%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20viewBox%3D%220%200%20991.1%20200%22%20style%3D%22enable-background%3Anew%200%200%20991.1%20200%3B%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cstyle%20type%3D%22text%2Fcss%22%3E%0A%09.st0%7Bfill%3A%23231F20%3B%7D%0A%09.st1%7Bfill%3A%23C41E3A%3B%7D%0A%09.st2%7Bfill%3A%23FFFFFF%3B%7D%0A%09.st3%7Bopacity%3A0.2%3B%7D%0A%09.st4%7Bfill%3A%23A7A9AC%3B%7D%0A%09.st5%7Bfill%3A%23002A5C%3B%7D%0A%09.st6%7Bfill%3A%23808080%3B%7D%0A%3C%2Fstyle%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Template%22%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Layer_2%22%3E%0A%09%3Cg%3E%0A%09%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M124.1%2C143.5c-2.6-5.9-2.8-15-3.9-24.5c-0.3-2.8-2.3-14.5-7.9-20.6c-5.5-6.1-12.5-8.6-13.6-9.2%0A%09%09%09c10-3.7%2C16-8.4%2C19.9-15.6c6.5-12.8%2C7.2-26.8-5-38.9c-3-3-7.5-5.3-13.4-7.3c-22.6-7.9-61.5%2C2.5-82.1-4.4c-6.5-2.2-7.8-7-8.6-10.6%0A%09%09%09c-0.6-3.4-5.1-0.6-6.9%2C2C0.1%2C18.8-3%2C27.8%2C6.2%2C34.4c11.1%2C7.8%2C46.3%2C4.4%2C68.2%2C4.7c23.7%2C0.3%2C27.4%2C18.4%2C18.4%2C34.7%0A%09%09%09c-7%2C12.3-23.2%2C11.4-25.9%2C10.6C68%2C80.6%2C76.1%2C56%2C77%2C52.8c1.7-5.5-2.3-9.5-6.9-8.3c-6.1%2C2-5%2C4.8-24.8%2C9.8c-6.7%2C1.7-3.6%2C5.6-1.7%2C9.2%0A%09%09%09c0.6%2C1.1%2C0.5%2C3.3%2C0%2C5.4c-0.3%2C1.2-13.9%2C47.8-17.9%2C60c-1.2%2C3.6-3.3%2C4.5-5.8%2C6.4c-5.6%2C3.9-6.7%2C9.5%2C0.8%2C9.5c11.8-0.2%2C22.7%2C0%2C33.8%2C0%0A%09%09%09c3%2C0%2C5-1.4%2C5.1-4.4c0-5.1-6.1-5.1-6.2-8.1c2.3-9.3%2C6.7-26.6%2C9.5-35.7c8.6-0.6%2C15.3%2C1.4%2C19.8%2C4.7c5.6%2C4%2C6.2%2C12.5%2C6.5%2C15.7%0A%09%09%09c0.9%2C10.9%2C1.6%2C26.2%2C4.5%2C34.6c2%2C5.6%2C5.1%2C11.1%2C10.1%2C13.7c12.8%2C6.7%2C28.8%2C1.2%2C34.3-2.2c4.2-2.3%2C5.5-5.5%2C3.9-8.3%0A%09%09%09C140.2%2C151.5%2C130.1%2C156.9%2C124.1%2C143.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M380.3%2C65.7c6.4%2C0%2C12.1-4.8%2C12.9-10.9c0.9-6.2-3.6-11.1-9.8-11.1c-6.4%2C0-12.1%2C4.8-13.1%2C11.1%0A%09%09%09C369.5%2C60.8%2C373.9%2C65.7%2C380.3%2C65.7z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M551%2C104.8c2-4.7-2.8-8.5-7.2-8.2c-3.7%2C0.3-7.5%2C2.2-7.8%2C7.9c0%2C1.8%2C0.4%2C3.2%2C1.1%2C4.5%0A%09%09%09c-3.6%2C7.7-7.8%2C17.3-14.1%2C16.6c-5.3-0.6-0.8-13.6-0.8-13.6c2.6-8.3%2C17.3-51.9%2C22.9-69.5c1.4-4.5-2-7.9-5.8-6.9%0A%09%09%09c-2.8%2C0.9-5%2C3-8.3%2C4.4c-4.2%2C1.9-8.3%2C2.6-12.5%2C3.9c-5.3%2C1.6-3%2C4.7-1.4%2C7.6c0.8%2C1.6%2C0%2C5.3-0.8%2C7.9c-4.7%2C13.6-10.6%2C30.1-14.8%2C41.7%0A%09%09%09c-1.6%2C4-6.9%2C20.1-7.5%2C21.6c-8.1%2C20.4-17.3%2C10.1-16.2-1.7c0.3-4.7%2C1.1-10.3%2C3.1-15.9c5-14.8%2C9.8-20.2%2C16-20.4%0A%09%09%09c0.9%2C1.4%2C2.3%2C2.3%2C4%2C2.3c2.6%2C0%2C4.7-2.2%2C4.8-4.8c0.3-3.6-2.6-7-12.5-6.2c-16.8%2C1.2-33.8%2C15-38.9%2C33c-3.6%2C7.9-7.8%2C17.4-14.2%2C16.7%0A%09%09%09c-5.1-0.6-0.8-13.5-0.8-13.5c0.6-1.7%2C3-10.9%2C3.7-14.5c2.5-10.3%2C0-19.9-7.9-21.5c-4-0.8-7.9%2C1.1-13.4%2C0.3c0.6-1.9%2C1.1-3.4%2C1.1-5.5%0A%09%09%09c0-7.2-5.3-12-12-12c-6.5%2C0-12%2C5.4-12%2C12c0%2C3.9%2C1.9%2C7.5%2C4.8%2C9.7c0.5%2C8.9-7.2%2C24.1-10.6%2C31.3c-0.3%2C0.6-0.5%2C1.2-0.6%2C1.7%0A%09%09%09c-3.1%2C6.2-6.9%2C12.3-12.1%2C12.8c-1.4%2C0-2.5-0.3-3.4-1.4c-1.1-1.2-1.6-4.5%2C1.1-13.1c4-12.8%2C8.1-23.2%2C9.3-25.7c2.8-5.6%2C4.4-6.4%2C4.7-9%0A%09%09%09c0.3-1.9-0.9-3.1-1.9-3.3c-3.1-0.8-4.8%2C1.4-9%2C2.2c-5.3%2C0.9-14-1.2-14.5%2C2c-0.8%2C5.3-2.2%2C9.5-4.8%2C16.5c-1.7%2C4.8-5.6%2C15.1-7%2C19%0A%09%09%09c-2.2%2C4.1-5.3%2C8.5-9.5%2C12c-1.7%2C1.4-5.8%2C3.9-8.6%2C3c5-4.8%2C7.5-8.9%2C10.3-15c3.3-7.2%2C5.1-14.8%2C3.7-22.7c-1.2-7.8-8.6-15-17.6-15.4%0A%09%09%09c-5-0.3-10.1%2C0.5-15.3%2C0.9c5-15%2C9-27.7%2C10.9-33.5c1.4-4.5-2-8.1-5.8-7c-3.7%2C1.1-6.1%2C3.7-11.5%2C5.8c-3.3%2C1.2-6.4%2C1.9-9.2%2C2.6%0A%09%09%09c-5.5%2C1.4-3.1%2C4.7-1.6%2C7.8c0.9%2C1.6%2C0.2%2C5.3-0.6%2C7.9c-2.8%2C8.1-8.9%2C25.9-14.8%2C43.3c-0.5%2C1-1.2%2C2.5-2.2%2C4.5%0A%09%09%09c-3.7%2C7.8-7.9%2C18.2-14.5%2C17.4c-5.3-0.6-0.8-13.6-0.8-13.6c2.6-8.3%2C17.3-51.9%2C22.9-69.5c1.4-4.5-2-7.9-5.8-6.9%0A%09%09%09c-2.8%2C0.9-5%2C3-8.3%2C4.4c-4.2%2C1.9-8.3%2C2.6-12.5%2C3.9c-5.3%2C1.6-3%2C4.7-1.4%2C7.6c0.8%2C1.6%2C0%2C5.3-0.8%2C7.9c-4.7%2C13.6-10.6%2C30.1-14.8%2C41.7%0A%09%09%09c-1.6%2C4-6.9%2C20.1-7.5%2C21.6c-8.1%2C20.4-17.3%2C10.1-16.2-1.7c0.3-4.7%2C1.1-10.3%2C3.1-15.9c5-14.8%2C9.8-20.2%2C16-20.4%0A%09%09%09c0.9%2C1.4%2C2.3%2C2.3%2C4%2C2.3c2.6%2C0%2C4.7-2.2%2C4.8-4.8c0.3-3.6-2.6-7-12.5-6.2c-16.1%2C1.2-32.4%2C13.9-38.2%2C30.8c-0.9%2C1.4-2%2C2.8-3.2%2C4.2%0A%09%09%09c-4.4%2C5.3-14.6%2C15.4-28.8%2C14.8c-4-0.2-6.9-2.5-8.6-5.5c8.6-3.3%2C27.4-11.1%2C34.3-22.1c7.5-11.7%2C1.6-23.8-15.7-23%0A%09%09%09c-23.4%2C1.1-41.9%2C20.4-44.7%2C38.3c-2.8%2C18.1%2C4.5%2C31.1%2C23.5%2C31.1c10%2C0%2C18.7-2.6%2C26.5-7.2c5.6-3.3%2C10.8-7.3%2C15.3-11.9%0A%09%09%09c1%2C4.4%2C3.1%2C8.3%2C6.2%2C11.4c11.4%2C11.7%2C29.1%2C6.9%2C36-1.6c0.3%2C0.8%2C0.6%2C1.4%2C1.1%2C1.9c5.4%2C7.4%2C17.5%2C10.1%2C30.8%2C0.6c-0.9%2C3.3%2C1.5%2C6.7%2C5%2C6.7%0A%09%09%09c4.4%2C0%2C9.7%2C0%2C13.1%2C0c2%2C0%2C3.7-1.1%2C4.7-2.8c3%2C1.6%2C6.7%2C3%2C11.5%2C2.8c4.4-0.2%2C6.9-1.2%2C10.3-2.6c12.5%2C6.3%2C25%2C0.3%2C34.4-8.2%0A%09%09%09c0.5%2C2.1%2C1.1%2C3.6%2C1.8%2C4.5c7.3%2C10%2C26.2%2C11.5%2C44.1-12.8c5.2-7.1%2C6.6-10.8%2C8.2-14.6c3.2-6%2C6.2-12.9%2C11.2-25c2.3%2C0.5%2C6.7%2C0.2%2C3.9%2C7.2%0A%09%09%09c-4.4%2C11.5-7.5%2C21.3-7.6%2C21.3c-1.2%2C4.4-2.2%2C11.1-2.2%2C13.1c-0.2%2C5.1%2C1.2%2C8.4%2C2.3%2C10.1c6.7%2C9.2%2C23.6%2C11.1%2C40.5-8.3%0A%09%09%09c1.2%2C2.9%2C2.8%2C5.5%2C5%2C7.7c11.4%2C11.7%2C29.1%2C6.9%2C36-1.6c0.3%2C0.8%2C0.6%2C1.4%2C1.1%2C1.9c7.2%2C9.8%2C26%2C11.4%2C43.9-12.8c1.4-1.9%2C2.6-3.6%2C3.5-5.1%0A%09%09%09c1.1%2C2.5%2C1.8%2C5%2C2.1%2C7.5c2.6%2C20.1-18.2%2C39.9-45.9%2C39.9c-28.2%2C0-251.5-18.4-294-9.3c-5.6%2C1.2-28.7%2C5.9-29.3%2C24%0A%09%09%09c-0.5%2C10.1%2C8.3%2C17.6%2C18.4%2C18.4c17.4%2C1.2%2C22.4-14.2%2C41.1-19.6c33.8-9.7%2C238%2C1.9%2C263.2%2C1.9c34.1%2C0%2C58.1-21.5%2C58.1-50.6%0A%09%09%09c0-10.3-3.2-20.9-7.6-25.2C550.9%2C105.9%2C551%2C105.3%2C551%2C104.8z%20M169.7%2C87.3c5.3-3.9%2C12.1-4.1%2C12.3%2C1.2c0.3%2C10.6-15.3%2C19.2-23.5%2C23%0A%09%09%09C158.2%2C103.8%2C160.8%2C93.6%2C169.7%2C87.3z%20M323%2C115c-0.6-0.2-1.4-0.2-2-0.2c-6.7%2C0-12.1%2C5.5-12.1%2C12.1c0%2C3.9%2C1.2%2C6.1%2C2.2%2C7.8%0A%09%09%09c-1.9%2C0.9-4%2C1.2-6.2%2C0c-1.7-1.4-3.4-2.5-3.1-7c3.7-11.4%2C8.6-26.3%2C13.2-40.8c0.9-1.1%2C2-2.2%2C3-3.1c3.1-2.6%2C12.1-2.8%2C11.7%2C7.8%0A%09%09%09C328.7%2C99.9%2C326.1%2C107.6%2C323%2C115z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M675.2%2C143.5c-2.6-5.9-2.8-15-3.9-24.5c-0.3-2.8-2.3-14.5-7.9-20.6c-5.5-6.1-12.5-8.6-13.6-9.2%0A%09%09%09c10-3.7%2C16-8.4%2C19.9-15.6c6.5-12.8%2C7.2-26.8-5-38.9c-3-3-7.5-5.3-13.4-7.3c-22.6-7.9-61.5%2C2.5-82.1-4.4c-6.5-2.2-7.8-7-8.6-10.6%0A%09%09%09c-0.6-3.4-5.1-0.6-6.9%2C2c-2.6%2C4.2-5.8%2C13.2%2C3.4%2C19.8c11.1%2C7.8%2C46.3%2C4.4%2C68.2%2C4.7c23.7%2C0.3%2C27.4%2C18.4%2C18.4%2C34.7%0A%09%09%09c-7%2C12.3-23.2%2C11.4-25.9%2C10.6c1.1-3.7%2C9.2-28.3%2C10.1-31.6c1.7-5.5-2.3-9.5-6.9-8.3c-6.1%2C2-5%2C4.8-24.8%2C9.8%0A%09%09%09c-6.7%2C1.7-3.6%2C5.6-1.7%2C9.2c0.6%2C1.1%2C0.5%2C3.3%2C0%2C5.4c-0.3%2C1.2-13.9%2C47.8-17.9%2C60c-1.2%2C3.6-3.3%2C4.5-5.8%2C6.4c-5.6%2C3.9-6.7%2C9.5%2C0.8%2C9.5%0A%09%09%09c11.8-0.2%2C22.7%2C0%2C33.8%2C0c3%2C0%2C5-1.4%2C5.1-4.4c0-5.1-6.1-5.1-6.2-8.1c2.3-9.3%2C6.7-26.6%2C9.5-35.7c8.6-0.6%2C15.3%2C1.4%2C19.8%2C4.7%0A%09%09%09c5.6%2C4%2C6.2%2C12.5%2C6.5%2C15.7c0.9%2C10.9%2C1.6%2C26.2%2C4.5%2C34.6c2%2C5.6%2C5.1%2C11.1%2C10.1%2C13.7c12.8%2C6.7%2C28.8%2C1.2%2C34.3-2.2%0A%09%09%09c4.2-2.3%2C5.5-5.5%2C3.9-8.3C691.4%2C151.5%2C681.3%2C156.9%2C675.2%2C143.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M987%2C47c-4-10.1-10.9-21-27.7-31.5c-9-5.6-20.4-8.3-30.7-9.3C888%2C2%2C846.5%2C23.6%2C810.2%2C30.6%0A%09%09%09c-9.7%2C1.9-29.7%2C0.6-31.1-12c-0.8-5.3-1.6-10.9-5-14.5c-4.8-5.1-15.4-5.8-22.4-0.5c-15.9%2C11.7-5.8%2C34.3%2C10.6%2C43.8%0A%09%09%09c13.9%2C7.9%2C30.5%2C6.9%2C42.5%2C4.7C851%2C43.6%2C887%2C17.2%2C929.5%2C20.8c52.6%2C4.5%2C60%2C65.9%2C27.3%2C95.9c-1.7%2C1.6-3.6%2C3.1-5.5%2C4.5%0A%09%09%09c-0.6-6.2-5-12.6-12.9-17.6c-2.8-1.9-5.9-3.6-8.6-5.3c-3.4-2.2-4.5-5.8-3.6-10c1.6-7.3%2C13.4-6.5%2C15.4-3.3%0A%09%09%09c-2.6%2C1.7-5.6%2C4.8-5.8%2C8.3c-0.2%2C5.6%2C4.2%2C10.4%2C9.8%2C10.6c9.8%2C0%2C14.2-10%2C11.1-17.9c-3.4-8.7-13.1-11.8-22.3-12.1%0A%09%09%09c-8.9-0.3-17.9%2C1.4-25.9%2C6.4c-7.2%2C4.5-10.3%2C10.7-10.9%2C17.1c-0.1%2C1-0.1%2C1.9%2C0%2C2.8c-0.5%2C0.4-1%2C1-1.4%2C1.5c-0.6%2C1.1-2.3%2C4.4-6.7%2C9.8%0A%09%09%09c-5%2C6.1-13.1%2C15.6-18.8%2C13.5c-2.3-0.8-3.9-3.3-1.4-12.1c0.3-1.1%2C5.3-15%2C10.6-29.9c6.2%2C0.2%2C10.9%2C0.2%2C10.9%2C0.2c1.4%2C0%2C2.6-0.8%2C3.3-2%0A%09%09%09l1.2-2.8c0.9-2.3-0.6-4.8-3.1-4.8l-9%2C0.2c1.4-3.9%2C3.9-11.1%2C3.9-11.1c0.3-1.1%2C0.6-2%2C0.9-3c1.4-4.5-2.3-7.9-6.1-6.9%0A%09%09%09c-2.5%2C0.9-8.7%2C8.4-16.5%2C13.7c-7.2%2C5-15.6%2C7.5-17.3%2C9.2c-1.1%2C1.2-1.4%2C3-1.2%2C4c0.5%2C3%2C3.9%2C3.3%2C9%2C3.3c-2.9%2C7.9-5.8%2C15.6-7.9%2C21.3%0A%09%09%09c-4.2%2C7.9-8.9%2C23.2-16.7%2C22.2c-3.1-0.3-3-4.7-2.2-8.4c0.5-2.8%2C4.5-15.1%2C4.7-22.1c0.2-8.7-5.8-18.8-18.1-19.3%0A%09%09%09c-5-0.2-9.3%2C2.2-13.2%2C5.3c1.2-1.9%2C1.9-2.8%2C2.2-4.5c0.2-1.7-1.1-3.1-2-3.3c-3-0.8-4.8%2C1.6-8.9%2C2.2c-5.3%2C0.9-14-1.1-14.6%2C2.2%0A%09%09%09c-0.8%2C5.1-2.2%2C9.5-4.8%2C16.5c-2.2%2C6.1-4.4%2C12-6.5%2C17.8c-3.1%2C6.2-7%2C12.3-12.3%2C12.7c-1.2%2C0.2-2.3-0.3-3.3-1.2%0A%09%09%09c-1.1-1.2-1.6-4.5%2C1.1-13.1c3.9-12.8%2C8.1-23.2%2C9.3-25.7c2.8-5.6%2C4.4-6.5%2C4.7-9c0.3-1.9-0.9-3.1-2-3.4c-3-0.6-4.7%2C1.6-8.9%2C2.2%0A%09%09%09c-5.3%2C0.9-14-1.1-14.5%2C2.2c-0.8%2C5.3-2.5%2C9.5-4.8%2C16.5c-6.9%2C20.1-9.2%2C25.5-9.8%2C27.4c-8.3%2C20.6-18.2%2C13.1-17-0.3%0A%09%09%09c0.5-4.7%2C1.2-10.4%2C3.1-16.2c5.1-15%2C10-20.4%2C16.2-20.6c2.3%2C4%2C8.7%2C2.6%2C9-2.3c0.2-3.7-2.8-7.3-12.6-6.5C709%2C76.7%2C692%2C90.9%2C687%2C109.6%0A%09%09%09c-3.1%2C11.2-0.9%2C21.2%2C5.5%2C27.7c11.5%2C12%2C29.1%2C6.9%2C36.1-1.7c3.1%2C7.8%2C15.7%2C13.3%2C30.6%2C3.6c-0.2%2C2.9%2C2.2%2C5.6%2C5.3%2C5.6h13.1%0A%09%09%09c2.2%2C0%2C4.2-1.6%2C5-3.7c5-13.9%2C8.7-26.2%2C14-38.8c1.7-4%2C4.2-8.4%2C6.1-11.1c4.8-6.7%2C13.9-9%2C9.8%2C3.7c-6.5%2C20.7-12.8%2C35.5-7%2C43.6%0A%09%09%09c6.5%2C8.8%2C22.1%2C10.9%2C38-5.6c0.6%2C2.1%2C1.3%2C3.7%2C2%2C4.6c7.2%2C10%2C25.9%2C10.9%2C46.4-12.5c5.5-6.1%2C8.9-11.2%2C10.9-15.1%0A%09%09%09c7.6%2C8.2%2C21.2%2C13.6%2C21.5%2C19.3c0.2%2C3.7-1.4%2C6.1-4.2%2C6.9c-3.4%2C0.9-5.9-0.3-6.9-3.9c-0.6-2.2-1.7-6.5-5.8-9%0A%09%09%09c-3.1-1.9-11.5-2.6-14.6%2C5.6c-1.6%2C7.3%2C3.1%2C12.3%2C9.2%2C14.3c7.5%2C2.3%2C16.8%2C2.3%2C17.9%2C2.3c6.1%2C0.2%2C11.7-0.2%2C17.1-1.4%0A%09%09%09c10.6-2.3%2C21.8-8.4%2C28.8-14.6c10.4-9.3%2C18.4-26%2C20.6-32.9C991.8%2C80.6%2C993.2%2C63.5%2C987%2C47z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
Cardinals: ZiPS projections give St. Louis' lineup a high-ceiling in 2023
By Josh Jacobs
What seemed to be the St. Louis Cardinals' biggest question mark each season has now turned into one of the best units in all of baseball, according to ZiPS, their lineup has a high ceiling in 2023.
Ummm....with full projections ZiPS *really* likes the Cardinals. It usually likes the Cardinals more than other projection systems but it really really likes the Cardinals more, I imagine, than other projection systems this year.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 18, 2023
Projections are what they are, projections. But they tend to give you a good idea of what both the ceiling and the floor of any given club are entering a season.
One of my favorite projections capture here is the 80th/20th percentile outcomes for each player. What would it look like if a player had one of their strongest seasons, and what does a "flop" look like? According to ZiPS, nine different Cardinals could be 25% above league average or higher in 2023. To put this into context, only six players on the Phillies have that kind of ceiling in 2023.
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x FanGraphs Depth Chart for the next team in ZiPS, the St. Louis Cardinals.#ZiPS23 #Cardinals pic.twitter.com/WbWrKjGrxc
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 18, 2023
That group of players does not even include Brendan Donovan or Jordan Walker in them either, who could easily join that conversation with continued development this coming year.
What does this all say about the Cardinals for next season?