Cardinals: 3 reasons why Jordan Walker won't make the Opening Day roster

#1 - Allow Jordan Walker to get some more seasoning

It is becoming more and more common for elite talents like Walker to skip the Triple-A level and end up in the Major Leagues, but even so, Walker is still just 20, and there is no need to rush him at this moment. The club needs to prioritize his development over all things, and if they think it would be best for him to get at-bats in Triple-A, then that is what they need to do.

Over in their excellent Cardinals' prospect rankings, @CardinalsReek and @KareemSSN noted that as a hitter, Walker still has some room to improve in key areas like Chase% and SweetSpot%, which rank below average compared to other MiLB hitters. Still, Walker does so much damage with the balls he hits, that he is not negatively impacted by those issues as much as the typical hitter would be. But if Walker wants to continue on his elite trajectory, improving these, as well as getting more of his batted balls into the homerun launch angle, will be key for his development as a hitter.

That may feel a bit nitpicky, and it is. Walker is as good of a hitter as we've seen from a 20-year-old and has excellent mechanics that should propel him moving forward. Even so, setting Walker up for as much success as possible is not a bad desire from the front office.

The other area, which could use more work as he progresses, is Walker's defense. Since transitioning to being an outfielder midway through the 2022 season, Walker has been impressive for sure, but he has a ways to go before he maximizes his potential in the field. That's not a knock on Walker, just the reality of the club waiting so long to have him switch positions.

Walker has an elite arm and has already shown that he has a cannon for an arm, and paired with his sneaky good speed (he stole 20 bases last year before being asked to stop stealing to prevent an unnecessary injury), this gives Walker a high ceiling as a corner outfielder in today's game. There is no reason to believe Walker won't be a good outfielder defender, it's just about getting him more reps out in the field.

Should Walker answer these concerns in Spring Training, it'll be very difficult to leave him off the Opening Day roster, It's clear that Walker has talent that the Cardinals' system has not seen since Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras, but that does not mean they need to rush him. Especially in light of the second reason he won't be on the Opening Day roster.

#2 - The Cardinals need to find out what they have in their other outfielders

Let's be clear, whenever Jordan Walker debuts in St. Louis, he will be an everyday outfielder for them moving forward. It is in the best interest of the club and Walker that he is playing all the time, continuing to develop his abilities while having a major impact on the big league club. What that means is that the Cardinals need to figure out who the odd man out of Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar is going forward.

Sure, one of these four guys can be the designated hitter each day, but with guys like Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson also fighting for at-bats, opportunities are getting few and far between. Although Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic will provide some insight into this for the club, that likely won't be a large enough sample size for the Cardinals to make a decision on any of their outfielders.

Nootbaar has received a ton of hype this off-season due to his mini breakout in 2022 and is looking to build upon that in 2023. O'Neill was an MVP candidate in 2021 and was slowed down by injuries last season. Carlson had an excellent rookie season after being a top prospect in all of baseball as well but was also weighed down by injuries last season. The tricky part for St. Louis is that any of these three guys could excel this season, but each of them also has the potential to fall out of favor. The only way to truly find out is by giving them a chance to prove themselves.

The club did this with Paul DeJong in 2022. Gorman was on fire in Double-A, and the clear solution was to move Tommy Edman to shortstop and let Gorman take over at second base. But the club decided to let DeJong have every chance to keep his job, and once he proved it was not going to work, they made the change. If the club was willing to do that with DeJong, you'd have to imagine they'd have longer leashes for their outfield trio.

Now, if any one of the three, or any of the club's DH options, just aren't figuring it out during the first month of the season, you'd expect to see St. Louis bring Walker up and never look back. If things go well for their current core though, you could see Walker stay in Memphis until the summer, when the Cardinals can move some of their other talent for pitching to pave way for Walker or swap out someone like Burleson until they make such a move.

From a management position, this does make a lot of sense. You'd only be hurting yourself if you did not at least see what you have in your current options before moving to Walker, which will be a significant roadblock for him as he looks to make the Major League roster. Still, there is one more thing that may tip the scales for St. Louis when it comes to Walker's debut.

#3 - Delaying Jordan Walker's service time clock

I know, I know. It's one of the most frustrating aspects of roster management. No player should be stopped from playing on the biggest stage as a way of messing with their service time, but it is a reality within the game of baseball. I do not think this will be the driving factor for St. Louis like it has been for other clubs, but I do think it will play a part for sure.

If St. Louis waits to call up Walker until midway through the season, they will delay his eventual free agency from after the 2028 season to after 2029, which is significant when talking about a player of Walker's caliber. If Walker ends up being one of the best players in baseball, he'll hit free agency at just 27 years old, which will line him up for a massive contract. This is something the Cardinals have to consider, and one reason why I think they should consider extending him within the next calendar year.

The Cardinals could even "double dip" a little bit here as well and get Walker's production down the stretch in 2023, and have him still be Rookie of the Year eligible in 2024. Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, and Francisco Alvarez, who rank above Walker on MLB.com's top 100 prospects,
all made their big league debuts last season, but will now have a full season to produce for their club and potentially win Rookie of the Year.

While you may think that defeats the purpose of holding back Walker since he would then occur the lost service time, it would give the Cardinals a significant track record at the Major League level before exploring an early extension with him, if that is something the club is interested in doing.

If the club had a clear hole in the outfield right now, this should not even be a conversation, but since the club has options and Walker is so young, it's fair to consider these factors as well as on-the-field performance.

At the end of the day, Walker is an excellent young man, and he is going to do everything in his power to force the Cardinals' hand this Spring. The front office wants that. They want Walker to be the kind of player that makes them reshuffle their roster because he is too good to leave off of it. If Walker does so, and the club still doesn't give him a spot, then we will have a different conversation. But if Walker is kept down in Triple-A briefly to begin the year for these three reasons, then it's hard to blame them.

But should Walker prove he is on the cusp of stardom already, one of their outfielders or DH options is clearly underperforming, or an injury occurs, we should see Walker starting the Cardinals against the Toronto Blue Jays on Opening Day.