Cardinals Black Friday: 3 bargain deals to buy and 3 bargain deals to avoid

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Welcome to Black Friday! It is the most wonderful time of the year. You can hear Andy Williams singing the Christmas classic in the background while you are racing through the stores to find bargain deals. Many teams in MLB will be doing the same to fill out their rosters. TheSt. Louis Cardinals are going shopping for pricey pitching which will max out their 2024 budget. With additional roster positions needed to be filled, the remaining budget will be prudent to find bargain deals.

Here are three Black Friday deals the Cardinals need to purchase and three they need to avoid.

To purchase:

Hyun Jin-Ryu

Once a perennial Cy Young candidate, Ryu has slipped away with age. He will be in his age 37 season with over 1000 innings pitched in the big leagues. Recent injuries have plagued him, and the Blue Jays probably regret signing him to a 4-year deal for $80 million. With his return in 2023 for 11 appearances, however, Ryu showed he still has some gas left in the tank. He is lacking heavily in fastball velocity and strikeout percentage. But Ryu is not allowing hard-hit balls, producing a high level of ground balls, and is not walking many batters. If the Cardinals stay true to their defense, Ryu would fit right in as a depth piece to the rotation.

Ryne Stanek

With a complete pitching depth overhaul, the Cardinals are going to want reliable arms in the back end of the bullpen. The team is lacking swing-and-miss potential and needs to add more with the trade of Jordan Hicks and not overuse Ryan Helsley. Ryne Stanek fits the role perfectly. His fastball velocity was in the 96th percentile and his Whiff% was in the 82nd percentile. He was middle of the pack with strikeout% but he did have the lowest BB% of his career in 2023. He will need to focus more on his secondary pitches to generate more soft contact, but the potential is definitely there. The cherry on top? Stanek is a local product in the St. Louis area.

Jason Heyward

Before you overreact………hear me out. It is expected that Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill will be traded for pitching depth this off-season. Alec Burleson is drawing trade interest, Tommy Edman might end up being a surprise trade piece if the price is right, and Victor Scott II is on the rise through the pipeline. It was once thought the Cardinals have deep outfield depth, but that can be changing after this off-season. The Cardinals lineup has lacked left-handed hitters for years and can always add short-term depth until the next wave of prospects is ready.

Heyward is already familiar with the Cardinals organization and is no longer the star he once was. He adapted to this new role with the Dodgers and exceeded expectations in 2023. Given he is going into his age-35 season, he will not be getting a long-term contract. His defense is still elite and his bat has some juice left in it. He makes a great fit for a short-term investment at a fairly cheap price.

To avoid:

Jack Flaherty

An old familiar friend. Given he is one of the youngest arms on the market, he should be expected to receive many multi-year offers. But as we all witnessed, Flaherty was bad in 2023. He pitched 109 innings with STL where he finished with a slash line of 7-6 record with a 4.43 ERA, 8.7 SO/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 9.5 H/9. Mozeliak created his own mess with the 2023 season, but he did well with the trades he made at the deadline.

Flaherty got even worse in BAL and even got booted from the starting rotation. In 34.2 IP with BAL, his slash line was 1-3 with 6.75 ERA, 10.9 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 11.9 H/9. Looking at Flaherty’s baseball savant page, his only elite percentiles were in average exit velocity and extension. The remaining percentile rankings have him deep in the blue. A fan favorite and once-promising future ace is available to bring back for a second chance. But with his chronic shoulder injury and a steep fall-off in 2023, it is best both parties go their separate ways.

Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco has been an under-appreciated pitcher for years. He was a reliable staple to the Cleveland Indians rotation from 2011-2020. Once he was traded to the Mets with Francisco Lindor, Father Time caught up to him. He had a solid 2022 campaign but fell off considerably in 2023. He only places in above average percentiles in GB% and Extension. Every other aspect of his game is far below league averages. With a 6.80 ERA and 1.700 WHIP going into a contract walk year, he will not be looked at by very many teams looking to contend. This is a pitcher well past his prime and needs to be avoided by the Cardinals.

David Peralta

Sticking with the left-handed bat needed for lineup depth, it is fair to say the Cardinals will look at several options to see if they can make the move fit for their future club. This is considering they trade many current players for pitching. David Peralta has been linked to Cardinals rumors for years and was once even a prospect within the organization. But his desired value is in the rearview mirror at this point in time.

He shows strong percentiles in xBA, hard-hit%, whiff%, and K%. So he can be a tough AB for any pitcher given he makes strong contact when swinging at hittable pitches. But Peralta is at the bottom of the league in BB% and chases pitches at a high rate. He is not getting on base or slugging at the rates he used to. Peralta still shows lots of value and teams will offer him 2-3 year deals this off-season. The Cardinals need to avoid this and look at other options.

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