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4 takeaways from the Tyler O'Neill trade and its impact on the Cardinals' offseason

The Cardinals just traded Tyler O'Neill to the Boston Red Sox. They got back an interesting reliever but did not return a starter. What does this mean for their plans?

By Sandy McMillan |
St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds / Kirk Irwin/GettyImages
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Takeaway 1 - They didn't get a starter.

I know this feels really obvious but just bear with me. I believe the Cardinals could have traded O'Neill to the Guardians for Shane Bieber. In fact, I believed it would happen. Now, I'm picking up the pieces of my shattered hopes and dreams. Let me take you through my thought process.

"Pitching, pitching, pitching." That's how John Mozeliak described his off-season plans earlier this fall. And it's exactly what he's done to this point. He's now added Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray. These signings are a mixed bag. There's some stuff to be optimistic about. Gray is coming off of an elite season. Kyle Gibson led the AL in quality starts last year. Lance Lynn racked up a ton of strikeouts. There are also some concerns. All three are aging. Lynn allowed a ton of homers. Gibson had a 4.73 ERA. Gray's season was somewhat of a career outlier.

All of that said, the Cardinals should go get one more starter. Barring a miracle run at Yamamoto, this arm probably comes from the trade market, where there are still plenty of exciting options. At the top of the market are Cease and Glasnow. Those options are risky and expensive. Cease is cost-controlled, but will likely cost Gorman or Donovan. Glasnow may cost less in terms of prospect capital, but he's due almost 25MM in 2024. There's also Shane Bieber.

Bieber was once one of baseball's best pitchers. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2019 before putting it all together and winning the 2020 AL Cy Young Award. He followed that up with an outstanding first half of 2021 before suffering his first serious injury. He bounced back nicely, finishing seventh in Cy Young Award voting in 2022 before missing most of the 2023 season. It must be noted that when he did pitch, the results were largely solid. He still managed to keep his ERA under 4.00, even with reduced stuff. His 3.87 FIP suggests that he wasn't too lucky, which is certainly an encouraging sign.

The new Shane Bieber probably isn't the same Shane Bieber who captured the 2020 Cy Young Award. He may never contend for one of those again. He may not even make another All-Star team. But, it still seems as if he's a capable pitcher. If he's healthy, it's worth pursuing him to patch up the holes in this rotation. He won't pitch at the front, but a 3.80 ERA makes for a fine number-three starter.

But why would Cleveland trade Bieber? The Guardians find themselves in a tough position. They're struggling financially in the midst of Diamond Sports Group's collapse. That's not exactly unique, but a team like Cleveland in one of baseball's smallest markets is more likely to suffer. Bieber is entering his final year of arbitration and will be worth nearly $15MM. The Guardians seem to be uncomfortable with that lofty price. They're also trying to win. They have an exciting group of young pitchers, headlined by Tanner Bibee, Triston Mackenzie, and Daniel Espino. However, they've struggled to develop impact bats. It's likely that a Bieber trade could bring one in return.

Before he was traded, O'Neill felt like the perfect return for Cleveland, who trotted out one of baseball's worst offenses in 2023. O'Neill, like Bieber, has trended down in recent seasons. Since breaking out in 2021, O'Neill has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness. Yet, there's no reason to assume that he can't still contribute to an offense in a positive way. O'Neill remains a talented and powerful hitter. It was exactly that power that would have made O'Neill attractive to Cleveland, which has been dealing with a severe power outage in recent years.

It's possible the Cardinals may have to add a bit more to this deal, though additional cash would likely have done it for Cleveland. There are even other players on Cleveland's roster, such as James Karinchak or Emmanuel Clase, who the Cardinals could have attempted to package together. They'd have had to give up more, but this could've allowed them to fix multiple holes at once.

But alas, Tyler O'Neill has been traded, and the Cardinals didn't go get Shane Bieber. O'Neill is a member of the Red Sox, and that cannot be changed. I reacted to this with site expert Josh Jacobs and site contributor Andrew Wang on the Noot News Podcast, as there was just so much to break down from this move for the Cardinals.

What does this mean moving forward? Are the Cardinals done adding starting pitching? (Hint, they shouldn't be!) We'll discuss three more takeaways from this deal in this article.

Takeaway 2 - Tyler O'Neill's value was lower than we thought.

It's tough to think about, but it's probably true. O'Neill was likely one of the most valuable pieces in all of baseball following the 2021 season. Now, just two years later, he couldn't even bring back a decent prospect. Such a result would have been unthinkable at the time. On top of that, the Cardinals weren't just listening to offers. They were actively shopping Tyler O'Neill. Unfortunately, this is our new reality.

The Cardinals traded Tyler O'Neill for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Santos is unlikely to impact the big league club, especially in 2024. Robertson will probably compete for a bullpen spot, and he has interesting peripheral numbers. He pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 22.1 innings in 2023, but he was incredibly unlucky. His FIP was a much more respectable 3.88.

Even if Robertson has a nice year in the bullpen and becomes a reliable option for the middle innings, it's difficult to pretend I'm happy with this outcome. At one point, O'Neill was the third bat to go with Arenado and Goldschmidt. Even with all of these issues, it's entirely possible that he makes an All-Star team again. Nobody will be surprised if Tyler O'Neill hits .275 with 35 homers at Fenway in 2024. That's not to mention the strong defensive and base running skills he brings to the table. It's just not hard to imagine O'Neill morphing back into a very valuable player. Is it going to happen? Who can say? But if it does, the Cardinals will probably be harangued, just as they have been for Garcia and Arozarena.

For what it's worth, Foolish Baseball seems to think O'Neill will return to form in 2024. Here's what he's said over the last week.

The whole situation is just a little disappointing. I'm not just talking about the trade and its minimal return. The last two years of Tyler O'Neill have just underwhelmed in every possible way. Why should his time in St. Louis conclude any differently?

Takeaway 3 - The Cardinals didn't "fix" their bullpen.

This is a tough pill to swallow. Basically, the Tyler O'Neill trade can only be thought of as a salary dump. The Cardinals brought in an interesting reliever, but he doesn't fix the problems in this bullpen. He's not going to slot into the back end of this pen, and he's not going to be closing down games any time soon. Thus, they still need to go out and acquire another reliever. They probably still need two arms, even after selecting Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft. For a more robust discussion of what Ryan Fernandez brings to the table, see this thread on X posted by Aram Leighton.

The Cardinals have added depth, but that won't be enough. Their bullpen was among the least reliable in all of baseball in 2023. A healthy Helsley and a full season of Romero will fix some of those problems, but they're also missing solid contributors such as Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Drew VerHagen.

The silver lining here is that the Cardinals have freed up enough money to sign multiple bullpen arms. Guys like John Brebbia and Phil Maton likely won't be too expensive. Two solid arms in this middle tier of the relief market could easily combine for a total AAV of 7MM or less. If the Cardinals go out and make this happen, it'll be easier to deal with the fact that they didn't bring back a reliever with meaningful major-league experience. Even more encouraging is the fact that they could devote more resources to the bullpen. The Cardinals now have the cash available to make a splash and sign a bigger name. Perhaps a reunion with Jordan Hicks is in the cards.

I want to be clear; this isn't Mozeliak's fault. It just goes back to takeaway number two. O'Neill had far less value than we had ever feared. It's likely that no interested market even developed.

Takeaway 4 - The Cardinals *may be* interested in higher ceiling arms than Shane Bieber

To this point, this article has been a total downer. But, it's time to consider the biggest positive in this deal. By trading O'Neill, the Cardinals freed up a hefty chunk of change. They still need a starter just as badly as they did before. They should not be done in the starter market. They didn't take on Shane Bieber and his limiting contract. Let's connect the dots here.

If there was any question as to whether the Cardinals had the payroll space to accommodate another signing, there isn't any longer. They could now sign Yamamoto if they wanted to, and they'd still manage to stay under the 200MM mark. They could go get Jordan Montgomery. Glasnow's 25MM salary no longer looks nearly as dangerous. They could make one of these moves for another elite starter and still have the space to bolster the bullpen.

Maybe I'm reaching, but I think by not getting Bieber, the Cardinals are making it clear that they want another top-of-the-rotation arm. Bieber probably couldn't have fit on the team with another one of the aforementioned starters. Now there's space to accommodate one of them. And in this dream scenario, the Cardinals won't be forced to part with Gorman or Donovan. They can keep their prospects and acquire a true frontline starter. If the Cardinals follow this plan, the O'Neill trade will go from mildly disappointing to laudable. Make it happen Cards!

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