Deep dive into Steamer projections: What to expect from Cardinals pitchers in 2024

Each year, Steamer generates player and team projections for the upcoming season. These statistics are published on Fangraphs. While ZiPS provides 80th percentile and 20th percentile projections, Steamer just gives one projection. Steamer uses past performance and aging curves to predict the most probable projection for a player. For pitchers, pitch-tracking data is utilized to estimate future performance.

According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals' five main starting pitchers are projected to be Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz next year. Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Sem Robberse are projected to be the "next men up" should injuries or underperformance arise in the rotation. I would also expect to see Drew Rom and Zack Thompson in the rotation next year at times.

Those nine starters are estimated to accumulate 12.9 fWAR in 2024. Sonny Gray is projected to be the team's best-starting pitcher next year, and he should be responsible for one-fourth of that WAR total. Last year, the Cardinals' first nine starting pitchers were Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Drew Rom, Adam Wainwright, and Jake Woodford. They had a total of 10.3 fWAR as a group.

Next year's rotation already figures to be an improvement on 2023 but not by an eye-popping margin. Mozeliak's goal this offseason was to improve the rotation for 2024; he raised the floor by a decent amount, but a top 3 of Gray, Lynn, and Gibson will not be able to contend in a playoff series against the rotations for the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, and Seattle Mariners.

The addition of another high-end starting pitcher such as Tyler Glasnow (projected for 3.8 fWAR in 2024, ninth highest according to Fangraphs) or Blake Snell (3.3 fWAR projection, twentieth overall) would significantly raise the ceiling of this rotation. While next year's rotation figures to be improved compared to last year's, Steamer still projects the Cardinals to be a middle-of-the-pack pitching team.

Let's take a deep dive into Steamer projections for the Cardinals' pitchers in 2024.

Starting Rotation

Sonny Gray, as is presumed by all fans of the Cardinals, will be the team's ace next year. He is projected to have a 3.82 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and strike out 8.62 batters per nine innings. Fangraphs expects him to pitch 180 innings. While his ERA would be more than one point higher than it was in 2023 (2.79), his FIP is right in line with last year's statistic. Gray allowed a minute 0.39 home runs per nine innings last year; that number is sure to increase next year.

The next four pitchers according to Steamer are all within 0.5 fWAR of each other. Lance Lynn (2.3 fWAR), Kyle Gibson (2.1 fWAR), Miles Mikolas (2.0 fWAR), and Steven Matz (1.8 fWAR) would round out the rotation. Lynn gets the greatest boost in fWAR numbers due to his BABIP projections. His ERA and FIP would actually be the worst of the top-five pitchers in the rotation, but he would do a good job at limiting hits. His HR/9 ratio is a bit high for comfort, but it is in line with his career statistics.

The most interesting player out of these four to me is Steven Matz. Matz is projected to only pitch 116 innings. If he were to pitch a comparable amount of innings to the other pitchers (175 innings, for example), he would be near 2.7 fWAR in 2023, the second-best total on the staff. Steven Matz has the talent to be a #2 or #3 starter, but his health has always been a concern. Steamer projects him to pitch in twenty-nine games but only be a starter in nineteen of them.

As far as the reserve starters go, Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are figured to be the next-best pitchers. Interestingly enough, Libby is projected to pitch in thirty games this year but only start in five of them. In fifty-one innings, Steamer projects Liberatore to have a 4.05 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and strike out 8.12 batters per nine innings, good for an fWAR total of just 0.4.

Sem Robberse is included on Steamer's projections, but they expect him to start only two games and pitch a total of nine innings. I don't see him getting a chance to start for the major league team over guys who have already had a chance such as Drew Rom and Zack Thompson. It is possible he leapfrogs them or Thompson is relegated to the bullpen, but I would expect either Rom or Thompson to see starts before Robberse.