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Evaluating 4 ways the Cardinals can handle their outfield situation in 2024
Depending on how the Cardinals mix and match their outfielders, it will have a direct impact on the quality of their offense and defense in 2024
While most of the discussion surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals had focused on how they'll handle their pitching staff this offseason, another position remains in flux for the club - center field.
At first glance, the Cardinals have multiple options to turn to going forward. Lars Nootbaar is clearly the best player out of their internal options, but they seem to prefer him in the corner outfield long-term. The Cardinals seem to feel the same about Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson as well, with added uncertainty about their futures with the club.
They've even given Tommy Edman some run in center field, and although he's shown flashes defensively, I don't think he's done enough to run away with the job for 2024.
The Cardinals claimed center fielder Michael Siani off waivers the other day, and this was yet another move that shows that St. Louis is unsure of how they will handle that position moving forward.
It's clear that the club's defense has regressed in a major way this season, and they have sorely missed having elite defense in center field. Obviously, Jordan Walker's struggles in right field and the fiasco with Willson Contreras have been bigger issues, they may see an opportunity to upgrade the defense by better leveraging center field.
By mid-2024 or 2025, I would bet we see Victor Scott II roaming center field for them. He is tearing up Double-A this season with his plus-plus speed and plus-plus defense and could be their long-term answer out there. I interviewed Scott II on my podcast recently and he's the kind of guy fans are going to love when he makes his debut.
How the Cardinals structure their outfield in 2024 will have a major impact on their defense and their lineup. There are four different ways they can utilize their outfield to start 2024, so let's look at the ramifications of each of those.
Here are the four ways the Cardinals can structure their outfield in 2024
Tommy Edman in center field, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the corners
Let's start with one that would have been shocking to all of us back in April - the Cardinals could roll with Edman as their center fielder next year.
Edman has had himself an up-and-down 2023 season. Offensively, there have been times when Edman doesn't even look like an everyday player, and other times when he's the club's clutch bat. The organization loves Edman and all that he brings to the table, but his future with the club is less certain now than it has been in recent years.
I could really see them leaning toward Edman being their super utility player in 2024 or a valuable trade chip this offseason, but his defense in center may help him win a new everyday role.
Suppose Edman is relied on as the primary center fielder. In that case, St. Louis will need to bring in a safety net at shortstop outside of Masyn Winn, or be willing to rotate Nootbaar or others into center field when Edman spells Winn.
Brendan Donovan or Alec Burleson in left field, Lars Nootbaar in center field, and Jordan Walker in right field
This scenario leads to their strongest offense, but probably their weakest defensive alignment.
Nootbaar is a quality center fielder, but he's not the elite defender in center that can raise the overall defense that the Cardinals may need. If the Cardinals really do add a lot of strikeout stuff to their rotation and bullpen in the near future, they may be able to afford a lesser defense that allows them to prop up their offense even more. Just look at the kind of lineup they could run out.
1. CF Lars Nootbaar
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. 2B Nolan Gorman
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Willson Contreras
6. LF Brendan Donovan
7. RF Jordan Walker
8. DH Alec Burleson
9. SS Masyn Winn
There's an arguement to be had that the defense will improve next year even without an upgrade in center field. Walker has been showing signs of improvement in right field lately, and if he can be even league average next year, that's a huge improvement. Another year of Contreras behind the plate could calm down some of the issues he has had. Gorman continues to improve at second base, and Arenado is back to looking like himself at third. This isn't even to mention a full season of Winn at shortstop.
Assuming one or two of Edman, Carlson, or O'Neill are still with the team next year, they'll still have defensive options to lean on throughout the year as needed. The Cardinals' strength is their lineup, so doubling down on that makes a lot of sense.
Bring in a center fielder this offseason, with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the corners
This is where things get spicy, and honestly, I think the Cardinals will at least explore this in the offseason.
I don't really see them making a big swing here, as they have way too much they need to invest in their pitching staff for them to make a significant trade or free agent signing for their new center fielder.
Still, there are some names that could be of interest to St. Louis should they prefer to add a different center fielder to the mix. A reunion with Harrison Bader could come on a one-year "prove it deal" after his disappointing 2023 season, and their familiarity with one another could go a long way here.
Kevin Kiermaier was a rumored target last offseason, and he's had a bounce-back season in Toronto. He remains one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, and has had his best offensive season since 2017.
Bringing in a low-cost center fielder may have even more benefits than what they can provide on the field. This makes Carlson, O'Neill, or Burleson more expendable on the trade market, which will be helpful in their pursuit of pitching.
Give Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson a shot in left field, Lars Nootbaar in center field, and Jordan Walker in right field
Well, wouldn't this feel like a Cardinals move? I don't think this will happen, but you can't rule it out either.
The Cardinals really seem to have cooled on both O'Neill and Carlson as the year has gone on. Even so, both still present upside that the Cardinals may want to hold onto.
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O'Neill continues to be placed in the starting lineup each day when he decides he is good to go, and since being activated from the IL on July 20th, he's posted a .808 OPS and 122 wRC+ while stabilizing their defense in left field.
Carlson, on the other hand, has been on the IL as of late and has seen his stock plummet this year. While he hasn't done much to prove why he deserves to start in 2024, he may not hold enough value on the trade market to make it worth moving on from him.
Even if the Cardinals want to give one of them a shot again in 2024, they'll still have an option like Burleson, Edman, or Donovan to overtake them if needed.
If I had to bet, I think it's more likely that at least one of O'Neill or Carlson will be off the roster in 2024, and if one of them remains, they'll be a fourth outfielder for the club.