No, Mike Shildt wouldn't lead the 2024 Cardinals to more success than Oliver Marmol

The rift between Mike Shildt and the St. Louis Cardinals is great. After the team and its former manager of the year went separate ways due to "philosophical differences" following the 2021 season, bad blood thickened.

Shildt, 56, became the San Diego Padres manager this past offseason, and he's led the team to great success in his first year at the helm. Last year, the Padres scrapped by with an 82-80 record, and they missed the playoffs by a couple of games. The story for the Fathers this year is much different, as they currently hold the second wild card spot with a 69-53 record. They have a 4.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves.

Should the Padres maintain this pace, they'll finish the year with a 91-71 record, a nine-game improvement on last year. This all comes after the Padres lost Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Josh Hader over the offseason. They did acquire Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Michael King, but the talent leaving the organization was likely greater than what was brought back.

This has led to some online dialogue amongst Cardinal fans. While Mike Shildt is leading a Padres team with a lower payroll and less talent to the playoffs, Oliver Marmol's Cardinals are toiling in the murky National League Wild Card picture with more talent on the roster than he had last year.

The addition of Sonny Gray alone over the offseason made the starting rotation better, but adding depth pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson gave Marmol a more solid foundation to work with. Also, young players like Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman had another year of experience under their belts.

Oliver Marmol should have had more success this year than his predecessor would with San Diego, right?

The San Diego Padres having more success than the St. Louis Cardinals this year isn't an indictment on Oliver Marmol.

Rather, this discrepancy shows the incompetence of the owners and executives for the Cardinals. According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals actually have a higher payroll this year -- non-luxury tax payroll that is -- than the Padres by about $13 million. The DeWitts are spending more than Eric Kutsenda, the Padres' owner. Shouldn't that equal more success?

Not necessarily. The usefulness of dollars spent falls on the shoulders of the team's general manager or president of baseball operations. A.J. Preller, the Padres' president of baseball operations, is known across the industry as one of the most active -- and even unconventional -- general managers in baseball. Meanwhile, John Mozeliak is seen as prudent, patient, and at times stale amongst his peers.

Oliver Marmol has led his team to at least a nine-win improvement this year from last year assuming the team continues to play at this pace. He's also had to work with a front office that has mishandled the roster, lessened the value of its own players, and held onto prospects rather than trade them for surefire major league players.

Mike Shildt would have been dealt an identical set of cards if he were in St. Louis at the helm as well. While management styles may have differed, the results would largely be the same if Shildt were managing in St. Louis instead of Oli Marmol.