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Cardinals: ZiPS projections give St. Louis' lineup a high-ceiling in 2023

By Josh Jacobs |
Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals - Game Two
Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals - Game Two / Dilip Vishwanat/GettyImages
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What seemed to be the St. Louis Cardinals' biggest question mark each season has now turned into one of the best units in all of baseball, according to ZiPS, their lineup has a high ceiling in 2023.

Projections are what they are, projections. But they tend to give you a good idea of what both the ceiling and the floor of any given club are entering a season.

One of my favorite projections capture here is the 80th/20th percentile outcomes for each player. What would it look like if a player had one of their strongest seasons, and what does a "flop" look like? According to ZiPS, nine different Cardinals could be 25% above league average or higher in 2023. To put this into context, only six players on the Phillies have that kind of ceiling in 2023.

That group of players does not even include Brendan Donovan or Jordan Walker in them either, who could easily join that conversation with continued development this coming year.

What does this all say about the Cardinals for next season?

The Cardinals could be the most dangerous offense in 2023

Before you roll your eyes and say "I'm sick of hearing that they could be something", it really feels more likely than not that the Cardinals are a top offense next season, and the potential to be the best is very real.

First, there is Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras. Pen those in as big bats in 2023, with Goldschmidt and Arenado each having at least a 135 wRC+. Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez, and Nolan Gorman each have the potential to be in that range too - and I'd throw Jordan Walker in there too even if ZiPS doesn't.

Donovan, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson all fall in that group of 25% above league-average ability and can be really good complimentary pieces in the lineup.

All in all, outside of the big three bats, is it really that hard to believe that a few of the eight different options will rise and contribute in a big way in 2023? The beauty of having so many different options is that now St. Louis is not banking on one or two guys to "boom" for them to win, but they can almost field an entire lineup of guys who can produce at a high level outside of their top three guys.

Whether it's ZiPS projections or expert rankings, most believe the Cardinals' lineup will be strong in 2023. After the Cardinals are able to solidify which players they want to prioritize on their roster, then they can deal with the surplus to upgrade that polarizing rotation. The Cardinals are wise to wait and see which bats play best in 2023, rather than find themselves short of what they need in this area as well.

Next. Cardinals' depth is a strength in 2023. dark

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