How does Oli Marmol compare to other Cardinal managers?

Team hitting stats under Marmol

Getting on base is not the manager’s job. He is not the hitter or the hitting coach. This is all on the batters. They are doing a good enough job of getting on base. The Cardinals rank 9th on OBP. We rank higher than all of the other teams in our division. The Cardinals rank 8th in walks. We have the second-best hard-hit rate only behind the Braves. Once the player does his job, and the numbers say they are, then the manager takes over. The very second the batter’s foot hits the bag, it is at that exact point the manager (through the coach ) should be determining how to get that player to cross home plate.

Let’s look at some statistics to see what is happening after the batter puts the ball in play.

Taking the extra base - Baseball-Reference has a stat XBT% -- Extra Bases Taken Percentage (Percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible). The Cardinals rank 27th. In other words, they stop the runners at first, turning doubles into singles and triples into doubles. You could blame this on the coaches but the manager is the one that ultimately determines the aggressiveness of the team.

Stolen bases - The MLB changed the rules to make it easier to steal bases this year trying to generate more runs scored. St. Louis ranks 23rd. Last year they stole 95 bases. This year with less than three weeks left we have 90. Do they just have slow players? Baseball Savant has 27 ft/sec as the average sprint speed. Edman, O’Neill, Walker, Nootbar, and Donavan all have better than average speed. Edman has 24 stolen bases. The others combined have a total of only 20. When half your lineup has above-average speed, this is a big failure. To not take advantage of what the league just gave you is negligence. At the very least, it shows complete indifference.

Bunts/Sacrifice Flies - How is this manager with moving the runner over? They are 18th in bunts and only 27th in sacrifice flies. I get that bunting has become a lost art but at this point, the question is why are they that bad at moving players over, and they aren’t doing everything they can to generate a run? Again, these are usually calls from the dugout.

Bases Taken -(Bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, defensive indifference). The Cardinals rank 18th. These are give-me’s that are free.

1stS3 -- (On First, when a single is hit and the runner reaches third or scores.) The age-old first to third. One of the prettiest plays in baseball. The Cardinals rank 23rd. With above-average speed, this makes no sense to me.

Pinch Hitting - They rank 25th in the league for the number of pinch hits. Baseball-Reference has a stat to pair with the number of pinch hits. Pinch Hit Leverage Index (The importance of the context in which the Pinch Hitter was used Above one means higher than average pressure. Below one means lower than average pressure. ) The Cardinals index is 2.08. The only team with a higher index is the Rays with a 2.09. So this tells me they don’t pinch-hit very often but when they do it’s only when it’s a high-pressure situation such as the game is on the line in the 9th inning. Very seldom do we see this team pinch-hit in the sixth or seventh inning to get that one extra run.

RS% -- Run Scoring Percentage - (Percentage of times a baserunner eventually scores a run.) The Cardinals ranking: 31st. Only the Oakland As are more ineffective at scoring runs than they are.

Pitching and Defense

Without a doubt the Cardinals’ starting pitching was dreadful. There isn’t a lot that a manager can do with that. However, what he does with the relievers can mitigate the outcome of a game even with bad starts from his pitchers. When to go to the pen and which reliever to bring in is one of the biggest responsibilities of a manager.

Wlst -- Wins Lost (At the time the pitcher faced his final batter the pitcher was in position for a win, but the game was blown by the bullpen ) The Cardinals are tied for the second worse.

Losses Saved (At the time of his last batter the pitcher was in position for a loss, but the team came back to tie or take the lead. ) The Cardinals are second worse.

These two stats pretty much tell the story of the season. They can’t hold a lead and they can’t seem to come back after being down a run or more.

But is this all the fault of the pitchers? I don’t think so.

Inherited Runners (Number of runners on base when pitcher entered the game.) We have the third most runners on base when a reliever enters the game.

Games Entered With Bases Empty (Pitcher entered the game with no runners on base) Only one other team has fewer times having their relievers enter the game without it being a high-leverage situation.

IPmult (Games the pitcher pitched in more than one inning ) Rank 32. No other team in baseball has their relievers pitch more than one inning than the Cardinals.

This team has the 10th-highest amount of payroll spent on a pitching staff. The Cardinals WAR with that payroll is 29th. When you wait too long to bring in the reliever and he has to be perfect or you bring him in too early and make him pitch more than one inning bad things will happen. When you turn relievers into starters and starters into relievers as we have done this year, that only complicates things even more.

Defense

If you have a great defense that will cover up a lot of pitching inefficiencies. Outs Above Average we rank fourth from the bottom with a -26. Defensive Efficiency (Percentage of balls in play converted into outs) We are dead last.

I wrote a complete breakdown of the Cardinals’ defense here. The bottom line is that with all the Gold Gloves on this team the only way our defense is this bad is either with bad positioning or a complete indifference.

Summary

I know this is a bit longer than most articles here and I want to thank you for taking the time to get to the end. I didn’t want this to be an article that just says the manager is bad. The thing that makes baseball so special is we have all played it, we understand it, and it is a game that is shared and discussed by generations. We all yell at the television (I know you do) about taking the pitcher out or leaving him in, hit-and-runs, and all the other strategies that are a part of the game. Sometimes our lying eyes deceive us. Sometimes there are valid reasons for what the manager does. But sometimes our eyes aren’t lying.

I went into this exercise with an open mind hoping the data would contradict my feelings. Instead, my feelings were confirmed.

We have really good players. We have a lot of gold glovers. What we don’t have is a good team. After seeing the data it is easy to see why we are so ineffective at scoring runs. After looking at how the bullpen is being used, and the lack of defensive focus I can now see why the pitching is so bad.

My takeaway from this is most of the stats I cited are about in-game decisions the manager of a baseball team has to make and make at the right time. Half of them are not being made at all and the others are being made at the wrong time. The lack of aggressiveness is worse to me than making the wrong move. At least that would show you are trying.

Maybe, just maybe, our eyes aren’t lying after all.

The stats I have cited here are from Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, and change daily.