Deep dive into Steamer projections: What to expect from Cardinals pitchers in 2024

Steamer publishes its projections each season on Fangraphs. The St. Louis Cardinals' pitching projections are better than last year's, but they still aren't strong.

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Each year, Steamer generates player and team projections for the upcoming season. These statistics are published on Fangraphs. While ZiPS provides 80th percentile and 20th percentile projections, Steamer just gives one projection. Steamer uses past performance and aging curves to predict the most probable projection for a player. For pitchers, pitch-tracking data is utilized to estimate future performance.

According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals' five main starting pitchers are projected to be Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz next year. Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Sem Robberse are projected to be the "next men up" should injuries or underperformance arise in the rotation. I would also expect to see Drew Rom and Zack Thompson in the rotation next year at times.

Those nine starters are estimated to accumulate 12.9 fWAR in 2024. Sonny Gray is projected to be the team's best-starting pitcher next year, and he should be responsible for one-fourth of that WAR total. Last year, the Cardinals' first nine starting pitchers were Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Drew Rom, Adam Wainwright, and Jake Woodford. They had a total of 10.3 fWAR as a group.

Next year's rotation already figures to be an improvement on 2023 but not by an eye-popping margin. Mozeliak's goal this offseason was to improve the rotation for 2024; he raised the floor by a decent amount, but a top 3 of Gray, Lynn, and Gibson will not be able to contend in a playoff series against the rotations for the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, and Seattle Mariners.

The addition of another high-end starting pitcher such as Tyler Glasnow (projected for 3.8 fWAR in 2024, ninth highest according to Fangraphs) or Blake Snell (3.3 fWAR projection, twentieth overall) would significantly raise the ceiling of this rotation. While next year's rotation figures to be improved compared to last year's, Steamer still projects the Cardinals to be a middle-of-the-pack pitching team.

Let's take a deep dive into Steamer projections for the Cardinals' pitchers in 2024.

Starting Rotation

Sonny Gray, as is presumed by all fans of the Cardinals, will be the team's ace next year. He is projected to have a 3.82 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and strike out 8.62 batters per nine innings. Fangraphs expects him to pitch 180 innings. While his ERA would be more than one point higher than it was in 2023 (2.79), his FIP is right in line with last year's statistic. Gray allowed a minute 0.39 home runs per nine innings last year; that number is sure to increase next year.

The next four pitchers according to Steamer are all within 0.5 fWAR of each other. Lance Lynn (2.3 fWAR), Kyle Gibson (2.1 fWAR), Miles Mikolas (2.0 fWAR), and Steven Matz (1.8 fWAR) would round out the rotation. Lynn gets the greatest boost in fWAR numbers due to his BABIP projections. His ERA and FIP would actually be the worst of the top-five pitchers in the rotation, but he would do a good job at limiting hits. His HR/9 ratio is a bit high for comfort, but it is in line with his career statistics.

The most interesting player out of these four to me is Steven Matz. Matz is projected to only pitch 116 innings. If he were to pitch a comparable amount of innings to the other pitchers (175 innings, for example), he would be near 2.7 fWAR in 2023, the second-best total on the staff. Steven Matz has the talent to be a #2 or #3 starter, but his health has always been a concern. Steamer projects him to pitch in twenty-nine games but only be a starter in nineteen of them.

As far as the reserve starters go, Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are figured to be the next-best pitchers. Interestingly enough, Libby is projected to pitch in thirty games this year but only start in five of them. In fifty-one innings, Steamer projects Liberatore to have a 4.05 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and strike out 8.12 batters per nine innings, good for an fWAR total of just 0.4.

Sem Robberse is included on Steamer's projections, but they expect him to start only two games and pitch a total of nine innings. I don't see him getting a chance to start for the major league team over guys who have already had a chance such as Drew Rom and Zack Thompson. It is possible he leapfrogs them or Thompson is relegated to the bullpen, but I would expect either Rom or Thompson to see starts before Robberse.

Relievers

The top arms in relief for the Cardinals are projected to be Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Zack Thompson, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante. Helsely is leading the pack with an fWAR projection of 1.0, and the remaining players follow in order.

Helsley is tied for the sixth-highest fWAR total among all relievers, trailing only Mason Miller of Oakland, Jhoan Duran of Minnesota, Edwin Diaz of New York, Jose Alvarado of Philadelphia, and Pete Fairbanks of Tampa Bay. Ryan Helsley has been one of the best closers these past three years despite facing some injuries last year, and he figures to be the team's closer in 2024.

The team's newest additions, Nick Robertson (Tyler O'Neill trade) and Ryan Fernandez (Rule 5 Draft), are projected to accumulate only 0.4 fWAR. Robertson is projected to have a low groundball percentage and pitch fifty-six innings. Ryan Fernandez will likely start the season in the minors, but he could make the Major League roster out of the gate. Neither of these new acquisitions are high-strikeout pitchers, but they both do a fine job at limiting walks.

JoJo Romero had a breakout year last year in the bullpen, and he is projected to see a glut of innings most probably in high-leverage situations. Zack Thompson is more than likely going to be a swingman out of the bullpen. These two pitchers should complement Helsley comfortably. Giovanny Gallegos is projected to rebound nicely from last year (4.42 ERA, 9.7 K/9in 2023). Steamer projects him to have a 3.98 ERA and 9.41 K/9 ratio.

While the Cardinals' bullpen won't be the best part of the team, it has a decent amount of depth with players such as Zack Thompson, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante. One player to keep an eye on is Adam Kloffenstein, the right-handed pitcher acquired from Toronto. He has high strikeout potential, and despite struggling in his first taste of AAA baseball, he does a great job at limiting home runs. Steamer expects him to pitch only six innings next year, but if he shows out in Memphis, he could see an early promotion to the major league bullpen.

The Cardinals' bullpen won't blow anyone away, but it has decent depth and a closer at the back end who is a top-8 reliever in all of baseball.

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