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Counting down the 20 most important Cardinals in 2023: #16 Steven Matz
The 20 most important St. Louis Cardinals in 2023: #16 Steven Matz
Each day leading up to Opening Day, our Redbird Rants team will be counting down the 20 most important St. Louis Cardinals for the 2023 season. Here are the players we have covered thus far.
Today we shift to the starting rotation, specifically to the only member of the 2023 starting staff who is signed for next season, #16 on our list, Steven Matz.
Matz, 31, was selected by the New York Mets in the second round of the 2009 draft. However, his professional debut was delayed until 2012 because of Tommy John surgery on the southpaw's pitching elbow shortly after he was drafted. Matz acquitted himself well during his minor league progression, with his only ERA above 2.62 during that time coming in a 3.2-inning pit stop in High-A St. Lucie.
Following a six-start big league pot of coffee in 2015 in which Matz posted a 2.27 ERA, Matz made 22 starts in 2016 and recorded a 3.40 ERA, making the Mets' decision to early round snag him early in the draft look like a prudent move. However, things turned sour in the '17 season as Matz put up a 6.08 ERA in 13 starts and spent some time in the minors.
While Matz bounced back to nearly average in the 2018-'19 time period, his performance during the shortened 2020 campaign was nightmarish, as he posted a 9.68 ERA during six starts and three relief appearances. The following January, Matz was jettisoned to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for three minor leaguers.
Matz had a strong season in Canada heading into free agency, going 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 150.2 IP. That platform year earned him the four-year, $44M contract he currently is under with the Redbirds. An abbreviated first season saw Matz pitch just 48 innings (while striking out 54 batters) with a 5.25 ERA.
Why is Steven Matz important for St. Louis in 2023?
As mentioned previously, Matz is the only member of this year's expected starting rotation with a contract for next year. The Cardinals will feel better about next winter if they have confidence Matz can be an above-average starter through 2025. But that's next season. What about this season?
There's certainly a silver lining to be spotted in Matz's 2022 performance. Remember back in '21 when he recorded a 3.82 ERA? Well, his ERA+, which compares pitchers to an average of 100 and accounts for his home ballpark, was 117, meaning he was 17% better than an average pitcher. Matz also struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings. Additionally, his FIP, which evaluates pitchers based only on their strikeouts, walks, HBP, and home runs allowed, was 3.79.
Flash forward to 2022, and his FIP was 3.78, essentially the same as the previous year despite an ERA over 1.4 runs higher. While his ERA+ was an ugly 73, Matz whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, a rate 1.5 K/9 higher than in '21. Also, he reduced his WHIP (Walks+Hits / Innings Pitched) from 1.33 in '21 to 1.25 last year.
Is Matz going to compete for a Cy Young award? Almost certainly not. But free agent pitchers of that caliber, such as Justin Verlander, can earn over $40M per season on a short-term deal, while long-term pacts for aces cost $30M+ per year. Even mediocre pitchers like Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker got $17M-$18M per season over four years this winter.
If Matz can be a No. 3 or No. 4-level pitcher going forward and make 25-30 starts per year, eating up 150 or so innings, the Cardinals will be quite happy to pay him the remaining $35.5M coming to him over the next three seasons.
With age (Adam Wainwright), injury (Jack Flaherty), and free agency (Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Jordan Montgomery) concerns with the rest of the St. Louis rotation, the Cardinals will be quite pleased if Matz can be a consistently solid-if-unspectacular starter over the coming months and years.
Given the offensive fireworks the Redbird bats can provide, the excellent defense the team possesses, a gaggle of young position players pushing for playing time, and a strong bullpen backing up the starting rotation, St. Louis had the opportunity to put together a very good season. Steven Matz isn't the centerpiece of the team, but he's a notable piece of the puzzle whom the Cardinals are counting on simply to fulfill expectations.
Next. 20 most important Cardinals of 2023: #17 Giovanny Gallegos. dark