Is Cardinals' manager Oliver Marmol on the Hot Seat?

As of July 21st, the Cardinals sit at 44-54 and are in fourth place in a soft National League Central. Baseball Reference gives them a 2.5% chance to make the playoffs, placing them at 23rd overall. The World Series is a virtual impossibility.

Suffice it to say, this season hasn't gone as well as planned. Defensive mishaps, poor pitching, and streaky hitters have been part of the team's demise. There are a lot of people to blame for the team's performance thus far: management didn't target the starting rotation in the offseason, the coaching staff isn't preaching the fundamentals that used to be integral in the organization, and players aren't meeting their expectations. The question remains: is Oliver Marmol responsible enough for what has gone wrong in 2023 to be fired?

Josh Jacobs took a look at this topic back in April. At that point in time, he concluded that Marmol shouldn't be fired. Instead, Jacobs pointed out that situational hitting, management decisions, and bad pitching was mostly to blame for the bad season. Marmol can't fix most of those things.

It is tough to gauge a manager's effect on a baseball team. After all, these are grown men playing a sport that they have loved for years, if not decades at this point. Also, a manager is only one part of the think tank behind a team (owner, management, coaching staff, scouts); it's unfair to put all of the problems on one person. What a manager can do, however, is inspire, focus on fundamentals, place players in the best position to succeed, and make successful substitutions. Let's evaluate past managers for the Cardinals, Marmol's tenure as a manager, and the case for and against his firing.

Past Managers

First, let's take a look at the last two managers, their tenures, and their firings to see if the front office is apt to fire Marmol. Mike Matheny was hired to be the manager of the Cardinals after Tony La Russa's departure in 2011. He managed the team for six and a half years before being fired after 93 games in 2018. He took the team to the World Series in 2013 and had a100-win season in 2015. However, the Cardinals failed to make the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, leading to frustration in the front office. He was fired after leading the team to a 47-46 record in 2018. His overall record with the Cardinals was 591-474, good for a .555 winning percentage.

Mike Shildt was hired to replace Matheny in the 2018 season. Upon his takeover, the Cardinals went 41-28 to close out the 2018 season. The team missed the postseason, but Shildt showed his potential as a manager in his 69 games that season. He then led the team to the playoffs the next three years, 2019, 2020, and 2021. None of the teams made it past the first round, however. Excluding the COVID 2020 season, Shildt had an overall record of 222-171, good for a .565 winning percentage. Shildt was dismissed due to disagreements he had with the front office. Management wanted a greater focus on analytics while Shildt was a more traditional manager.

Oliver Marmol has been the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals for just over a year and a half. Marmol, a former bench coach on the team, was promoted due to his philosophical alignment with the front office, particulary John Mozeliak. He was the youngest manager in the league at the time of his hiring, and he appeared to have ample support inside the organization. Since his hiring, Marmol has a record of 137-122, good for a .529 winning percentage. We are at a similar point this year in the season as the team was in 2018 but with a much worse record. At the 93-game mark this year, the team was 40-53. It was quite surprising (and simultaneously not surprising given Marmol's support in the FO) that he was not fired at that point.

The Case for Firing Marmol

The case against Marmol has to start with player relations. Last year, Marmol and Harrison Bader got into a spat or two throughout the season. This year, Marmol appeared to have an issue with Tyler O'Neill less than a week into the regular season. Marmol's handling of the Willson Contreras situation has also been less than stellar. To have three separate manager-player incidents in a little over a year is not a positive sign about a manager's ability to work with his players.

Oliver has also gotten into it with umpires a few times, particularly C.B. Bucknor. Say what you want about Buckner as an umpire and a person, but there comes a point when an issue must be let go. Bucknor should have shaken Marmol's hand before a Spring Training game, but Marmol did not need to question the character of Bucknor. To hold onto some bad calls in a game for as long as Marmol has doesn't speak well to his character.

A manager can't choose the players on the roster like the general manager can. What a manager can do is play those guys at the best time. Overuse of his best bullpen arms has been a consistent qualm fans have with Marmol (and every other manager who has ever existed). Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante are used very heavily. While the best relievers on a team should be used the most, a lot of it depends on when they are used. For example, Ryan Helsley was used last year in 28 high-leverage situation, 17 middle-leverage situations, and 9 low-leverage situations for an Average Leverage Index of 1.595 (league average is 1). That is appropriate usage for a stud reliever, while one would hope that his low-leverage situations would be slightly lower, unless they were used to give him some innings in a large gap between save appearances.

On the other hand, Zack Thompson last year pitched in only 34 innings with a .981 WHIP and an ERA+ of 191. You would think that Thompson would have a leverage index score similar to Helsley's; he doesn't. His Average Leverage Index was .540 last year. He was primarily used in long-relief appearances, as he pitched in 11 multi-inning appearances. Meanwhile, pitchers like Jake Woodford (1.117 WHIP), Genesis Cabrera (left-handed like Thompson, 1.321 WHIP), and TJ McFarland (1.622 WHIP) all saw more or comparable innings to Thompson.

This year, Marmol has struggled to use his bullpen, though injuries and a lack of reliable options have hampered him. Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, and Giovanny Gallegos have been the three best relievrs on the roster thus far. Marmol has been using them effectively. However, he's been giving high-leverage innings (1.361 Average Leverage Index) to Andre Pallante, who has been struggling (4.47 ERA, 1.528 WHIP).

Marmol has also struggled putting hitters in a good position. Rather than looking strictly at the splits players have against pitchers, Marmol can sometimes rely simply on handedness. He'll play a lefty batter against a righty pitcher even if the batter has negative splits against right-handed pitchers. Dylan Carlson is very good against left-handed pitchers (.845 OPS); however, he has played the majority of his plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. I know Carlson is the best defensive center fielder we have, but his defensive prowess shouldn't always take precedence over his offensive short-comings.

Between Marmol's player management, bullpen usage, and platoon positioning, the case to fire him is strong.

Is Marmol Actually on the Hot Seat?

Probably not. If management were to fire him, it would have happened already. The Trade Deadline offers Marmol an out as well; Mozeliak trading players gives Marmol the talking point that he will need time to get the new roster to gel together.

Also, the front office and management wanted Marmol. He was their guy. It would look very bad on them to fire their guy a year and a half after hiring him. Firing three managers within 6 years is also bad for optics.

Marmol is here to stay for at least the rest of this year and probably most of next year. If the Cardinals see themselves as sellers again in 2024, Marmol could very well be on the hot seat again. If they play well and contend for the division lead next year, Marmol could see himself getting an extension.