Do the Cardinals still have a chance to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto is probably the best pitcher available on the free-agent market right now. He may have been the best pitcher available when the off-season began, even before Aaron Nola and Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers and Phillies, respectively. He turned 25 this fall and has never thrown a pitch at the major league level. That’s because he’s spent the last seven seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Baseball League.

But, this off-season, he was posted by his current club. Now, he can be pursued and signed by any MLB organization. Yamamoto’s arrival has been met with much fanfare, and it’s obvious why so many teams have courted him. Yamamoto is a special talent. In 172 career appearances, he’s recorded a sterling 1.82 ERA. That’s because he is the complete package. He generates whiffs at a high rate, especially in Japan, where hitters are taught to value contact over power. He also keeps walks to a minimum. In 897 career innings, he’s registered 9.3 SO/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He’s allowed less than one baserunner per inning across his entire career, a mark that generally demarcates an excellent season. Sonny Gray, one of MLB’s best pitchers, has never matched that feat.

Now, it’s fair to question how his stuff will translate. Hitters in the NPB are good, but MLB’s best lineups are much more difficult to navigate. We saw Yamamoto face MLB hitters in the 2023 WBC, but that sample size was so tiny and strange that it should just be ignored. Instead, it’s more productive to compare him to other Japanese talents who have come stateside.

Possible Comparisons

One option is Yu Darvish. Darvish signed with the Texas Rangers at 25 and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the league. After an excellent rookie season, he rattled off four more excellent seasons before struggling in 2018 with the Chicago Cubs. He was particularly outstanding in 2013. After 2018, Darvish bounced back and has made two All-Star teams since then, bringing his impressive total to five selections. He’s also finished second in Cy Young Award voting twice, including during the 2020 season. Darvish, now with the San Diego Padres, has been outstanding. If Yamamoto replicates his success, any club he signs with will be incredibly happy to have him.

In 2013 Yu Darvish threw 209 innings, struck out 277 batters and had a 2.83 ERA. Do we think Yamamoto’s peak might ever come close to those numbers? pic.twitter.com/zvNy1n1gcv
— Jonny's Lasagna ⚾️ (@JLasagna43) December 16, 2023

Another comparison is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka came over to MLB to more fanfare than Darvish, who inked a relatively modest 6-year, $60MM deal. Tanaka signed a 7-year, $155MM contract with the Yankees before the 2014 season. His NPB numbers were better than Darvish’s, and are probably the best comparison to Yamamoto’s. Tanaka’s rookie season was a huge success. He was selected to the All-Star team and posted a 2.77 ERA in 136.1 innings. Unfortunately, that was the best year he’d have at the Major League level. Though he continued to post solid numbers until his departure following the 2020 season, he never truly lived up to the lofty expectations many carried. Tanaka finished his career with 1054.1 innings and a 3.74 ERA. He made two All-Star teams and finished seventh in Cy Young Award voting in 2016.

There remains a distinct possibility that Yamamoto does not fit within these parameters. He could immediately pitch at a superstar level and become Japan’s first pitcher to capture a Cy Young Award. Or, his career trajectory could resemble that of Yusei Kikuchi. Unlike the aforementioned pitchers, Kikuchi came to MLB before his age 28 season. He struggled with the Seattle Mariners while transitioning. He made an All-Star team in 2021, his third MLB season, but finished the season with a 4.41 ERA. It was just last season, his second in Toronto, that Kikuchi recorded his first season with an ERA under 4.00. He’s blossomed into an effective third starter, but it’s taken time and effort to adjust to MLB offenses.

So, could this even happen?

It’s obvious why the Cardinals should want a pitcher like Yamamoto. Even if he resembles Tanaka more than Darvish, he’d be a huge help to a rotation that, while significantly improved, still needs reinforcements. Yamamoto and Sonny Gray would make an excellent duo at the front of a pitching staff that could sneakily compete with the best rotations in the National League. But, many fans have been quick to dismiss dreams of Yamamoto as just that - dreams. They suggest the Cardinals won’t spend on him for a number of reasons. They claim the Cardinals don’t give out big contracts, a myth that has been debunked both by Josh Jacobs and the Noot News Podcast. They also claim the Cardinals don’t have the budget space, another myth that can easily be debunked.

The only reason the Cardinals can’t land Yamamoto is if they decide not to, and though that is a likely outcome, it doesn’t mean they can’t bring him to St. Louis. Over the past few weeks, several bits of information have emerged, alluding to the possibility that the Cardinals are in fact pursuing Yamamoto. So, let’s review the evidence.

Firstly, the Cardinals’ pursuit of Yamamoto at the Winter Meetings generated buzz among many in the industry.

From outsiders perspective - please keep that in mind - there were a few officials not with the Cardinals at the GM Meetings who thought the Cardinals were the quiet favorite to sign Yamamoto, and those same people at the Winter Meetings thought the market had soared beyond their reach.
Derrick Goold

This quote is a bit convoluted. But, what I'm getting is that the Cardinals were an active participant in discussions with and about Yamamoto in Nashville. Though nothing came together, some executives left the meetings with the belief that the Cardinals remained in the running. Some of these executives, whose own clubs had dropped out of the bidding war, believed that the Cardinals had quietly become the favorite to sign the Japanese phenom.

Then, there’s Yamamoto’s friendship with Lars Nootbaar. This is well-documented, so I won’t spend too much time on it. Since participating in the 2023 WBC together, Lars and Yoshinobu have become close friends. They’re often seen together on social media. Many players coming from overseas have openly discussed how difficult the transition can be. Kwang Hyun Kim, a KBO pitcher the Cardinals signed late in 2019, found MLB success but returned to the KBO to be closer to his family. While Nootbaar and Yamamoto aren’t directly related, a strong, established friendship could make the transition to MLB and life in the United States easier.

Even more interesting are these comments from John Mozeliak. At a press conference on December 17th, Mozeliak pushed back against assumptions that the Cardinals were done augmenting and improving their roster. At one point, he seemed to imply that they were more interested in adding a starter than a bullpen arm. He then hinted that the club could be active before the holidays begin. Perhaps they make a move between now and December 25th.

Very interesting comments from John Mozeliak this morning… pic.twitter.com/ALKmxorlON
— Ryan (@The_Ryan_Shull) December 17, 2023

Lastly, the off-season trajectory suggests they’re not finished. The Cardinals demonstrated aggressiveness early in the off-season, pouncing on the starting market and acquiring three starters by the end of November. With Gibson and Lynn in the fold, it’s unlikely they sign another back-end option. So, assuming Mozeliak remains actively engaged in the starter market, they’re probably looking at frontline options. Now, Glasnow, the best fit for the Cardinals via trade, has found a home in Los Angeles and though Cease remains an option, he’ll probably cost the Cardinals Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman. The Cardinals could get aggressive again and jump ahead of competitors sometime in the next week to sign yet another free-agent starter. Hopefully, that starter is Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

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