No one is emerging as Cardinals' everyday catcher for 2024

Cardinals catching option No. 1: Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras agreed to a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the Cardinals this past offseason. The longtime Cub made headlines when he announced his excitement to join his former rivals. He revealed his appreciation for Yadier Molina, which was reciprocated by the Cardinal legend. Unfortunately, Contreras got off to a slow start. He slumped throughout the first two months of the season. Meanwhile, the pitching staff faltered across the board, leading some to speculate that Contreras could be to blame.

These reports along with internal analysis prompted the Cardinals to announce in early May that Contreras would be temporarily relieved of his duties as catcher. While the Cardinals never expected Contreras to occupy an everyday role the way Molina did, they certainly planned on him catching the majority of their games for at least the first three or four years of his contract. To abandon that plan just one month into his Cardinals career revealed serious internal doubt. Reports surfaced of a plan to move Contreras to the outfield.

After several weeks, Contreras reclaimed his role as the Cardinals' starting catcher and has performed well since then. Miles Mikolas, among others, has cited Contreras' brilliant game-calling while commending his clubhouse presence.

Unsurprisingly, Contreras' success has brought back uncertainty, with some suggesting that the Cardinals may trade him at the upcoming deadline. Bob Nightengale included Contreras' name recently in a story about players who have been made available ahead of the deadline.

Many have expressed skepticism that Contreras will be dealt due to his large contract. In the likely event that he does remain in St. Louis, Contreras no longer profiles as a true everyday catcher. He is much more likely to enter some sort of timeshare for the 2024 season with one of Andrew Knizner or Iván Herrera. When not catching, the Cardinals can still use Contreras at DH or in the outfield.

Cardinals catching option No. 2: Andrew Knizner

Andrew Knizner has been with the Cardinals since 2019. Now in his fifth season, he looks to be a career backup. Though he generally hit well in the minors, he has yet to show real offensive upside at the MLB level. He added some power in 2023 but sacrificed roughly 60 points of OBP to do so. Either version of Knizner grades out as a significantly below-league-average hitter. Fortunately for Knizner, he has a strong defensive reputation. He is also well-liked in the clubhouse. Pitchers rave about his prep work and his ability as a receiver. The statistics largely bear this out, as Knizner has been a better defensive option in 2023 than Contreras.

Knizner likely has the least trade value of the three catchers. He has less control and far less offensive upside. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to predict what the Cardinals will do at the upcoming deadline. Will Knizner's low external value prevent a move? Or will his low internal value facilitate a move? Knizner's strong defensive resume and his reputation as a popular guy in the clubhouse make him a more valuable player than his surface-level statistics show. He is, at the very worst, a slightly above-average backup catcher who provides strong leadership.

Using the past several seasons, it is safe to assume that as long as Knizner remains on the roster, he will serve as the backup catcher. If Knizner makes the 2024 Opening Day roster, he is likely to play between 60 and 70 games. Some of these games will represent starts, but many will be games in which Knizner enters as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement. His bat is not strong enough to force his way into the lineup as a DH or at another position.

Cardinals catching option No. 3: Iván Herrera

Iván Herrera, though perhaps the most complete catcher on the Cardinals' 40-man roster, remains the clear third option. After struggling at the major league level in 2022, Herrera has broken out in a big way in 2023. Herrera has added power, sharpened his bat-to-ball skills, and improved his plate discipline. All of those changes have contributed to his .988 OPS in Memphis. During his brief time with the Cardinals, Herrera impressed, hitting .348 while drawing rave reviews for his work with the pitching staff.

Herrera's value is objectively higher now than it was at this point last season. He has demonstrated the potential for strong offensive production while also playing solid defense. This has left some eager to trade the young catcher with the hopes that he could be part of a package to acquire elite starting talent. Others believe that Herrera's strong performance has solidified his spot within the Cardinals' future catching plans. The Cardinals have been reluctant to move on from him in the past, but this deadline is likely to reveal their long-term plans for Herrera. Should Herrera remain on the roster through the deadline, he is likely to see significant time at the catching position in 2024.

It is worth mentioning that the Cardinals demoted Herrera on July 24. Cardinals brass noted that it was a "numbers game." This demotion, though disappointing, is not worth reading too much into, especially as the deadline is likely to free up some spots on the active roster.

Other catching options for the Cardinals

It remains possible that the Cardinals will turn to a catcher who is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Cardinals boast impressive organizational depth at the catching position. A veteran like Tres Barrera stands a chance of remaining with the club in a depth role for 2024. He made a brief cameo in May of 2023, but failed to impress. Barrera, even if called upon, is unlikely to receive much of an opportunity given his age and low ceiling.

Pedro Pages probably has the best chance to make his MLB debut at the catcher position for the 2024 Cardinals. He offers some offensive upside and has already reached AAA. This year, Pages has performed strongly at Springfield, hitting a .796 OPS. He has begun to tap into his power more regularly, significantly raising his stock. Pages almost certainly has a higher ceiling than Barrera and is thus much more likely to remain with the club over the offseason, though at 24 years old, he may not have much time left.

Perhaps Leonardo Bernal offers the player profile most similar to that of Molina. Bernal is already a plus defender with the potential for a strong bat. Bernal, at just 19, is currently playing in A ball with Palm Beach. Barring a shockingly aggressive promotion from the Cardinals, Bernal is unlikely to debut before 2025.

Another interesting option in the lower levels is Jimmy Crooks III. Crooks, at 21, is a bit older but is currently playing at A+ ball. He has more upside offensively than defensively but still has a chance to be an MLB regular.

And that largely details the Cardinals' options at the catcher position. Though there are many, it remains unlikely that one separates himself from the rest of them. If Contreras, Herrera, or Knizner is dealt at the upcoming deadline, it becomes possible that the Cardinals go off the board entirely and acquire another catcher. Though unlikely, this too is a possibility worth monitoring moving forward.

So where does this leave the Cardinals?

Cardinals fans should expect a timeshare in 2024. Entering 2023, the Cardinals hoped that Contreras would catch roughly 115 games. Nobody is likely to catch that many games in 2024. In fact, if nobody is dealt, it is unlikely that anyone even reaches 85 games caught. The most likely scenario is a timeshare between Contreras and Herrera, with Knizner mixing in occasionally.

However, even if all three catchers remain with the organization through the deadline, one or more of them could also be moved over the offseason. If this occurs, the remaining catcher(s) would obviously receive more opportunities.

The most likely to be traded at this point is Knizner. His departure would vacate some starts for Herrera, and could ultimately allow Herrera to emerge as the team's primary catcher. His all-around profile makes him the most likely of the three to someday emerge as the primary catcher and start 110 games at the catcher position. In this case, Contreras would shift to a DH and potentially OF role.