Could the Cardinals target this starter to upgrade their rotation?

The Cardinals will be upgrading their rotation at the deadline. That's basically a guarantee. Unfortunately, the list of teams decidedly selling is very short at the moment. The Marlins, Rockies, White Sox, Athletics, and Angels are the only guaranteed sellers. Other teams, such as the Rangers, Cubs, and Nationals could sell, but a strong stretch between now and the trade deadline may convince them to roll the dice and chase October baseball.

Should the Rangers decide to sell, they'll have a number of attractive assets. Max Scherzer, Kirby Yates, and Nathan Eovaldi have been some of this year's most popular inclusions in various mock trades. These are excellent players in the midst of excellent seasons. Scherzer is a legend, Yates has pitched like an All-Star, and Eovaldi has tons of postseason experience. All three would make the team substantially better. All three are also likely to be expensive. Scherzer will be popular, and he seems to be healthy again. Yates is the best closer available. Eovaldi comes with an additional year of control, meaning it remains possible that they hold on to Eovaldi.

All of this hubbub seems to be ignoring another attractive asset: Jon Gray. Gray began his career with the Colorado Rockies, and though he showed plenty of promise during his seven years with the club, he never developed into the homegrown ace they believed he could be. After the 2021 season, Texas signed him to a four-year, $56MM deal. Though he hasn't pitched like a frontline starter, he has made improvements throughout his first three years with Texas. He's been available, making 24 and 29 starts in each of his first two years, respectively. He's also been effective, pitching to a 4.04 ERA over the last three seasons. This year, Gray owns a 4.01 ERA over 85.1 innings.

Perhaps Gray's most attractive attribute is his extra year of control; he's owed $14MM next season. Though that may feel steep, consider the fact that the Cardinals are paying Steven Matz (a similar pitcher in terms of effectiveness) $11MM to pitch half as many innings. Gray would make a solid addition to the Cardinals' rotation, and would likely displace Lynn. The Cardinals would then decline Lynn's team option, upgrade with Gray, and only spend an additional $3MM in the process.

Unfortunately, it's difficult to determine what Gray will cost to acquire. He won't be absurdly expensive. He only has the one extra year of control, he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he's on the wrong side of 30. Regardless, he's a capable pitcher up for grabs in a sellers' market. Texas will probably field a bevy of offers on their starters, and a bidding war could drive the value of all three up.

St. Louis could potentially package Gray with a reliever like David Robertson in order to simultaneously shore up both their bullpen in rotation in one aggressive move. Such a deal would be my top priority, though Texas may balk at such an idea, perhaps believing that packages may undervalue individual values. I've included a mock package below. Assuming a bidding war doesn't push things too far over the edge, the Cardinals should hold on to Hjerpe, Mathews, Hence, and Roby in a deal. It's unlikely they part with any of the system's best arms.

How do you think the Cardinals will address their needs at the upcoming deadline? Be sure to comment below with your own ideas and tune in to last week's episode of Dealin' The Cards, where hosts proposed their own deadline ideas! The Cardinals need to upgrade their rotation, but doing so will require creativity and a willingness to bring on some risk. Gray is the perfect candidate.