Four ways the Cardinals failed at the MLB trade deadline

Not snagging a top pitcher

The need was very clear for the Cardinals: get a starter who could slot in at the top of the rotation for both this year and years to come. Sounds pretty easy, right? Not so much. A player such as Cease or Gilbert, both aces on their teams with years of control left, would have cost the Cardinals a lot, particularly players they are fond of (Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, or even Jordan Walker).

Despite the price, the need for an ace or ace-type pitcher was very high for the Cardinals. The team should have been more willing to part with its controllable pieces for a very clear need: pitching. The prospects the Cardinals did get should help the team plenty. They can play in the minors now, allowing Zach Thompson and Matthew Liberatore to see time in the majors, and they could continue to develop and become good starting pitchers in the near future for the team.

However, the Cardinals don't need more mid-rotation pitchers; they have plenty of those already. What the team did need was a top-tier pitcher. Not getting one of these pitchers at this deadline is one way in which the front office fell short this year. Hopefully, a trade for a starting pitcher is in the plans for the offseason. Otherwise, the owner will have to open his checkbook, or the fanbase will be let down once again.

Holding on to the depth

The Cardinals did a good job dealing expiring contracts. Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, and Jordan Hicks were all set to be free agents at the end of the season. In a lost season, it made tremendous sense to get as good of a return for these players as possible. Paul DeJong was in a bit of a unique situation, as his contract has some opt-outs in the upcoming years.

In addition to the players who were traded, the front office should have traded from its depth. Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Alec Burleson, and Tommy Edman can all play the outfield; Brendan Donovan (now out for the season), Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Taylor Motter, and Jose Fermin can all play in the middle infield. DeJong's departure and Donovan's injury clear up the infield logjam slightly; however, there are still plenty of players who could have been traded.

Dealing Nootbaar, Edman, Carlson, Burleson, or Gorman would have netted a supreme starter for the rotation both this year and next year. I'm sure talks were had, but the prices were too high for a player of Logan Gilbert's or Dylan Cease's caliber. It still would have been nice to flip one of these controllable players from a position of strength to a team that could help an area of weakness for the Cardinals.

While it will be difficult to see long-time Cardinals such as Carlson, Edman, or O'Neill be traded this offseason, hopefully, the Cardinals can get a controllable, high-end starter in return. Depth is usually a good thing unless there is a serious dearth in another department.

Advertising their needs publicly

While it was no secret that the Cardinals needed pitching badly for both this year and next year, Mozeliak making it abundantly clear did not help the team's case. When it comes to business, great leaders avoid a competitor's strengths and capitalize on their weaknesses. Mozeliak made the team's weaknesses quite transparent.

The Cardinals' desperation for pitching allowed other front offices to capitalize on this. Other teams knew the Cardinals needed pitching, thus allowing them to possibly sell the Cardinals on lesser prospects. Had Mozeliak been a little more private about his team's plans to get pitching this year, he would have had a better bargaining chip in his back pocket.

Billy Eppler of the New York Mets, instead of going public and stating his team's needs at the deadline, had private conversations with his stars about the organization's path forward. By keeping it a secret that the team didn't intend to fully contend until 2025, he was able to target players who could help in that year. Had he shared this plan with the public, teams looking to add starting pitching and big bats may have been less willing to give him particular prospects.

By sharing publicly his plan, John Mozeliak gave opposing front offices a bargaining chip against him. Furthermore, it made the deadline results less inspiring given his clear statements about wanting a high-end starting pitcher. Selling is about focusing on the problem of the buyer, not necessarily your product. By focusing on his own problems, Mozeliak gave the upper hand in negotiations with the opposing front offices.

Waiting to make a trade

Way back in late June, the Texas Rangers made a trade with the Kansas City Royals for Aroldis Chapman. This was the unofficial start to the trade deadline shenanigans. While some minor trades happened in the ensuing month, most of the major actions didn't occur until the day of the trade deadline. Why is this the case each year? Why do sellers wait so long and buyers hold on until the last second?

Well, one answer would be clarity. Teams are waiting for a winning streak, a glimmer of hope, or another team's demise to commit to being a buyer or seller at the deadline. Multiple organizations waited until the results of games on Sunday and Monday to decide their fate at the 2023 deadline. Additionally, it is possible that the prices could rise as more teams become desperate to make a move at the last second, thus helping the sellers get more in return.

However, the sweet spot for dealing this past year is relatively clear. On July 27th, the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox agreed to a deal that sent starter Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels for 2 of their top-4 prospects. The next day, the Sox traded Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers for a serviceable outfielder in Trayce Thompson, Nick Nastrini (#5 organizational prospect), and Jordan Leasure (#27). This appears to have been the sweet spot for deals. The White Sox traded away players that wouldn't be around the next year and immediately flipped their farm system with just four players.

This decreased the need for teams such as the Angels and Dodgers to send valuable prospects to the Cardinals for rental players like Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery. Waiting also opened up the market for other teams to begin selling, such as the New York Mets. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer immediately became top trade targets for contenders across the league. Despite their expensive contracts, teams were willing to give up prospects for their ace-level talent. The entrance of the Mets' pitchers lowered the value of the Cardinals' pitchers.

Had the Cardinals dealt earlier in the deadline (July 26th or 27th, when it was clear they would sell and Monty and Flaherty had extra starts left), they could have beaten out the other sellers and gotten a bigger return. Waiting to sell increases the number of players available and decreases the number of buyers. More competition raises the prices of a product. Selling when as many teams as possible are interested creates a higher price for your players.