay away from Goldschmidt.

I will say that I think the regression we have seen from Alec Burleson in the second half is part of why this conversation is opening back up as well. Many fans have already made up their mind that Burleson and Baker should be the platoon at first base next year, and while that could be the answer, I don't necessarily think they have done enough to earn our full confidence yet.

Burleson started the year on fire, slashing .288/.320/.494 and a 125 wRC+ in the first half, but since the All-Star Break, he's taken a huge step back, slashing .250/.309/.348, an 87 wRC+ in 181 plate appearances. If the season ended today, Burleson would have a 112 wRC+, which is still very encouraging and something he can build off of, but not quite the world-beater that he was for some time.

I'm not trying to act like Burleson's struggles are more concerning than Goldschmidt's have been by any means, but I think it at least highlights some concern regarding that production, especially since we already know Burleson is awful against left-handed pitching. That is where Baker comes in for many Cardinal fans, but he's only been able to do the damage he has done in 10 plate appearances. In his 18 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Baker is batting .077.

Again, I'm not trying to say Baker can't be that player for the Cardinals, but I think it's fair to say we need to see more before we crown him with a significant role next season.

I am very comfortable saying the Cardinals need to give Baker more appearances down the stretch and that he has at least earned a bench role with the club next year. We've seen Baker be able to produce off the bench in big spots and specifically against left-handed pitching, and that could be a valuable piece on their bench.

Something that I don't think people are taking into consideration enough is the unknowns that Burleson and especially Baker are defensively at first base. Well, Baker is someone they have not given playing time at first base yet in St. Louis, so that should at least tell you something regarding how they feel about his defense there. Burleson is mostly unproven there too. Goldschmidt, on the other hand, is someone whose defense will be sorely missed when it is gone, even if you don't notice it as much as you should right now.

Right now, I think the Cardinals need to continue to consider what Goldschmidt could bring to the table next year and monitor his performance down the stretch. There is still season left to play that could confirm his time in St. Louis is over, or it could further open up the potential for them to run it back again. Let's revisit this conversation when the season is over, but for now, Goldschmidt has at least got my attention again.