Beating the odds: Cardinals team and player betting props

DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook have published prop bets for the St. Louis Cardinals win total and prop bets for two players on the team. Both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have prop bets relating to home run totals in 2024, and the Cardinals' win total over/under has been set. I'll explore all three of these figures and see if they will be beaten. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cardinals Win Total

DraftKings: 84.5 wins
FanDuel: 86.5 wins

Both of these win totals say more about the state of the National League Central than they do the Cardinals as a whole. St. Louis is projected to win the division on both sites; a win total under 90 wins for a division winner is paltry. However, the Cardinals can take advantage of a weak division.

DraftKings and FanDuel are close in their total wins odds, but 2 wins is actually a decent gap. Using projection systems like PECOTA, FanGraphs, and others, we can glean some information on the team's win total. PECOTA projects the team to win 85.5 games, surpassing DraftKings' odds but not FanDuel's. FanGraphs projects the Cardinals for just 84.1 wins next year, a figure below both odds sites.

Projections systems such as PECOTA and FanGraphs are close to DraftKings' and FanDuel's odds; betting the over feels bold, but betting the under on a team that is on a mission seems illogical.

Paul Goldschmidt total home runs

DraftKings: 26.5 home runs

Last year, Goldschmidt hit 25 home runs. The last time he hit under 25 home runs prior to last year was back in 2016 when he hit only 19 home runs in 705 plate appearances. Goldy had 687 plate appearances last year, the fourth-most in his career. Age is definitely catching up to the first baseman, but if he is fully healthy again next year and if he has just a little bit more luck I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 27 or more home runs next year.

Nolan Arenado career home runs

DraftKings: Will Nolan Arenado hit his 350th career home run in the 2024 regular season?
Yes: -120
No: -110

DraftKings is saying Nolan Arenado is more likely to reach 350 career home runs next year than he is to not hit that milestone. He is sitting at 325 home runs, meaning he only needs 25 more home runs to reach 350.

Arenado hit 26 home runs in only 612 at-bats last year, and the last time he hit under 25 home runs (excluding 2020) was in 2014 when he hit only 18 long balls. Arenado has hit 30 or more home runs in 7 of the last 8 seasons, once again excluding 2020. I fully expect him to reach the 350-home run milestone next year.