Cardinals: Ranking the 10 worst contracts in the National League Central Division

What exactly is a "bad" contract? In general, a bad contract is one that the organization ends up wishing they had not agreed to. This is most apparent in situations where a team cuts a former free agent signee or takes on significant money while shipping a player out of town. Obvious examples include Boston's Pablo Sandoval and Carl Crawford deals. In both cases, the team cut ties with the player involved and ended up paying them to play for another team.

It's a bit more difficult to discuss these contracts within the NL Central. This is because they don't typically happen. Teams in this division are much more risk-averse than the bigger spenders on the coasts. Now, that doesn't mean the division is chronically less competitive. Commentators have pushed the narrative that the sport's central divisions are weaker than those of the coasts. In 2023 that may be true, especially considering how disappointing the Cardinals have been.

But, it should be noted that from 2010-2020, the NL Central squads made 10 appearances in the National League Championship Series, including a string of 9 consecutive seasons between 2011 and 2019. Those 10 appearances outpaced both the East and West divisions. It simply means that the NL Central is a unique environment within the MLB landscape.

Perhaps the narrative that Central teams are less competitive comes from their relative lack of superstars. The NL Central in particular has largely struggled to land expensive free agents. At least four of the division's five teams should be classified as small or mid-market teams. Only the Chicago Cubs can be considered a true spender. This is why the Central is largely devoid of "bad contracts."

However, they do happen. No organization is immune to mistakes, although risk-averse organizations make mistakes of a smaller scale or caliber. This is how most bad deals in the central should be classified. While they are undoubtedly mistakes, they generally don't cripple organizations. Without further ado, let's get onto the list!

Here are the 10 worst contracts in the National League Central Division

1) Jameson Taillon

Over the 2022 offseason, the Cubs signed a huge free agent class, including several players on this list. Jameson Taillon stands head and shoulders above the rest as the worst signing of the bunch, and likely the worst contract in the division as a whole. Taillon stands a chance of reaching that true worst-case scenario: a scenario in which he is cut from the team.

The signing didn't look quite so terrible at the moment, though it wasn't exactly brilliant. After debuting with Pittsburgh in 2016, Taillon enjoyed four strong seasons with the Pirates. After missing all of 2020, Taillon resurfaced with the Yankees, where he posted two solid, albeit unspectacular, seasons. Taillon proved to be a fairly durable Yankee, making 61 starts and eating 321.2 innings over the course of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. His 4.08 ERA in that time was almost exactly league average.

The Cubs believed Taillon had room to improve, and perhaps saw the opportunity to buy low on a pitcher who had shown considerable upside at times in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for them, he has regressed in every way. After signing his four-year $68MM contract, Taillon has produced dreadful results. In 21 starts, Taillon has covered just 104 innings and has recorded an ERA of 5.71. Few pitchers with as many innings have posted worse results. Taillon's walk rate is slightly elevated, but it;'s the inflated home run rate that has rendered him completely ineffective. To some extent, Taillon has always struggled to prevent the long ball, though those struggles have climaxed in 2023, as he has allowed 17 already.

The Cubs will have him under contract until the end of the 2026 season, at which point Taillon will become a free agent. Over the remaining three full seasons, Taillon is owed $54MM, which will be split equally over the next three seasons. With so much time left on the contract, it remains possible that Taillon bounces back and helps the Cubs salvage some value. Such a development would certainly be welcome in Wrigleyville, but it's unlikely.

On the flip side, Taillon may continue to regress, which could further inflate his numbers, eventually leaving the team with no option other than to designate him for assignment. The high dollar amount (at least for this division), the current level of production, and the remaining years of this deal make it the worst in the division.

2) Aaron Ashby

The Brewers brought have brought up a crop of interesting young pitchers roughly five seasons ago. Their system produced Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, and Adrian Houser over a short period of time. As these pitchers acclimated to the major leagues, the Brewers quickly realized they had the makings of an elite rotation.

Depth players such as Eric Lauer, Brett Anderson, and Jordan Lyles were brought in as temporary stopgaps to keep the team afloat while they waited for their next wave of pitching talent, which included the likes of Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander. Perhaps believing that these pitchers had the potential to become long-term rotation stalwarts, the Brewers acted aggressively and bought out Ashby's pre-arbitration and arbitration years, locking him into a fairly valuable deal worth over $20MM.

Since signing that contract, Ashby has been awful. Instead of growing into a reliable rotation arm, he's been awful. Ashby arguably took a step backward between 2021 and 2022, as his walk rate, home run rate, and batting average against all made noticeable increases. His strikeout rate also decreased significantly, though it remained elite. Ashby had trouble staying in games past the fifth inning and likely overtaxed the Brewers' bullpen. It's highly unlikely that he'd be making more money via the arbitration process than the Brewers are paying him.

Ashby hasn't pitched thus far in 2023. Reports are not forthcoming, but the information available suggests that Ashby may miss the full season. After experiencing inflammation in Spring Training, Ashby received a platelet-rich plasma injection but has been unable to play. Even if healthy, he may not have a guaranteed roster spot. His deal will eventually increase to $7.7MM during the 2027 season. This is a significantly lower dollar amount than that of Taillon, which is why Ashby takes second and not first on this list.

3) Dansby Swanson

Swanson, like Taillon, was part of the Cubs' spending spree last offseason. Swanson was coming off of a career year in Atlanta. In his final season as a Brave, he was outstanding. He played in every single game, hit .277, smashed 25 homers, and finished 12th in NL MVP voting. He also won his first gold glove award. This was a well-timed career year, considering that before this, he'd been a consistently below-average offensive player.

The Cubs, acting aggressively, signed Swanson to a seven-year deal worth $177MM. This is far larger than any contract the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, or Brewers have ever given out to a free agent. Swanson hasn't been terrible in Chicago. In fact, he's been a very solid player this year, and his offensive numbers have decreased only slightly.

It's nothing near the disaster that the Javier Baez contract is. In most divisions, this deal may not even crack the top ten, but it finds itself here on this list because of the long commitment and the risk involved. Swanson will turn 30 over the offseason. The Cubs were fortunate to not tack on excessive years like the Phillies did with Turner, but it's still probable that Swanson will not be a $25MM player in his age 35 and 36 seasons.

4) David Bote

David Bote came up with the Cubs in 2018, near the end of their last window of contention. He was a below-average player, but most rookies are. He showed significant improvement in 2019, and it seemed as though he, Nico Hoerner, and others could take over from the previous core of position players, which included Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Addison Russell. Early in that 2019 season, Bote signed a five-year extension, buying out his arbitration and pre-arbitration years. It guaranteed him $15MM, a fairly hefty salary.

Bote appeared in 127 games in 2019 and, as previously mentioned, showed significant improvement. Since then, however, he has played just 183 games in the big leagues. He's hitting just .212 since 2019 and has posted an OPS of just .661. He's spent all of 2023 in the minors, and though the results are fairly encouraging, he has not been called back to Chicago.

Bote is only making about $10MM between 2022 and 2023, but that is $10MM wasted for the Cubs. Even though the Cubs run the highest payroll in the division, $10MM is nothing to sneeze at. That money could be used on a solid reliever, or it could go toward another young player. Instead, David Bote is raking in the big bucks while playing for the Iowa Cubs.

5) Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki signed a big deal with the Cubs after the 2021 season, and it was well deserved. In nine seasons in Japan's Nippon League, Suzuki mashed. He was a career .315 hitter. Suzuki was also just 27 years old when he made the switch to MLB. The contract made Suzuki a Cub for five years and paid him $85MM.

It's always difficult to predict how statistics in foreign leagues will translate to MLB. Miles Mikolas is a great example of this. Mikolas couldn't break into an MLB rotation, so he took his talents to Japan where he gained valuable experience over several seasons. When he returned to America, he was a front-of-the-rotation arm who has now made multiple all-star teams. Jose Abreu posted video game numbers in Cuba's league and now has an MVP award on his MLB resume. Suzuki has not yet found such success in the Majors. He's not even starting at the moment.

That doesn't mean he's been terrible. Suzuki has been worth 2.6 bWAR since signing his contract. He enjoyed a fairly strong rookie campaign, in which he was clearly an above-average producer. While the power didn't translate well, the bat-to-ball skills did. Suzuki's solid plate discipline also plugged other holes in his offensive profile. Now in his second season, everything has taken a step back. He's objectively a below-average hitter in 2023, and his average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage have all declined.

Suzuki's contract was backloaded, meaning he's still owed $56MM over the following three seasons. It's at least somewhat similar to St. Louis' ill-fated Dexter Fowler deal, though Fowler was three years older and significantly worse in his second season. While this contract isn't likely to turn into a true disaster, it seems likely to be a disappointment, landing it fifth on this list.

7) Drew Smyly

Smyly is a simple case, in fact much simpler than Contreras. He could easily find himself higher on the list, but the dollar amount is low enough to rank below some of these other names. He also retains the potential to live up to the deal, unlike some of the names above him. Smyly pitched well for the Cubs in 2022 to earn a new contract worth $19MM split between 2023 and 2024. It seems likely that he will exercise his $8.5MM player option for 2024, considering how terrible he's been in 2023.

Smyly's 2023 has been a disaster compared to his first season in Chicago. In 21 starts, his ERA sits at 5.01. Smyly has actually been lucky, as advanced metrics suggest he could be even worse than the surface indicates. Smyly is allowing baserunners like never before, as evidenced by his higher walk rate. He was recently demoted to the bullpen.

Now 34, it seems unlikely that he'll have some sort of career renaissance. Smyly will make $8.5MM next year, and he may not even do it as a member of the Cubs organization. He doesn't have a guaranteed spot in either the rotation or the bullpen. The only silver lining for the Cubs here is the low commitment in both years and dollars.

8) Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes is not the kind of name you want to see on a list like this. He's a truly otherworldly defender who could someday win platinum gloves. In fact, he could start doing that immediately, and seems like a solid bet to usurp Nolan Arenado as the sport's premium defensive third basemen at some point. It's his offensive profile that's full of question marks. After setting the world on fire in a 2020 cameo, Hayes has been a disappointing hitter to say the least.

This is probably his best full season offensively, and he currently carries an on-base percentage of .291. He draws very few walks and rarely taps into what some believed could be a solid power tool. Hayes signed an eight-year extension worth $70MM prior to the 2023 season. It'll keep him under club control through the 2030 season. While that deal is only in its first year, it's difficult to argue that Hayes has been anything other than disappointing.

It should also be noted that Hayes has had some injury concerns. This season alone has involved two separate IL stints, both related to back issues. Even if Hayes remains at this level of offensive production for the rest of his career, it won't be a terrible deal. His defense is that good. But, it will be a disappointing contract, and in the extremely conservative NL Central, that qualifies as a bad contract.

9) Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich is having a great season. Now, he's not reliving his glory days. He led the NL in OPS in both 2018 and 2019 and captured the 2018 NL MVP award. Frankly, he deserved the 2019 award as well, but I digress. After the second of those monstrous seasons, the Brewers locked Yelich up long-term, signing him for the next seven years. The deal was worth $188.5MM. The Brewers had a franchise cornerstone and were paying him like one.

2020 was a weird season for many players, but perhaps none suffered the way Yelich did. His production cratered. His OPS dipped by nearly 350 points, and it only got worse in 2021. He was a shell of his former self, being paid like a superstar. He also moved to left field full-time, as his arm had declined significantly. Yelich was no longer an elite defensive outfielder, and 2022 represented a third consecutive down year at the plate.

Then, 2023 happened. Yelich isn't an MVP candidate, but he's the Brewers' best hitter. He's leading them into September with a division lead and great odds to make the postseason. Is this current iteration of Yelich worth $26MM? Probably not, and that's why he finds himself on this list. He's making more than Paul Goldschmidt, the reigning MVP! But it's nowhere near the disaster it could have been. Yelich has rediscovered himself offensively, and advanced metrics suggest there could still be room for improvement.

Hoping for MVP-level performance is almost always futile, but Yelich doesn't need to be his 2019 self to justify the contract. He just needs to continue being the club's best hitter. The high monetary value and the long-term nature of the deal still carry risks. Yelich could easily regress in 2024 or 2025, and in that case, he would rocket up this list. But, for now, the deal is perfectly reasonable and Brewers' personnel are undoubtedly glad to have Yelich on their squad.

10) Steven Matz

I'm the conductor of the Steven Matz hype train. He's been so excellent over the last few weeks that he almost got left off this list. He's been the guy many hoped he could be back when the Cardinals signed him in late 2021. That deal was a four-year contract worth $44MM. Matz had an awful debut but righted the ship before an injury derailed his 2022 season. When he finally returned, another injury knocked him out for six more weeks. Matz returned in a bullpen role and quietly closed out a tough first season in St. Louis.

In 2023, Matz again opened poorly. An implosion against the Royals in May was enough to necessitate a move to the bullpen. There, Matz found his confidence and since returning, he's been nothing short of excellent. In his seven starts, the Cardinals are 6-1. Matz has pitched to a microscopic 1.86 ERA over that time and has kept the Cardinals in every game he's appeared in. His season totals look great too. Matz now has the lowest ERA of any Cardinals starter, as his mark currently sits at 3.86. He's been about as good as he was in Toronto, meaning the Cardinals are getting exactly what they paid for.

So why does he round out this list? Matz was hit with yet another trip to the IL yesterday. With the rest of his season in jeopardy, it's no longer easy to pencil his name into the 2024 rotation. The injury may cost him much of the leeway he's earned with fans and executives alike over the last two months.

Hopefully, Matz's trip to the IL is quick, and he returns in September to post more excellent results. A serious injury could even impact 2024, cementing Matz's status as an injury-riddled bust. Additional testing awaits, and while it certainly determines how Matz's 2023 season ends, it may also determine how his tenure with the Cardinals is remembered.